(09:04, RBK-Ukraine/VP Kuleba, HIGH): Major fire at Port "Pivdennyi" (Odesa) following a targeted RF strike; significant damage reported to two local energy infrastructure objects.
(09:02, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces reportedly seized Vilcha (south of Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast). Offensive operations are now shifting toward Vovchanski Khutory and Grafovka.
(08:54, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): Reported targeted assassination/attack on a high-ranking Russian General (unnamed, veteran of the 90s). Source is issuing direct threats of "retribution" against Ukrainian leadership.
(09:01, Operativnyi ZSU, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Unverified claims circulating regarding the dismissal of Andriy Yermak (Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine) and his entire staff.
(08:48, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Successful UAF defensive action in Sotnytske Kozachok (Kharkiv) by "Strix" unit and 22nd OMBr, utilizing FPV drones to disrupt RF incursions.
(09:00, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Intensification of drone-led combat operations in the Hulyaipole sector (Zaporizhzhia).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Vovchansk Sector: RF has reportedly secured Vilcha after several weeks of fighting (09:02, Colonelcassad). This move threatens to outflank UAF defenses in Vovchansk from the south and suggests a broadening of the RF "buffer zone" offensive.
Sumy Border: RF military bloggers (Kots, Poddubny) are reporting a "breakthrough" in Sumy Oblast (08:41). While UAF confirms heavy fighting and successful FPV strikes on RF personnel in the region (09:03, Butusov Plus), the exact depth of the RF incursion remains fluid.
Tactical Defense: The 22nd OMBr and "Strix" unit are actively engaged in Sotnytske Kozachok, indicating that RF is attempting to establish multiple points of entry to fix UAF reserves along the border (08:48).
Southern Axis (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Strategic Logistics (Odesa): Following the restoration of the M-15 highway, RF has shifted focus to maritime and energy infrastructure. The strike on Port "Pivdennyi" and two energy facilities (09:04, RBK-Ukraine) is a direct attempt to degrade Ukraine's grain export capacity and winter energy resilience.
Zaporizhzhia (Hulyaipole): Increased RF drone activity and reported "Battle for Hulyaipole" suggest a potential activation of this dormant sector to prevent UAF from shifting forces to the Donbas or Kharkiv fronts (09:00).
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Ongoing pressure persists in the Slavyansk direction (Siverskyi Donets bend), though no significant territorial changes were reported in this 60-minute window.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): RF is executing a multi-prong strategy: (1) expanding the Northern buffer zone to threaten Vovchansk/Sumy, (2) systematically dismantling Odesa's port/energy infrastructure to counter UAF logistical gains, and (3) initiating "retribution" strikes following the reported loss of a senior General.
Assassination Response: The rhetoric from RU mil-channels regarding the "General who lived among ordinary people" (08:55) indicates a high probability of a kinetic response targeting UA Command and Control (C2) nodes in the next 12-24 hours.
Internal RF Policy: Significant domestic shifts (cutting 45k university seats, debt forgiveness rumors) suggest the Kremlin is reallocating resources toward a long-term war footing and attempting to maintain social stability amidst high casualties.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Response: UAF continues to rely heavily on FPV drone units ("Strix," 22nd OMBr) to blunt RF cross-border incursions where traditional infantry presence may be thin.
Strategic ISR: UAF is monitoring the "Rzeszow 2.0" rumors and logistics hardening; however, the reported political shake-up at the OPU (Yermak dismissal) could create a temporary vacuum in strategic decision-making if confirmed.
Information environment / disinformation
OPU Stability: The claim of Yermak’s dismissal (09:01) is currently the primary focus of RU-aligned disinformation to induce domestic instability. Treat as LOW confidence until official UA state confirmation.
SVR Narratives: Russian Foreign Intelligence (SVR) is pushing a "regime flight" narrative (08:49) to coincide with tactical pressure in Sumy and Kharkiv, aiming to degrade UAF morale.
Hybrid Distractions: TASS reports on a Louvre diamond heist (09:03) and magnetic storms (08:45) serve as "noise" to clutter the information space and distract from domestic RF issues (education cuts).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued RF expansion toward Vovchanski Khutory and further missile/drone strikes on Odesa port infrastructure.
MDCOA: A "Decapitation Strike" or high-precision missile attack on Kyiv government quarters in retaliation for the Russian General's death (08:54).
Sumy Sector: Potential for RF to attempt a deeper thrust to sever the H-07 highway if the "breakthrough" reported by Kotsnews is not contained.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verification of OPU Leadership: Immediate confirmation required from official Ukrainian state channels regarding the status of Andriy Yermak and the OPU staff.
Vilcha Confirmation: Need satellite or geolocated visual BDA to confirm RF control of Vilcha and the current status of the Vovchansk-Kharkiv GLOC.
General's Identity: Identify the Russian General targeted (08:54) to assess which RF unit/sector is most likely to launch retaliatory operations.
Port Pivdennyi BDA: Determine the extent of damage to the grain terminals; assess if the port remains operational for the "Grain Corridor."
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
C2 Protection: Implement "Red Level" security protocols for all senior UAF and political leadership; relocate to hardened facilities in anticipation of RF retaliatory strikes (ref: 08:54).
Air Defense (Odesa): Prioritize point defense for Port Pivdennyi and remaining energy substations in the Odesa region; RF is clearly "bracketing" these assets (ref: 09:04).
Northern Reinforcement: Deploy tactical reserves to the Vovchansk south-sector to prevent the encirclement of the city following the reported fall of Vilcha (ref: 09:02).
Counter-Disinfo: Disseminate a clear "Proof of Life/Position" for OPU leadership to neutralize the Yermak dismissal narrative before it impacts frontline morale (ref: 09:01).
