(00:36:42, UAF Air Force, HIGH): OWA-UAV from Poltava Oblast has entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast airspace, vectoring toward Samar.
(00:38:13, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New OWA-UAV wave from the Black Sea is targeting the Karolino-Bugaz/Zatoka area (Odesa Oblast), indicating a focus on coastal infrastructure/choke points.
(00:39:36, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAV detected approaching or bypassing Kherson from the East.
(00:50:56, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New aerial threat (UAV) detected moving toward Sumy from the North.
(01:04:36, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Dissemination of visual propaganda alleging Ukrainian mistreatment of Russian POWs. (PSYOP/IO)
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeast (Sumy/Kharkiv): The detection of a UAV moving toward Sumy from the North (00:50:56Z) confirms the expansion of the "aerial fixation" campaign noted in the Daily Report. This maneuver keeps local air defense (AD) engaged and prevents the redistribution of assets to the more active Southern and Eastern fronts.
East (Donetsk/Luhansk): No new kinetic updates in the last 30 minutes, but the 00:14Z KAB launches (previous report) suggest preparatory fires for anticipated morning ground assaults. The "street fighting" claims in Krasny Lyman remain UNCONFIRMED.
Central-South (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): The UAV vector toward Samar (00:36:42Z) is significant. Samar serves as a potential logistics hub supporting the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis. This suggests an intent to interdict the movement of UAF reserves toward the Herasymivka bridgehead.
South (Odesa/Kherson): RF is expanding the Odesa strike zone beyond the city center to Karolino-Bugaz/Zatoka (00:38:13Z). This targets critical bridge and rail infrastructure linking Odesa to the southern region. In Kherson, eastern-origin UAVs (00:39:36Z) are likely conducting tactical reconnaissance of UAF artillery positions or river-crossing equipment.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile: The multi-axis UAV saturation (Sumy, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson) is currently the primary RF effort. This "swarm-and-fix" tactic aims to deplete AD magazines and mask higher-value missile strikes.
Ground Maneuver: The threat of an armored breakout at Herasymivka (Daily Report) remains CRITICAL. The diversionary UAV strikes in the rear (Samar) align with the timing for a pre-dawn armored thrust.
Sustainment: The 260th GRAU Arsenal depletion (Daily Report) suggests RF units are now "combat loaded" for high-intensity operations in the next 0-12 hours.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively engaged across four Oblasts. The rapid detection of the Sumy-bound UAV indicates the Northern early warning network is operational.
Strategic Logistics: The US defense budget signing (previous sitrep) provides long-term stability, but the immediate tactical focus remains on protecting localized logistics nodes like Samar and Zatoka from OWA-UAV impact.
Information environment / disinformation
POW Narrative: Russian channels (Colonelcassad, 01:04:36Z) are pushing content regarding POW treatment. This is assessed with HIGH confidence as a coordinated effort to counter the positive impact of the US aid signing and to harden RF domestic resolve ahead of an escalation.
Strategic Deterrence: The "Oreshnik" narrative from Belarus continues to serve as a psychological "sword of Damocles" to induce caution in UAF C2.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify UAV strikes toward dawn (0400-0600Z) to exhaust AD crews. This will likely be the window for the Herasymivka armored breakout and potential localized ground assaults in the Kupyansk and Krasny Lyman sectors.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A high-speed ballistic or "Oreshnik" strike targeting Dnipro or Kyiv C2 hubs, synchronized with the peak of the Odesa power outage and the Southern armored breakthrough, aiming for total operational paralysis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
P1 (CRITICAL): Immediate ISR of the Herasymivka bridgehead. Confirm status of 5th Tank Brigade and 37th GMRB movements.
P2 (URGENT): Damage assessment of the Odesa grid. Is the outage preventing the operation of automated AD sensors in the Karolino-Bugaz area?
P3 (PRIORITY): Confirm the altitude and speed of the UAVs heading toward Samar to determine if they are standard Shahed-type or higher-capability platforms.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Summary
Factor
Assessment
Battlefield Geometry
RF is attempting to widen the "kinetic envelope" by striking the rear (Samar) and flanks (Sumy/Odesa).
Weather
Night conditions favor RF units equipped with thermal/night-vision (e.g., 5th Tank Bde).
Enemy Intent
To fix UAF reserves in the North/South while attempting a decisive armored breach in the Center-South.
C2 Status
UAF C2 remains resilient but under heavy cognitive pressure from multi-axis threats.
