(15:43, DeepState/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Detailed reporting on the Hrabovske (Sumy) breach indicates the defending group exhibited "absolute irresponsibility," exacerbated by a total lack of command oversight and inspections.
(15:36, Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched KAB (guided bomb) strikes targeting the Zaporizhzhia region.
(16:02, Air Force, HIGH): New inbound UAVs (Shahed-type) detected on a vector toward Chornomorske, indicating an expansion of the southern air threat.
(15:42, Shmyhal/Operativno ZSU, HIGH):Portugal has committed €50 million for immediate weaponry procurement via the PURL mechanism.
(15:43, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Plans confirmed for the late-January 2026 opening of Europe’s second-largest logistics hub for Ukraine, located in Romania.
(15:52, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Mandatory hourly power outages and industrial consumption limits will be reimposed across most Ukrainian regions on Dec 22.
(16:01, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF forces are utilizing specialized UAVs for aerial demining in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
The failure at Hrabovske is now confirmed as a systemic leadership failure at the tactical level. DeepState reports suggest no checks or controls were performed on the unit holding the position (15:43). In the Kharkiv sector, adversary analysis (Strelkov) identifies Kupiansk as the "center" of the front, claiming RF success there is more strategic than in Pokrovsk, as it maintains a bridgehead against the Russian heartland (15:43).
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
High-intensity pressure continues. Internal Russian discourse (Strelkov) suggests a "territory for time" trade is occurring, but the RF remains focused on breaking the "Russian steamroller" through localized counter-attacks (15:43).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
A significant uptick in kinetic activity. KAB strikes are impacting Zaporizhzhia (15:36), while RF engineering units are reportedly using drones to clear minefields, likely preparing for mechanized advances or hardening defensive lines (16:01). New UAV threats are moving toward Chornomorske (16:02).
Rear / Infrastructure:
The energy situation is degrading. Ukrenergo has announced broad rationing for Dec 22 (15:52). However, the long-term logistical outlook is bolstered by the Romanian hub announcement (15:43) and Portuguese funding (15:42).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Stand-off Strikes: The use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia and Shaheds toward Chornomorske suggests a multi-axis air operation designed to suppress AD and soften forward positions simultaneously.
Engineering Adaptation: Russian MoD's promotion of "aerial demining" (16:01) indicates a push toward faster corridor creation through minefields, a technical evolution to match UAF's drone-heavy defense.
Strategic Intent: Adversary commentary suggests the RF high command views the Kharkiv/Kupiansk axis as the "strategic center," implying they may prioritize reinforcements there over the Pokrovsk breakthrough if UAF pressure increases (Strelkov, 15:43).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Command & Control (C2): Umerov and General Gnatov remain in the US (Day 3) for high-level military-technical consultations (15:45).
Logistical Sustainment: The confirmation of the Romania hub (Jan 2026) and Portugal’s €50m funding provides a clear trajectory for sustained heavy equipment flow despite current energy constraints.
Internal Corrections: The public naming of "irresponsible" conduct at Hrabovske (15:43) indicates a move toward transparency to force accountability within the border defense units.
Information environment / disinformation
Demoralization Campaign: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying claims that most UAF desertions occur at training centers (16:04). This is a coordinated PSYOP to undermine mobilization and foreign training programs (UNCONFIRMED, LOW confidence).
Negotiation Framing: Continued Russian focus on "Trump's peace plan" as an "ultimatum to Russia" (Strelkov, 15:43) serves to prepare the Russian domestic audience for a protracted conflict by framing even ceasefire proposals as existential threats.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Shahed loitering over the southern coast. Regional power grids will begin preparations for Dec 22 rationing.
MDCOA: Russian forces attempt to capitalize on the "leadership vacuum" identified in the Sumy sector with a quick-reaction infiltration toward Myropillya before UAF can rotate in disciplined units.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Demining: Verify the scale and effectiveness of RF "aerial demining." Is this a localized pilot or a theater-wide rollout?
Kupiansk Vector: Monitor for RF troop movements from the Donetsk sector toward the Kharkiv/Kupiansk axis, supporting the "strategic center" assessment.
Chornomorske Target: Identify the specific target of the 16:02 UAV wave (port infrastructure vs. air defense radar).
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW:
The battlefield is currently defined by a "pulsing" air threat (KABs/Shaheds) and a widening C2 crisis on the Sumy border. Weather remains a factor for energy stability, leading to the Dec 22 rationing.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS:
The RF is increasingly reliant on technical adaptations (aerial demining, EW-heavy "Yezh" tanks) to bypass UAF's "drone blockade." They are prioritizing the Kharkiv sector as a strategic buffer.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES:
UAF is in a "resource bridging" phase—holding ground in the East while awaiting the 2026 logistics surge from Romania and US/EU financial aid.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS:
Expect a high-volume missile/UAV strike within 24-48 hours to coincide with the start of energy rationing, maximizing psychological impact on the civilian population.
