Situation Update (2025-12-19 20:45 UTC)
Key updates since last sitrep
- (20:11, Artamonov, HIGH): "Red Level" air danger declared for Lipetsk and surrounding districts (Gryazinsky, Dobrinsky, etc.) due to incoming Ukrainian UAVs.
- (20:13, TASS, HIGH): RF MoD claims 36 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted over Russian territory within a three-hour window, confirming a sustained deep-strike wave.
- (20:17–20:33, Nikolaevsky Vanyek/Air Force, HIGH): Multiple waves of Shahed-type UAVs ("mopeds") entering Mykolaiv airspace from the south, specifically targeting the YTZ area. Residents ordered to shelters.
- (20:16, Air Force, HIGH): Launch of KAB (Guided Aerial Bombs) targeting the Dnipropetrovsk region.
- (20:22, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): RF 103rd Motor Rifle Regiment reportedly conducting offensive operations toward Kostiantynivka (Donetsk sector).
- (20:23, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Footage released showing UAF air defense activity over Odesa port; Russian sources attempting to use this for geolocating AD positions.
- (20:26, Hayabusa, MEDIUM): Emerging reports of potential fuel shortages and price spikes in Ukraine, likely linked to the M-15 logistics disruption.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv):
The sector is currently under an active multi-vector air assault. Mykolaiv is facing sequential waves of loitering munitions (at least 4-6 units tracked) on a course toward industrial zones (YTZ) (20:17, 20:33). In Odesa, air defense systems are actively engaged over the port (20:23), suggesting the RF is attempting to capitalize on the M-15 bridge closure by striking the remaining maritime and port-side logistics infrastructure.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Dnipropetrovsk):
- Kostiantynivka: Offensive pressure is increasing with the RF 103rd Regiment moving on the town (20:22). This supports the assessment of an RF push to widen the salient before diplomatic talks.
- Siversk: Recent imagery confirms the city has sustained catastrophic structural damage (20:21), though the frontline remains largely static.
- Dnipropetrovsk: Tactical aviation is active, with KAB strikes reported (20:16) and UAVs moving northwest via Pokrovske (20:32).
3. Russian Rear (Lipetsk/Regional):
UAF long-range operations have achieved a high tempo, with 36 UAVs reaching RF airspace (20:13). The "Red Level" alert in Lipetsk (20:11) indicates UAF is targeting critical infrastructure or airfields in the RF interior to disrupt the replenishment of KAB-capable aircraft.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Course of Action: The RF is maintaining a "strike-maneuver" synchronization. Drones are being used to fix Southern UAF forces and air defenses, while KABs and ground units (103rd Reg) push in the East.
- Tactical Adaptation: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad) are utilizing "citizen journalism" (Turkish-sourced video) to geolocate Ukrainian AD points in Odesa, indicating a persistent SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) intent.
- Logistics Status: RF milbloggers ("Two Majors") have signaled a shift in communication protocols (20:18), which often precedes a change in operational security (OPSEC) for a major tactical move or a response to internal purges.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Deep Strike Maneuver: UAF has launched a significant UAV wave (36+ units) aimed at the RF rear (20:13). This appears to be a coordinated effort to relieve pressure on the Southern/Eastern fronts by forcing RF to relocate AD assets.
- Force Generation: UAF units trained by Norwegian instructors are confirmed to be deploying to the front as of Dec 20 (20:28), providing a fresh injection of trained personnel for the "Herasymivka" defense or the Pokrovsk sector.
- Strategic Funding: President Zelenskyy noted that the recent EU credit provides "additional trumps" (20:21), likely referring to the ability to pay for emergency logistics workarounds (Palanca bypass) and fuel imports.
Information environment / disinformation
- Economic Alarmism: Reports of fuel "deficits and price hikes" (20:26) are beginning to circulate. This is a critical vulnerability that Russian IO will likely exploit to amplify the impact of the M-15 bridge destruction.
- Strategic Narratives: Russian sources are framing the US/Rubio comments on Venezuela as a sign of US focus shifting away from Eastern Europe (20:23), while Ukrainian sources are emphasizing US intelligence reports that Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine (20:33) to maintain Western urgency.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued Shahed and KAB strikes throughout the night to exhaust UAF AD and degrade fuel depots in the Mykolaiv/Odesa region. RF 103rd Reg will attempt a night assault on the outskirts of Kostiantynivka.
- Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A coordinated missile strike targeting the Kyiv city center during the "foreign delegation" visit (Dec 20), aimed at paralyzing the Miami summit's momentum and demonstrating the "Oreshnik" threat.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- (OPERATIONAL) Assess the current fuel reserve levels in Odesa and Mykolaiv. If the "deficit" (20:26) is real, UAF mobility will be severely compromised within 48 hours.
- (TACTICAL) Verify the specific targets of the 36 UAVs in Lipetsk. Destruction of fuel or ammo depots there would directly impact the RF's ability to sustain the Kostiantynivka offensive.
- (TECHNICAL) Confirm if the drones over Mykolaiv (20:33) are utilizing new guidance (fiber-optic or satellite) to bypass local EW, given the "loud" results reported.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The conflict has entered a high-frequency "shaping" phase prior to the Miami summit. Russia is attempting to create a domestic crisis in Ukraine (fuel, energy, logistics) while simultaneously pressing on the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk axis. Ukraine’s response—a 36-UAV deep strike—is a clear attempt to disrupt RF's internal stability and offensive sustainment. The arrival of Norwegian-trained troops tomorrow (20:28) is a critical timing element for the defense of the East.
//END OF REPORT//
