Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 14:10Z Focus: RF Strategic Fixation Expansion & Imminent Southern Armored Thrust

Key updates since last sitrep

• (13:55Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Russian Federation (RF) forces initiated Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Sumy Oblast. This expands the area of RF deep strike fixation from Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia into the Northeast Command Area of Responsibility (AOR).
• (13:38Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Groups of RF Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs, likely Shahed) detected moving from the Black Sea toward Chornomorsk/Odesa. This signifies an immediate, renewed kinetic threat against critical Southern logistics infrastructure following the Artsyz power failure (baseline context).
• (14:00Z, RF Source, MEDIUM) RF fundraising confirms deployment/support for assault infantry, reconnaissance, and tank elements of the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and 5th Separate Tank Brigade operating in the South-Dnieper direction. This corroborates preparation for the armored exploitation phase at the Herasymivka bridgehead.
• (13:50Z, Multi-Source, HIGH) European Union nations have reportedly reached a "turning point" agreement to utilize frozen Russian assets for the financial support of Ukraine, according to PM Tusk. This significantly mitigates the critical UAF domestic sustainment constraint previously identified (drone funding gap).
• (14:00Z, Kharkiv Gov, HIGH) Kharkiv Oblast authorities report the demining of over 159 hectares in the past week, indicating a successful transition to stabilization and normalization efforts in areas previously under sustained RF pressure.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Herasymivka / Odesa)

The tactical breach at Herasymivka remains the operational center of gravity.

• Armored Threat Confirmation: RF reporting on troop support in the "South-Dnieper direction" specifically names heavy armor and assault units (37th GMRB, 5th Tank Bde), indicating that RF Vostok Group is actively positioning high-value exploitation forces. This significantly raises the probability of an armored breakout attempt (MDCOA) within the next 6-12 hours.
• Logistical Targeting: The immediate launch of UAVs toward the Odesa/Chornomorsk logistical corridor (13:38Z) is highly correlated with the previous successful interdiction strike (Artsyz power failure). This renewed kinetic effort seeks to maximize the disruption of UAF redeployment and sustainment efforts aimed at sealing the Herasymivka breach.

Eastern Axis (Donetsk / Krasnolymanske)

No significant ground maneuver changes reported in the immediate window, but RF counter-UAS capabilities remain active.

• RF Vostok Group FPV operators (36th Motorized Rifle Brigade) claimed the successful destruction of a UAF heavy drone ("Baba Yaga") (14:00Z). This confirms RF continues to prioritize counter-battery/counter-UAS efforts necessary to support ground maneuvering.

Northeast Axis (Kharkiv / Sumy)

RF deep strike efforts are expanding geographically, while UAF stabilizes the rear.

• KAB Expansion: Confirmed KAB launches into Sumy Oblast (13:55Z) suggests RF is broadening its fixation operations across the entire northern front to prevent UAF reserves from massing toward the crucial Southern flank.
• Stabilization: Successful demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast (14:00Z) signal UAF confidence in maintaining control and transitioning to recovery operations following intense fighting.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Imminent Armored Exploitation (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The identified presence and support requirements for the 5th Separate Tank Brigade and 37th GMRB in the South-Dnieper direction are key indicators of RF intent to transition immediately from the tactical breach phase at Herasymivka to an operational armored thrust. The deployment of these specific units directly supports the MDCOA predicted in the baseline report.

2. Coordinated Logistical Interdiction (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The initiation of UAV strikes against Odesa/Chornomorsk is assessed as a synchronized effort to paralyze UAF operational mobility. RF intent is to ensure that critical Western logistics cannot reach Southern Command in time to reinforce the defense against the impending Herasymivka breakthrough.

3. Broadened Air Superiority Campaign (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The confirmed KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast (13:55Z) demonstrate RF willingness to expend high-value stand-off munitions to enforce battlefield geometry across a wider theater. This campaign aims to degrade UAF operational depth and force the deployment of AD systems away from the primary axis of advance (Herasymivka).

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Critical Financial Mitigation (CRITICAL): The reported EU agreement on utilizing frozen RF assets (13:50Z) is a strategic success that potentially provides a stable, long-term funding source for military sustainment. This directly addresses the critical constraint regarding domestic drone production identified in the previous sitrep.

2. Improved Civilian C2/Resilience (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The deployment of the "112 Ukraine" emergency application (13:41Z), capable of functioning without mobile connection, is a vital improvement in national resilience and civilian protection under conditions of severe infrastructure degradation and kinetic attack.

3. Northeast Stabilization: Demining efforts in Kharkiv (14:00Z) allow UAF forces previously tasked with holding lines to begin transitioning to rear-area security, consolidation, and preparation for future offensive or counter-offensive actions.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Counter-Narrative Success (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The Tusk announcement regarding frozen assets provides UAF and allies with a strong, tangible counter-narrative against persistent RF messaging suggesting Western fatigue and failure to commit long-term support. Zelenskyy's appeal directly links these funds to strengthening Ukraine's position at the negotiating table (13:46Z).

2. RF Internal Security/Justice Themes: RF state media continues to promote themes of decisive justice (sentencing of British foreign fighter) and institutional strength (SK RF cadet classes) (13:42Z, 13:51Z). This messaging targets domestic Russian audiences to maintain internal coherence and legitimize the conflict through nationalist and legalistic frameworks.

3. RF Internal Critique (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The propagation of historical quotes comparing economic thieves to spies/traitors by influential RF channels (13:47Z) suggests an ongoing focus on internal corruption within the RF war economy, potentially highlighting domestic discontent.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Immediate UAV/Missile Strangulation of Southern Logistics (Odesa) followed by Consolidation at Herasymivka. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF forces are currently executing the logistical targeting phase (UAV launch) aimed at maximizing supply disruption to Southern Command. This will be followed by the continued consolidation and positioning of the 37th GMRB and 5th Tank Brigade for a heavy armored push at Herasymivka (P1 trigger). KAB fixation across Sumy/Kharkiv/Donetsk will continue to tie up AD and reserves.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Armored Breakout toward Dnipropetrovsk Border. HIGH CONFIDENCE (Increased from previous sitrep). Based on the confirmed positioning of specific heavy armor units (37th GMRB, 5th Tank Bde), the operational window for a major armored push out of the 1km Herasymivka bridgehead is immediately open. This breakout would attempt to capitalize on the sustained logistical paralysis of the Odesa corridor and the expanded UAF AD burden from the Sumy KAB strikes.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements