Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 09:07Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (08:55Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) RF kinetic targeting expanded to the Dnipro region (Synelnykove district) with a threat of aviation guided munitions, marking a geographical extension of the ongoing logistics denial campaign.
• (08:53Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) Concurrent KAB launches were confirmed targeting the Donetsk region and northern Kharkiv region, indicating RF is executing simultaneous deep-strike operations across the Eastern and Southern fronts.
• (08:46Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) President Zelenskyy explicitly defined Ukraine’s diplomatic red line, stating Ukraine will not withdraw troops from Donbas, clarifying the parameters of the US-proposed "compromise."
• (08:37Z, AFU General Staff, HIGH) UAF reported the successful interception/suppression of 63 enemy UAVs in the preceding 24-hour period, signaling a recent high-volume RF saturation attack.
• (08:56Z, Defense Forces of the South, HIGH) UAF forces in the Southern sector inflicted significant attrition, reporting the destruction of 250 RF personnel, 50 vehicles, and 134 personnel shelters, suggesting ongoing successful defense or counter-battery operations.
• (08:55Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Zelenskyy confirmed that discussions regarding UAF force structure aim to maintain personnel strength not less than 800,000, establishing a strategic baseline for future mobilization and aid requirements.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Herasymivka/Odesa/Kherson)

The primary operational goal of the RF remains the strangulation of UAF logistics concurrent with preparation for the armored breakthrough at Herasymivka.

1. Odesa Logistics Corridor: KAB strikes targeting key coastal areas (Karolino-Buhaz, Ovidiopol) continue (08:36Z, 08:43Z). This synchronizes with previous strikes and aligns with the previous sitrep's assessment that RF is prioritizing the functional denial of the Southern GLOC.
2. Herasymivka/Zaporizhzhia Front: UAF defensive forces are confirmed to be inflicting severe attrition on RF combat power (08:56Z). Pro-RF sources report activity in the Orikhiv direction (08:52Z), suggesting continued fixing operations against established UAF defensive lines, likely to prevent reinforcement of the Gaychur River breach.
3. Dnipro Threat: The activation of an aerial strike threat in the Synelnykove district (08:55Z) is geographically significant, as this area sits immediately behind the Herasymivka/Zaporizhzhia axis and hosts critical logistics nodes that support the defense of Dnipro City.

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Kharkiv)

RF maintains kinetic pressure and confirms its focus on degrading UAF rear-area sustainment.

1. Donetsk/Kharkiv Strikes: KAB launches towards both the Donetsk region and northern Kharkiv region (08:53Z) confirm RF intent to fix UAF air defense assets away from the main effort in the South and to degrade UAF ability to rapidly deploy reserves.
2. Myrnohrad Area (Pokrovsk Direction): Pro-RF IO claimed defensive successes near Myrnohrad (09:01Z), indicating combat continuity in this heavily contested area. This aligns with the overall RF strategy of preventing UAF disengagement from the Donetsk front.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Deep Strike Escalation and Imminent Ground Maneuver)

1. Kinetic Synchronization and Deep Strike Expansion (HIGH Confidence): RF is executing a theater-wide integrated strike campaign, leveraging KABs to paralyze UAF response capacity. The new kinetic threats identified in Synelnykove (Dnipro) and Northern Kharkiv (08:53Z, 08:55Z) demonstrate a doctrinal shift to concurrent deep interdiction across four major axes (Odesa, Dnipro, Donetsk, Kharkiv). This maximization of pressure aims to rapidly consume UAF interceptor capacity and degrade logistics prior to the ground assault.

2. ISR and Target Guidance (MEDIUM Confidence): The presence of reconnaissance UAVs in the Beryslav district (Kherson) (09:00Z) and Poltava region (08:47Z) indicates ongoing target acquisition for subsequent strikes. The warning that the Beryslav UAV is a potential strike guidance platform aligns with the observed highly integrated RF targeting cycle previously noted in the Odesa region.

3. Counter-Hybrid Operations (RF perspective): RF FSB claimed success in a counter-hybrid operation, arresting 19 individuals involved in using SIM-boxes for alleged Ukrainian sabotage recruitment (08:46Z). While this may be propaganda, it indicates RF priority on domestic counter-disruption activities and justifies enhanced internal security measures.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Strategic Diplomatic Clarity (HIGH Confidence): President Zelenskyy has reinforced Ukraine's minimum demands, making it clear that UAF will not accept conditions involving withdrawal from Donbas (08:46Z). This stance is critical as it defines the upper limit of diplomatic compromise and directly counters the RF narrative that Ukrainian positions are weakening. Furthermore, he linked future diplomacy to the necessity of receiving the EU reparation credit (08:57Z), using financial stability as leverage.

2. Force Structure Mandate (HIGH Confidence): The mandate to maintain AFU strength at 800,000 personnel (08:55Z) signals UAF long-term commitment to a large-scale defensive war footing, requiring sustained mobilization and international resource allocation.

3. Counter-UAS Effectiveness (HIGH Confidence): The claim of 63 UAVs shot down (08:37Z) suggests UAF air defense systems (including recently deployed indigenous interceptors) maintained high effectiveness against a recent surge in RF drone use.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Financial Corruption Narrative (HIGH Confidence): RF state media (TASS) has escalated the financial disinformation campaign, utilizing a sanctioned US citizen (Mark Dugan) to accuse Umerov (Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council) of multi-million dollar theft and US real estate purchases (08:39Z). This is a focused effort to undermine key Ukrainian security personnel and fracture international trust ahead of crucial EU financial decisions.

2. Negotiation Narrative Shaping (HIGH Confidence): Zelenskyy is actively using diplomatic messaging to solidify external support, asserting that UAF defensive successes (like Kupyansk stabilization) directly improved Ukraine’s position in negotiations (08:53Z) and counter RF claims of victory.

3. EU Financial Confidence (MEDIUM Confidence): Reuters reporting (08:51Z) that EU leaders will find a solution for Ukraine financing on Friday mitigates the immediate risk of economic collapse suggested in the previous sitrep, potentially weakening the RF diplomatic leverage based on financial coercion.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Sustained Multi-Axis Kinetic Interdiction. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF will continue the maximalist aerial denial campaign, focusing strikes on logistics and C2 targets in the Odesa, Dnipro (Synelnykove), Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions until NLT 1400Z. The purpose is to force UAF command to commit reserves piecemeal and degrade rear-area cohesion, allowing the Herasymivka armored grouping to cross the Gaychur River with minimum aerial resistance.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Coordinated Armored Thrust and Deep Strike Decapitation. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RF initiates the heavy armored breakthrough at Herasymivka immediately (NLT 1200Z). Simultaneously, RF targets high-value UAF operational command nodes deep in the Dnipro or Poltava regions, leveraging the widespread distraction caused by the current multi-axis KAB and UAV strikes. This aims to paralyze UAF decision-making at the critical moment of the breach.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements