(12:04, Nikolaevsky Vanek, HIGH): Approximately 15 "Shahed" UAVs launched from Tendrivska Kosa, transiting toward Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa region).
(11:59, RBK-Ukraine/Vitaliy Kim, HIGH): RF forces conducted KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes on the Bashtanka district of Mykolaiv Oblast.
(11:51, ASTRA, HIGH): Indian Ministry of External Affairs officially confirmed the recruitment of >200 Indian citizens by Russia for combat operations in Ukraine.
(11:59, Dva Mayora, HIGH): Massive rocket strikes documented against Kherson; visual evidence confirms high-intensity kinetic activity.
(11:49, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED): Reports indicate Andriy Yermak has resigned as Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine (OPU), though reportedly retaining informal influence and nightly access to the President.
(12:01, AFU DSHV, HIGH): Pilots of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade (Tavria) are successfully operating strike drones at ranges up to 21km on the Pokrovsk axis, expanding the tactical "killzone."
(11:43, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Kinetic strike confirmed in the Polohivskyi district, continuing the pressure on the Zaporizhzhia frontline.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Kherson):
The RF "Logistical Strangulation" campaign has escalated. The launch of ~15 UAVs from the Tendrivska Kosa (12:04) suggests a multi-axis swarm intended to bypass air defenses focused on the M-15 corridor. Combined with KAB strikes in Bashtanka (11:59) and rocket strikes on Kherson (11:59), the RF is systematically targeting the entire Southern logistical rear to prevent UAF from repositioning reserves to Odesa.
2. Pokrovsk / Donetsk Axis:
Despite RF pressure, the UAF 79th Air Assault Brigade is demonstrating increased technical proficiency, utilizing long-range (21km) FPV/strike drones to disrupt RF assembly areas (12:01). This deep tactical reach is critical for mitigating RF's "dronovody" (drone screen) mentioned in the 11:35 UTC report.
3. Zaporizhzhia / Nikopol Sector:
Intermittent strikes continue in Polohivskyi (11:43), while UAV reconnaissance is pushing south of Nikopol (11:59). This suggests RF is maintaining a "fix-and-hold" strategy here to prevent UAF from reinforcing the Donbas or Odesa.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Manpower Hybridization: The official confirmation of Indian nationals (11:51) fighting for the RF highlights a shift toward "mercenary hybridization" to compensate for domestic mobilization friction. This complicates the international diplomatic environment for Kyiv's partners in the Global South.
Extended Night Operations: Russian media is highlighting that Dec 21 is the longest night of the year (>17 hours) (11:38). Combined with the arrival of thermal-guided Shaheds (ref: 11:35 report), we assess a High Probability of a sustained, 12-18 hour saturation strike starting tonight to exploit the extended darkness and UAF visual detection limitations.
Logistical Interdiction: Use of KABs in Mykolaiv indicates RF is moving its high-payload assets further west to strike deeper logistical nodes that were previously only targeted by missiles or drones.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Tactical Strike: UAF drone units are successfully extending their operational radius (21km), which allows for the targeting of RF second-echelon logistics and command posts without exposing launch teams to immediate mortar or tube artillery fire.
Political Transition (High Risk): If the reports regarding Yermak's resignation (11:49) are accurate, the UAF General Staff may face a period of administrative volatility during a critical defensive phase. This remains UNCONFIRMED and requires urgent verification.
Information environment / disinformation
Recruitment Narrative: RF channels are amplifying videos of alleged recruitment "incidents" in Kharkiv (11:53) to foster internal civil-military friction and fuel the narrative of "forced mobilization."
Chechen Stabilization: Kadyrov’s focus on mosque openings (12:01) serves as a domestic "stability" signal, contrasting the high-intensity combat reports and suggesting the "Akhmat" units may be in a period of rotation or reorganization.
Counter-Isolation: Maria Zakharova’s rhetoric (12:01) regarding "trickles" of people arriving in Russia is a direct IO response to Western diplomatic pressure preceding the Miami talks.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): A massive, multi-wave UAV and missile assault on Odesa and Mykolaiv, beginning at dusk (approx. 15:30Z), leveraging thermal-equipped "Shaheds" to exploit the longest night of the year.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported administrative "vacuum" in Kyiv (Yermak resignation rumors) to launch a coordinated mechanized push toward the H-07 highway in the Sumy sector while UAF leadership is distracted by political shifts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Status of Andriy Yermak. Confirm through official OPU channels or GUR if this is a genuine resignation or a coordinated RF disinformation "leak" to destabilize the Ukrainian command structure before the Miami summit.
(TECHNICAL): Monitor the frequency and telemetry of the UAVs launched from Tendrivska Kosa (12:04). Determine if these represent the new "thermal" variants or standard loitering munitions.
(TACTICAL): Assess the damage to the Kherson infrastructure following the "massive rocket strike" (11:59). Identify if the targets were military cantonments or civilian energy nodes.
