(15:32, Rybar, HIGH): Russian "Sever" (Northern) Group has initiated offensive operations in the Sloboda direction, specifically targeting the border corridor between Belgorod (RF) and Sumy Oblast (UA).
(15:10, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Russian VKS launched a wave of KAB (guided aerial bombs) from eastern Zaporizhzhia targeting southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
(15:16, RBK-Ukraine/National Police, HIGH): Ukrainian National Police confirm a Russian flag was visually documented over Kyiv via a Russian-operated drone; characterized as a high-visibility psychological operation.
(15:13, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF drone units successfully interdicted and destroyed a Russian armored column in the Dobropillia direction (Pokrovsk sector); video evidence confirms catastrophic losses for RF.
(15:20, RBK-Ukraine/Ukrenergo, MEDIUM): National grid operator "Ukrenergo" announced nationwide rolling blackouts for December 21 following sustained strikes on energy infrastructure.
(15:31, WarGonzo, LOW): Claims of the destruction of an "elite" UAF drone unit in the Zaporizhzhia sector (UNCONFIRMED/Potential retaliatory propaganda).
(15:32, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Iran is accelerating ballistic missile production, with Israel briefing the incoming US administration on potential counter-strikes.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational theater has expanded with a significant activation of the Northern Border (Slobozhansky Axis). Russian "Sever" forces are attempting to exploit the border area between Belgorod and Sumy, likely to force a diversion of UAF reserves from the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts. Simultaneously, the kinetic pressure on Dnipropetrovsk via KAB strikes indicates an intent to disrupt the deeper rear of the Southern Defense Forces.
Weather/Environmental Factors:
Visibility: Ground conditions remain dominated by "Rasputitsa" (mud), as evidenced by the RF column's vulnerability in Dobropillia. However, the predicted fog (Dec 21) is likely the driver for the current high-tempo KAB and Geran-2 strikes as RF attempts to maximize visual guidance before degradation.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Maneuver & Adaptations:
Northern Axis Expansion: The move by the "Sever" group (15:32) suggests the opening of a new operational vector. This is likely a "spoiling attack" to prevent UAF from consolidating defensive lines in the south.
VKS Integration: Frequent KAB launches toward Dnipropetrovsk (15:10) and Su-34 activity (Fighterbomber, 15:27) indicate the Russian Air Force is prioritizing long-range standoff strikes to bypass the Odesa-Mykolaiv AD pockets.
Vostok Group Operations: The 38th Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Army) is confirmed active in Zaporizhzhia, utilizing drone units to hunt UAF personnel and light vehicles (15:35).
Logistics & Sustainment:
Energy War: The announcement of scheduled blackouts (15:20) confirms that recent strikes on Odesa (Mayaki/Artsyz) and other nodes have reached a tipping point for grid stability.
Economic Warfare: RF strikes are now having a measurable impact on the Ukrainian domestic fuel market, with reports of impending gasoline price hikes (15:11).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Tactical Successes:
Dobropillia Interdiction: UAF drone units demonstrated high operational readiness by neutralizing an entire Russian column in the Pokrovsk sector (15:13). This confirms that despite RF "machine vision" claims, UAF FPV and reconnaissance drones maintain local air superiority over the immediate tactical zone.
Strategic Hardening: Continuous defensive lines in Zaporizhzhia (15:22) are being publicized to signal resilience against the 35th Army’s probes.
Resource Constraints:
Air Defense Overload: The requirement to defend the capital from psychological drone stunts (the flag incident) while simultaneously intercepting KABs in the south and Gerans in the west is stretching AD assets thin.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Hybrid Operations:
Kyiv Flag Stunt: The use of a drone to fly a Russian flag over Kyiv (15:16) is a classic "perception management" operation designed to demoralize the civilian population and project UAF AD incompetence.
Budanov Narrative Amplification: Pro-Russian channels (Operatsiya Z, 15:31) continue to recycle claims of failed Ukrainian mobilization to synchronize with domestic economic anxiety (fuel prices/blackouts).
International Context:
Sanctions & Boycotts: The removal of Russian wines from US competitions (15:25) continues to be used by Russian state media (TASS) to reinforce a "besieged fortress" mentality domestically.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity KAB and drone strikes through 00:00 UTC to facilitate the "Sever" group's initial infiltration in the Sumy border region. Expect increased shelling of Sumy city and surrounding infrastructure.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized ballistic missile strike (utilizing potential new Iranian shipments) targeting the Dnipro river crossings to isolate the Eastern Group of Forces while the Northern "Sever" group attempts a deeper breakthrough toward Kharkiv or Sumy.
Timeline Estimate: Critical window for Northern border activity is the next 6-12 hours as "Sever" elements test UAF border screens.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
(OPERATIONAL): Identify the specific unit composition and size of the "Sever" group attacking the Sloboda direction. Is this a battalion-sized tactical group or a larger regimental push?
(TECHNICAL): Analyze the drone used in the Kyiv flag incident. Did it utilize the previously reported optical seekers to bypass urban EW?
(LOGISTICS): Assess the damage to the Dnipropetrovsk southern districts following the 15:10 KAB strikes. Identify if industrial or power distribution assets were hit.
(SIGINT): Monitor for Iranian-origin transport aircraft arrivals at RF airbases to confirm NBC/RBC reports on missile production/transfers.
