Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 17:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (17:06Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): Deployment and combat use of "Molniya-2" (Lightning-2) strike drones confirmed in the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) sector, targeting UAF tactical rear areas.
• (17:32Z, UAF AF, HIGH): New wave of UAV (Shahed) incursions detected in Kharkiv Oblast, continuing the aerial fixation pattern across the Northern border.
• (17:24Z, Hayabusa, HIGH): Severe traffic congestion and road blockages reported on major arteries in Odesa at night. Assessed as a direct consequence of earlier strikes on the Zatoka and Mayaky bridges, causing civilian panic or a total collapse of logistics throughput.
• (17:12Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy arrived in Poland for urgent consultations with President Navrotsky, likely tied to emerging "security guarantee" frameworks.
• (17:09Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): UNCONFIRMED reports via Bloomberg indicate US and EU allies are drafting a formal security guarantee plan to support a potential peace agreement.
• (17:11Z, RF MoD, HIGH): Chief of General Staff Gerasimov conducted a briefing for international military attachés, emphasizing the "critical" situation for UAF in Donbas and the expansion of the Russian "nuclear triad" (17:06Z).
• (17:13Z, TASS, LOW): Belarusian President Lukashenko publicly characterized himself as an "outgoing" president; assessed as high-level political posturing or disinformation.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk / Toretsk)

The introduction of the Molniya-2 strike drone (17:06Z) near Krasnoarmiysk suggests RF is shifting from simple FPV-based attrition to more sophisticated, perhaps longer-range or more autonomous, loitering munitions to isolate Pokrovsk. This aligns with Gerasimov’s claim (17:06Z) that the Donbas front is reaching a "critical" point for UAF defenses.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Herasymivka)

No new ground maneuver data since 17:05Z. The 5th Separate Tank Brigade remains in its assembly area. However, RF MoD rhetoric regarding "combat training lessons" (17:16Z) suggests the force is finalized for the projected 1800Z-0600Z breakout window.

Southern Maritime / Odesa Axis

The interdiction campaign against the Zatoka and Mayaky bridges has transitioned into a civil stability crisis. Massive traffic jams in Odesa (17:24Z) indicate a failure in movement control or an uncoordinated civilian exodus. This bottleneck significantly degrades UAF’s ability to shift reserves or receive Danube-based supplies.

Northeast Axis (Kharkiv / Sumy)

Aerial pressure is mounting in Kharkiv (17:32Z) via new Shahed waves. This suggests a multi-axis air fixation effort intended to prevent the redeployment of Kharkiv-based air defense assets to protect the Odesa logistics hub or the Pokrovsk salient.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Tactical Innovation: Molniya-2 Integration (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is moving beyond standard FPV swarms to dedicated engineering and assembly of "Molniya-2" strike drones (17:06Z). These systems likely offer higher resistance to standard EW and better penetration against small infantry groups, as evidenced by RF internal discussions on new self-protection measures for foot soldiers (17:10Z).

2. Strategic Coercion & Nuclear Signaling (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The RF MoD is using the "Day of the Strategic Missile Forces" and Gerasimov's briefing to international attachés (17:11Z) to amplify nuclear triad capabilities (17:33Z). This is a coordinated psychological operation designed to deter Western intervention as the ground offensive in Donbas intensifies.

3. Potential Large-Scale Strike Scheme (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Propaganda channels (Colonelcassad, 17:22Z) are circulating "simulated" strike schemes for Dec 17-18. While likely IO, these often serve as a blueprint for planned missile/drone trajectories to overwhelm UAF AD through saturation.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Diplomatic Maneuver (HIGH CONFIDENCE): President Zelenskyy’s visit to Poland (17:12Z) is a critical attempt to shore up the "Western Flank" and finalize logistical contingencies as the Odesa GLOCs face physical interdiction.

2. Rear-Area Stabilization (URGENT REQUIREMENT): The traffic situation in Odesa (17:24Z) requires immediate intervention by Military Police and Territorial Defense to clear GLOCs for essential military movement.

Information environment / disinformation

• RF Narrative: Framing the UAF position in Donbas as "collapsed" to induce defeatism.
• Strategic IO: Using Lukashenko's "outgoing" comment (17:13Z) and security guarantee leaks (17:09Z) to create the illusion of an imminent political settlement, potentially slowing UAF mobilization efforts or Western aid deliveries.
• Internal RF Control: Legislative moves to track "political emigrants" (17:31Z) indicates the Kremlin is tightening internal security to prevent domestic interference during the winter offensive.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA: Multi-Axis Saturation and Southern Breakout. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF will likely launch the 5th Tank Bde's armored thrust (Herasymivka) in the next 4-8 hours, synchronized with the new Shahed wave in Kharkiv (17:32Z) and the logistics paralysis in Odesa. The use of "Molniya-2" drones will intensify around Pokrovsk to prevent UAF tactical repositioning.

MDCOA: Kinetic Demonstration of Strategic Systems. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RF MoD follows through on Gerasimov's "nuclear triad" and "lessons learned" rhetoric with a kinetic strike using a non-standard or "new" ballistic system (Iskander-M 800km or Oreshnik variant) against a Polish-Ukrainian border transit node to disrupt Zelenskyy’s diplomatic mission.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Recommendations:

1. J3 (Operations): Immediately deploy Military Police to Odesa to establish "Green Lanes" for military traffic amidst civilian congestion.
2. J6 (EW): Field-test the "Molniya-2" wreckage immediately to determine if these are the previously reported fiber-optic guided variants.
3. Strategic Comms: Publicly debunk RF "collapse" narratives in Donbas while acknowledging the difficulty of the situation to maintain morale without appearing detached from reality.