(21:10, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Ukrainian Government (PM Svyrydenko) confirms emergency operations to "liquidate consequences" of strikes on the main Odesa-Izmail bridge (M-15).
(21:16, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Regional power outages confirmed in Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv district, and Voznesensk following RF strikes on energy infrastructure.
(21:10, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF claims destruction of a 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade (UAF) deployment point in Orikhiv using multiple FAB-500 bombs. (UNCONFIRMED)
(21:13, TASS, HIGH): Putin officially congratulates security services on "Chekist Day" (Dec 20), reinforcing the threat of symbolic kinetic operations in the next 12 hours.
(21:20, Nikolaevsky Vanyek, MEDIUM): Threat levels in Mykolaiv city decreased; however, active threat persists for coastal settlements near Ochakiv.
(21:34, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed deployment of fiber-optic guided drones by the 63rd OMBr in the Lyman sector, indicating UAF adaptation to RF electronic warfare.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Kherson):
Odesa/Bessarabia: The M-15 (Mayaki) bridge remains the focal point of the regional logistics crisis. The Ukrainian government is treating its repair/bypass as a top-tier emergency (21:10). This confirms the bridge is currently non-functional for heavy logistics, validating the "isolation" assessment.
Mykolaiv/Voznesensk: Power outages have expanded beyond the city of Mykolaiv to include Voznesensk (21:16), suggesting the RF is targeting the energy distribution nodes that support lateral rail movement between the Southern and Central fronts.
Ochakiv/Coastal: Threat vectors have shifted from Mykolaiv city to coastal fringes (21:20). This may indicate RF preparation for littoral harassment or drone launches from the Kinburn Spit.
2. Zaporizhzhia Sector (Orikhiv Axis):
Orikhiv: RF forces are utilizing heavy glide bombs (FAB-500) to strike UAF rear assembly areas (21:10). This aligns with the "Herasymivka" armored breakout warning from the daily report, suggesting the RF is conducting "shaping fires" to degrade UAF reserves (65th OMBr) before a ground push.
3. Eastern Sector (Lyman/Donbas):
Lyman: High-intensity combat continues with a notable technological shift. The 63rd OMBr is utilizing fiber-optic drones (21:34), which are immune to traditional RF EW. The proliferation of fiber-optic cables on the battlefield is becoming a primary indicator of combat intensity in this sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: The expansion of strikes to Voznesensk (21:16) indicates a systematic attempt to collapse the energy grid not just for civilian terror, but to freeze UAF electric-powered rail logistics.
Munitions Profile: The use of FAB-500s in Orikhiv (21:10) marks a transition from loitering munitions to heavy ordinance in the Zaporizhzhia sector, often a precursor to localized offensive maneuver.
Symbolic Timing: Putin’s early "Chekist Day" address (21:13) serves as a morale booster for RF security services and likely signals that "high-value" or "prestige" strikes are planned for the early hours of Dec 20.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Infrastructure Recovery: Strategic focus is on the M-15 bridge (21:10). Engineering units are likely assessing if a temporary span or bypass can be established to restore the connection to Romania.
Technological Superiority (Lyman): UAF is successfully integrating fiber-optic FPV technology to maintain strike capabilities despite heavy RF jamming (21:34).
Zaporizhzhia: Air raid alerts have been cleared (21:21), suggesting a temporary pause in the glide bomb campaign, allowing for casualty evacuation and damage assessment in Orikhiv.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Operation Z, 21:07) are attempting to mock UAF leadership, using the "Many Putins" quote to distract from the strategic implications of the Miami talks.
Internal Stability: RF channels (NGP Razvedka, 21:26) are increasingly focused on internal feedback and minor logistical issues (car sales/notices), possibly indicating a shift in attention toward rear-area security during the Dec 20 celebrations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will launch a concentrated missile and drone wave between 0200Z and 0600Z on Dec 20 to commemorate "Chekist Day." Targets will likely include GUR/SBU headquarters and energy nodes in the Voznesensk-Mykolaiv corridor.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF exploits the isolation of the Odesa region (M-15 closure) and the degradation of the 65th OMBr in Orikhiv to launch a multi-brigade armored push toward the Gaychur River line, attempting to achieve a breakthrough before the Miami summit begins.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(OPERATIONAL) Assess the specific damage to the M-15 bridge; determine if the "liquidation" efforts by the government involve a pontoon bypass or structural repair.
(TECHNICAL) Monitor for any deployment of "Oreshnik" or other intermediate-range systems during the Dec 20 symbolic strike window.
(BATTLE DAMAGE) Confirm the status of the 65th OMBr in Orikhiv following the reported FAB-500 strikes.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The RF is aggressively pursuing a "Logistics Interdiction" strategy. By simultaneously severing the M-15 bridge (Odesa), striking the Mykolaiv/Voznesensk power grid, and targeting UAF reserves in Orikhiv with heavy FABs, the RF is attempting to freeze the Southern front. The symbolic "Chekist Day" provides a psychological catalyst for a potential escalation in the next 12 hours, aimed at undermining the Ukrainian position ahead of international negotiations.
