(18:48, Nikolaevskiy Vanyek, HIGH): The initial wave of 20 Geran-2 (Shahed) UAVs targeting Odesa has been largely neutralized; only 3 units remain active on previous vectors toward Pivdenne/Chornomorske.
(18:53, Air Force UA, HIGH): A new wave of UAVs has been detected entering northern Sumy region, currently tracking on a southern course.
(18:40/18:46, TASS/Operativnyy ZSU, HIGH): Russian negotiator Dmitriev has arrived at a Miami golf club for meetings with Witkoff and Kushner, confirming the start of the "Miami Channel" talks.
(18:40/18:57, Tsaplienko/Operativnyy ZSU, HIGH): Successful Ukrainian strike on an electrical substation in Kamyshi, Kursk region (RF); visual evidence confirms fire and local power outages.
(18:56, Butusov/18th Slavic Bde, MEDIUM): Ukrainian "Donbas" Battalion liquidated a 20-man Russian infantry group in Chasiv Yar, demonstrating effective urban/perimeter defense despite weather.
(18:46, RVvoenkor, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian military bloggers claim new missile strikes on "key bridges" in the Odesa region. (Analytical note: This may be a disinformation attempt or a follow-up to the previously known Mayaki Bridge strike).
(18:50, Sternenko, HIGH): Tactical innovation confirmed: Operators of the 11th Brigade (National Guard of Ukraine) successfully intercepted a Shahed UAV using a Ukrainian FPV interceptor drone.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly divided between a high-intensity UAV/missile campaign in the South and precision Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in the rear. While the primary UAV wave against Odesa has subsided, a secondary threat is emerging from the North (Sumy). Diplomatically, the transition of the Kremlin-linked negotiator to a secure site in Miami indicates the formal commencement of high-level back-channel discussions.
Battlefield Geometry & Terrain:
Kursk Sector: Ukrainian deep strikes have successfully targeted the energy grid in the Kamyshi area, likely aiming to disrupt Russian rail logistics or heating for staging areas.
Chasiv Yar: Contested urban environment remains lethal for Russian dismounted infantry; the liquidation of a 20-man group (18:56) suggests UAF retains fire control over key approach routes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Maneuver & Strike Trends:
UAV Continuity: The launch of a fresh wave over Sumy (18:53) immediately following the Odesa wave suggests a "staggered saturation" tactic designed to keep UAF Air Defense (AD) in a constant state of transition between sectors.
Odesa Bridge Fixation: Russian focus on Odesa’s bridges (18:46) persists. If the unconfirmed claims of new strikes are true, the RF is attempting to permanently isolate the Bessarabia logistics hub before Western diplomatic pressure can force a "freeze."
Force Dispositions:
Kherson (Dnepr Group): Recognition of the BARS-33 volunteer unit (18:39) confirms that RF continues to rely on volunteer "Storm" formations to maintain presence in the Kherson marshes, likely to preserve regular VDV units for other axes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Tactical Successes:
Counter-UAS Innovation: The 11th Brigade’s use of FPV drones to down Shaheds (18:50) is a critical development. This provides a low-cost, unjammable kinetic alternative to expensive AD missiles and EW, especially relevant given the "machine vision" threat noted in the daily report.
Chasiv Yar Defense: The 18th Slavic Brigade’s engagement (18:56) confirms that elite National Guard units are effectively holding the line in the Donbas against "storm" tactics.
Operational Requirements:
AD Redistribution: With new UAV threats in Sumy, UAF must balance AD assets between the maritime grain corridor (Odesa) and northern energy infrastructure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian/Pro-Russian Narratives:
Diplomatic Shaping: TASS (18:39) is amplifying Western media (The National Interest) to argue that the Russian defense industry is resilient, likely to strengthen their hand in the Miami negotiations.
European Instability: Promotion of French farmer protests and "hanging of Macron" effigies (19:03) aims to project a narrative of Western internal collapse.
Orbán’s Attacks: Hungarian PM Orbán’s inflammatory rhetoric comparing EU leadership to historical dictators (18:50) serves as a primary friction point within the EU, likely coordinated to weaken a unified European stance during the Miami talks.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The new UAV wave from Sumy will transit toward central Ukraine or Kyiv within the next 2-4 hours. RF will continue to claim bridge strikes in Odesa to discourage logistics contractors from using the Southern route.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Dmitriev in Miami" news cycle to launch a "demonstration strike" (potentially hypersonic) against a high-value target in Kyiv or Odesa to project "strength through escalation" during the first session of talks.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
(BDA - PRIORITY): Confirm the status of Odesa bridges following Russian claims at 18:46. Is the M-15 route further degraded?
(TECHNICAL): Obtain telemetry or wreckage from the 11th Bde drone-on-drone kill to determine if the Shahed was using the new "optical target designation" reported in the daily brief.
(LOGISTICS): Assess the impact of the Kamyshi (Kursk) substation fire on Russian rail movement toward the Kharkiv/Sumy border.
