(23:39, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Loitering munitions (Shahed-type) have transitioned from a western transit to a southern vector, passing Korosten and heading toward the Zhytomyr regional center.
(23:51, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Primary UAV threat now confirmed approaching Zhytomyr city from the north.
(00:03, Colonelcassad, LOW - UNCONFIRMED): RF sources claim GrV Tsentr (Group Center) has crossed the administrative border into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and is actively storming Dimitrov (Myrnohrad).
(23:38, RusVesna, MEDIUM): Coordinated RF information operation (IO) promoting "digital sovereignty," likely signaling a shift in domestic network controls or masking new electronic warfare/C2 capabilities.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Western Sector (Zhytomyr):
The UAV threat has evolved from a bypass maneuver toward Western Ukraine into a direct approach on Zhytomyr city. The flight path (moving south from Korosten) suggests targets may include the 95th Air Assault Brigade home station or key energy/substation nodes serving the western rail lines.
CRITICAL ALERT (UNCONFIRMED): If claims of RF entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are verified, this indicates a breach of the primary defensive lines west of Myrnohrad (Dimitrov).
The focus on Myrnohrad (cited as Dimitrov by RF sources) suggests the enemy is attempting to collapse the northern anchor of the Pokrovsk defense to achieve a breakthrough toward the Pavlohrad logistics hub. This aligns with the "pincer" strategy identified in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Baseline Context: The M-15 GLOC remains severed at the Mayaki Bridge.
Current Status: While no new kinetic updates have emerged since 23:35Z, the "ballistic threat" from the South (Crimea) remains active. The previously reported UAV movement toward Enerhodar likely serves as a reconnaissance screen for the expected GrV Vostok ground assault on the Huliaipole/Gaychur axis.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RF is synchronizing a strategic UAV bombardment in the North (Zhytomyr) with a high-intensity ground push in the East (Dnipropetrovsk border). By pressuring the administrative boundaries of Dnipropetrovsk, the RF seeks to force the UAF General Staff to divert reserves away from the Southern (Zaporizhzhia) front just as the "Herasymivka" breakout window opens.
Information Operations: The "Digital Sovereignty" narrative (23:38Z) may be an indicator of upcoming state-level internet "kill-switch" testing or a response to the "fiber-optic" drone deployment mentioned in previous reports, intended to insulate RF C2 from Western cyber-interference during the current offensive.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are repositioning to intercept the Zhytomyr-bound UAVs.
Defensive Maneuver: UAF units in the Myrnohrad sector are likely engaged in heavy urban/suburban combat. The 7th Corps (previously identified) is the primary unit of record for this defense.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Framing: RF sources (Colonelcassad) are using the Soviet-era name "Dimitrov" for Myrnohrad to signal "liberation" and appeal to domestic nostalgia, while simultaneously claiming a breach into Dnipropetrovsk to generate panic in the Ukrainian rear.
Strategic Distraction: Continued emphasis on external geopolitical shifts (Trump's comments on Syria) is being used by Ukrainian aggregators (RBC) to maintain public morale, but risks diluting the urgency of the local tactical situation in Dnipropetrovsk.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-pressure assaults on Myrnohrad while utilizing the Zhytomyr UAV wave to suppress regional AD. An armored push in the Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole) sector is expected before dawn (0400Z).
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A confirmed breakthrough into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast results in the severing of the rail connection between Dnipro and Pokrovsk, combined with a secondary ballistic strike on the Palanca bypass road, achieving a near-total logistics isolation of the Southern front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(VERIFICATION): Immediate IMINT/Geolocated footage required to confirm if RF forces have physically crossed the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk administrative border near Myrnohrad.
(SIGINT): Monitor for increased C2 traffic between GrV Tsentr and GrV Vostok to confirm synchronization of the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia offensives.
(TECHNICAL): Assess if "Digital Sovereignty" messaging correlates with the deployment of the new "Kuriyer" UGVs or specialized radio-relay systems.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The operational tempo has shifted toward territorial expansion into the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The enemy is no longer satisfied with attrition in the Donbas; they are seeking to penetrate the administrative heart of the Ukrainian logistics network. The UAV activity in Zhytomyr is likely a secondary effort to fix Northern reserves. The main effort is the emerging pincer between the Myrnohrad (East) and Huliaipole (South) axes.
