(07:41, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Confirmed death of Major General Fanil Sarvarov following the Moscow explosion. Initially reported as a high-ranking officer, his identity as a Major General is now verified.
(07:58/08:02, Оперативний ЗСУ / РБК-Україна, HIGH): Ukrenergo and MinEnergo confirm a massed night attack on energy infrastructure across five regions: Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zhytomyr.
(07:58, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Significant blackouts reported in Odesa Oblast following the strikes on local energy nodes.
(08:01, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Russian Su-34 aircraft utilized glide bombs (UMPK) against UAF armored vehicle concentrations in the "Yug" (Southern) Group of Forces area of responsibility.
(08:02, Народная милиция ДНР, MEDIUM): Video evidence indicates active FPV drone strikes by the 68th ORB (Separate Reconnaissance Battalion) against UAF positions in the vicinity of Fyodorovka.
(08:01, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian volunteer groups (ZOV LNR) have initiated fundraising for the "2025-2026 Winter Campaign," indicating expectations of a prolonged, multi-year conflict and continued reliance on non-state logistics.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Odesa: Critical infrastructure status. The region is experiencing "significant" power outages (07:58, Оперативний ЗСУ). This confirms the success of the RF's multi-wave strike package mentioned in the previous report.
Zaporizhzhia: Confirmed kinetic activity against energy objects (08:02, РБК-Україна). Concurrently, local authorities are engaged in civilian housing restoration from previous strikes (07:52, Запорізька OVA).
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Donbas):
Fyodorovka Sector: High intensity of FPV drone operations reported. The 68th ORB is actively targeting UAF defensive positions (08:02, Народная милиция ДНР).
"Yug" Group Area: RF is escalating the use of standoff aviation (Su-34 with glide bombs) to target UAF tactical reserves and armor (08:01, MoD Russia), likely attempting to disrupt UAF local counter-maneuvers.
Rear/Strategic Infrastructure:
Energy Grid: The RF has launched what MinEnergo describes as a "Christmas week" offensive against the energy sector (08:02, РБК-Україна). The simultaneous targeting of five regions indicates a coordinated effort to collapse the national grid during a period of peak winter demand.
Zhytomyr: Logistics disruption confirmed by RF sources (07:48, Операция Z), corroborating earlier UAF reports of rail-targeted strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
C2 Attrition: The confirmed death of Major General Fanil Sarvarov (07:41, Colonelcassad) represents a significant loss to the RF General Staff's operational training apparatus. This may lead to a temporary vacuum in the coordination of newly deployed units.
Tactical Aviation: The persistent use of glide bombs (UMPK) remains the primary RF tool for neutralizing UAF armored advantages. The transition to "Yug" group targets suggests a focus on the southern sectors of the Donetsk front.
Logistics Sustainment: RF reliance on volunteer funding for winter gear (08:01, Colonelcassad) suggests that despite high-level industrial output, frontline units still suffer from "last-mile" supply gaps in specialized equipment.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Infrastructure Defense: UAF/State services are actively engaged in damage control. In Odesa, emergency protocols are in place to manage the blackout (07:58).
Legal/Civilian Domain: The State Tax Service (DPS) has issued clarifications for refugees regarding foreign income (07:42), and the Prosecutor General has successfully restored 84 hectares of state land in the Kyiv region (08:00), indicating functional domestic governance despite the air campaign.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Framing: Finnish President Stubb's assessment that Russia's goal remains the "destruction of Ukraine" is being circulated in UAF channels to reinforce the necessity of continued resistance (07:48, Оперативний ЗСУ).
Cynicism/Morale: Internal UAF-aligned channels (Hayabusa) are displaying high levels of cynicism regarding European security guarantees (08:01), possibly reflecting frustration with the pace of Western support.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely continue the air campaign against energy nodes, specifically targeting repair crews in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia to prevent grid stabilization.
MDCOA: RF tactical success near Fyodorovka, supported by massed FPV strikes, could lead to a localized breakthrough if UAF electronic warfare (EW) assets are unable to suppress the 68th ORB's drone swarms.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA (Battle Damage Assessment): Urgent requirement for high-resolution imagery or ground reports from the Odesa energy sites to determine the duration of the projected blackout.
Armor Status: Identify specific UAF units targeted by Su-34 glide bombs in the "Yug" sector to assess remaining combat effectiveness (08:01, MoD Russia).
Fyodorovka Intensity: Determine the depth of RF drone penetrations near Fyodorovka; identify if this is a prelude to a larger ground assault.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
Energy Prioritization: Deploy mobile generator units to Odesa to maintain critical medical and water services until the grid is stabilized (07:58).
EW Reinforcement (Fyodorovka): Urgently redeploy tactical EW assets to the Fyodorovka sector to counter the 68th ORB's FPV operations (08:02).
C2 Continuity: Following the Sarvarov assassination, assume RF special services are actively planning reciprocal high-profile hits. Maintain "Tier 1" security for all General Staff officers.
