(18:02, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Foreign Minister Sybiha officially demanded the return of civilians kidnapped by RF forces in the Sumy border region, confirming the "abduction" narrative from the 1705Z report.
(17:46, КіберБорошно, HIGH): Visual confirmation (photos) of the damaged Russian tanker Valery Gorchakov at Pier 69 in the Port of Rostov following a strike on Dec 18; confirms UAF deep-strike capability against maritime/energy infrastructure.
(17:36, Операция Z, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim RF "Center" Group is storming an "encircled" Myrnohrad and has advanced into the Dnipropetrovsk region. UNCONFIRMED; likely psychological operation/propaganda given known battlefield geometry.
(17:41, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM): RF Iskander-M cluster munition strike reported on sunflower oil storage reservoirs in Odesa Oblast, targeting agricultural logistics.
(18:04, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the US delivered a "clear signal" to the RF during closed-door negotiations in Miami regarding the war's conclusion.
(18:04, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH): Combat footage confirms a failed RF amphibious landing attempt on the Ukrainian-controlled right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
(17:39, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): Active UAV groups detected moving from south to north through the Donetsk region.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Sumy):
The situation is transitioning from a border breach to a hybrid hostage crisis. Confirmation of civilian abductions (18:02) indicates RF forces are consolidating in the "gray zone" around Hrabovske and using the local population as human shields or bargaining chips.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad):
Extreme pressure on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis. RF claims of "encircling" Myrnohrad (17:36) are likely premature but indicate a heavy tactical focus on bypassing Pokrovsk to the north. UAF drone units continue to provide the primary defensive screen, with weekly summaries showing high RF equipment attrition (17:57). The reported death of a UAF SSO battery commander (18:03) suggests intense counter-battery fire in this sector.
Southern Sector (Kherson/Odesa):
RF remains active but unsuccessful in riverine operations; a recent landing attempt in Kherson was repelled with visual evidence (18:04). Odesa continues to face precision strikes, with RF shifting targeting from energy to agricultural exports (sunflower oil) to maximize economic disruption (17:41).
Strategic/Deep Rear:
The confirmation of the Rostov tanker strike (17:46) demonstrates that UAF kinetic reach remains a threat to RF internal logistics, even as RF attempts to escalate its own missile campaign.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RF Group "Center" is attempting a breakout toward the Dnipropetrovsk regional border. While the claim of crossing the border is UNCONFIRMED, the intent to project threat into a new administrative region is clear.
Strategic Course of Action: RF is using "economic terror" (targeting oil reservoirs) and "human terror" (Sumy abductions) to force concessions during the ongoing "Miami negotiations."
Capabilities: Use of Iskander-M with cluster warheads (17:41) against soft economic targets suggests a shift toward destroying Ukraine’s export potential.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and likely intercepting UAV groups in Donetsk (17:39). Drone coordination hubs in Pokrovsk report sustained success in degrading RF tactical advances (17:57).
Diplomatic/Political: President Zelensky confirmed "constructive" progress with US counterparts on security guarantees and post-war reconstruction (17:46).
Counter-Amphibious: Successful denial of the Dnipro right bank in Kherson reinforces the stability of the southern defensive line.
Information environment / disinformation
"Dnipropetrovsk Incursion" Narrative: RF channels (17:36) are heavily promoting an advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is currently assessed as DISINFORMATION intended to induce panic in Ukrainian rear areas, as no visual evidence or UAF confirmation exists for such a deep penetration.
High-Level Diplomacy: The "Miami negotiations" are being framed by both sides. RF emphasizes "proposals review" while Ukrainian sources emphasize "clear signals" from the US, indicating a high-stakes messaging battle over who holds the initiative.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will maintain high-intensity drone and missile pressure on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis while continuing localized terror raids in the Sumy border region.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the claimed "encirclement" of Myrnohrad to launch a surprise mechanized thrust toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, attempting to capitalize on the psychological weight of their propaganda.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad Perimeter: Urgent requirement for satellite or drone imagery to verify the "encirclement" status of Myrnohrad.
Dnipropetrovsk Border Status: Confirm if any RF Sabotage and Reconnaissance Groups (DRGs) have actually crossed the administrative border.
Rostov BDA: Detailed damage assessment of the Valery Gorchakov to determine if it was a total loss or repairable, impacting RF fuel logistics in the Sea of Azov.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB SUMMARY)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict is reaching a critical inflection point in the East. RF is attempting to bypass the main Pokrovsk fortifications by moving toward Myrnohrad.
Economic Warfare: The Iskander strike on sunflower oil reservoirs (17:41) marks a transition from energy-grid targeting to direct attacks on Ukraine's agricultural sector.
Diplomatic Signaling: The battlefield escalation (Sumy kidnappings, Pokrovsk pressure) is likely timed to provide the Kremlin with maximum leverage during the secret Miami talks.
Actionable Recommendation:INCREASE AIR DEFENSE ALERT IN DNIPROPETROVSK. Even if the RF ground advance is a fabrication, the narrative shift suggests that the region will soon be targeted by increased long-range strikes to "soften" the area for future claims.
