(05:11, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Low-altitude flight of "Geran" (Shahed) UAV confirmed over Artsyz (Odesa region), indicating continued pressure on the Odesa corridor.
Operational picture (by sector)
South (Zaporizhzhia/Polohy): Kinetic activity has intensified in the Polohy district (05:10Z), corroborating earlier reports of RF attempting to widen the Gaichur River bridgehead. The strike on Zaporizhzhia City indicates continued rear-area harassment to fix UAF reserves.
South (Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih): RF has expanded its drone-led interdiction to the Synelnykivskyi district (05:30Z), likely aiming to disrupt logistics connecting Dnipro to the Vremivka/Huliaipole sectors. Situation in Kryvyi Rih remains stable but under high alert (05:33Z).
Odesa/Southern Corridor: The sighting of a drone over Artsyz (05:11Z) suggests RF is maintaining surveillance or strike pressure on the logistics hubs previously reported as "down" for maintenance.
Strategic Rear (RF): Ukraine has executed a high-volume UAV campaign (94 units claimed by RF MoD) targeting energy infrastructure. The successful hits on Oryol and Rostov TPPs (05:26Z) represent a significant escalation in "energy-for-energy" asymmetric strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/UAV: RF is maintaining a high tempo of "Geran" launches against Southern Ukraine. The focus has shifted toward the Synelnykivskyi district, suggesting a move to isolate the Southern front from Dnipro-based reinforcements.
Ground Maneuver: While no new ground maneuver was reported in the last 30 minutes, the artillery/drone strikes in Polohy support the "clearing" operations previously noted on the Gaichur River's right bank.
Internal Security: The Russian State Duma is tightening controls on citizens abroad (05:24Z), likely a response to domestic instability or part of a broader mobilization/resource-preservation strategy.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF has demonstrated the ability to launch massive, coordinated UAV swarms (94+ units) to penetrate RF air defenses and hit critical infrastructure (Oryol/Rostov TPPs). This suggests a surge in domestic production or the depletion of specific RF AD intercepts.
Strategic Finance: The €90B EU loan agreement (05:10Z) provides critical long-term fiscal stability, ensuring the "multi-year pipeline" for munitions remains viable despite RF narrative attempts to frame it as a failure to seize assets.
Information environment / disinformation
Asset Seizure Pivot: Russian mil-bloggers (RVvoenkor, 05:23Z) are actively framing the EU's decision to provide a loan instead of seizing assets as a "victory for Russia" and a "refusal to steal." This is a clear attempt to mask the strategic impact of a €90B guaranteed funding line.
Domestic Normalization: Moscow-centric media continues to report on mundane administrative details (last working day of the year, 05:14Z) to suppress public anxiety regarding the large-scale UAV strikes on Russian soil.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely respond to the TPP strikes with a retaliatory wave of cruise missiles or increased KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Sumy.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the chaos of the partial blackouts in Rostov (a key logistics hub for the Southern Group of Forces) to mask the final repositioning of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade for the projected breakout toward the Dnipropetrovsk border.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
P1 (CRITICAL): Assess the damage scale at Rostov TPP. Does the "partial blackout" affect the rail-loading terminals or C2 centers used for the Southern offensive?
P2 (URGENT): Identify the origin points of the 94 UAVs. Is this a new launch capability or a one-off surge?
P3 (PRIORITY): Confirm if the strikes in Synelnykivskyi district have impacted the primary MSR (Main Supply Route) for UAF units in the Huliaipole sector.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Summary
Factor
Assessment
Battlefield Geometry
Expansion of RF strikes into Synelnykivskyi indicates an attempt to isolate the Southern bridgeheads.
Enemy Capabilities
Sustained drone pressure on Odesa/Dnipropetrovsk; transition to retaliatory posture following TPP strikes.
Sustainment
EU €90B package (HIGH confidence) secures UAF's long-term defense posture; RF energy infrastructure now under critical threat.
Information Domain
RF "legal victory" narrative (LOW confidence) is a reflexive control mechanism to downplay the EU funding's impact.
