Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (05:56Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) UAV attack casualties confirmed in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) have risen to four wounded. This indicates continued RF prioritization of deep strikes against rear operational areas.
• (06:05Z, ЗОВА, HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an emergency alert, suggesting imminent or ongoing RF aerial activity targeting the urban area, following yesterday's KAB strikes.
• (06:01Z, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH) RF Ministry of Defense (MoD) is conducting an aggressive, highly incentivized recruitment campaign for contract soldiers focusing on the Moscow Region (Подмосковье). This signals urgency in force generation requirements.
• (06:03Z, ASTRA, HIGH) Former US President Trump’s recent address omitted any mention of Russia, Ukraine, or Venezuela, signaling a continued strong focus on internal US political policy.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): The operational center of gravity remains the tactical breach west of the Gaychur River near Herasymivka, where RF Vostok Group established a 1km deep bridgehead (baseline context). RF is now using deep strike assets (UAVs) to fix UAF attention further north, evidenced by the reported casualties in Kryvyi Rih (05:56Z). This activity aligns with the predicted MLCOA to disrupt UAF logistics and C2 before heavy armor insertion at the Gaychur River. The alert in Zaporizhzhia City (06:05Z) suggests the high-tempo urban KAB/UAV campaign is continuing to deny UAF rear area coordination.

Northeast Axis (Kupyansk): Situation stable; UAF control of 90% of Kupyansk remains confirmed (baseline context).

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Siversk): Mechanized pressure at Pokrovsk continues (baseline context). There are no new indicators of force generation movements toward Siversk following President Putin’s designation of it as a key objective, but the threat remains elevated.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL

1. Deep Strike Synchronization (HIGH Confidence): RF is utilizing precision (KABs on Zaporizhzhia, baseline context) and volume (UAVs on Kryvyi Rih, 05:56Z) to maximize operational disruption in the rear. This campaign is directly supporting the critical maneuver phase at Herasymivka by preventing UAF commitment of operational reserves.
2. Force Generation (HIGH Confidence): The aggressive, high-incentive recruitment push by RF MoD (06:01Z) points to immediate requirements for replacement and expansion forces, likely earmarked for the ongoing high-attrition offensives (e.g., Pokrovsk, and future Siversk operations). This is a qualitative risk for RF but sustains their quantitative advantage.
3. Herasymivka Breakout (IMMINENT Judgement): Based on the previous report's projection, the critical artillery surge (from the 260th GRAU Arsenal) was anticipated NLT 0600Z. The intense, concurrent deep strikes strongly suggest that the supporting fire preparation for the armored breakout west of the Gaychur River is now underway or immediately commencing.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are focused on containment operations in the Dnipropetrovsk sector and managing the critical logistical constraint at Artsyz (power loss until 26 Dec). UAF Civil-Military authorities are demonstrating vigilance and responsive action by issuing immediate alerts (Zaporizhzhia, 06:05Z) and reporting casualties quickly (Kryvyi Rih, 05:56Z). No reports of friendly tactical gains or major successful counterattacks in the immediate 6-hour period.

Information environment / disinformation

1. US Political Signaling: Former President Trump's exclusion of Russia and Ukraine from a key public address (06:03Z) is a significant political signal that RF information operations will exploit to sow doubt regarding the long-term continuity of US support and military aid.
2. RF Domestic Propaganda: RF channels are actively promoting military service via aggressive recruitment drives and celebrating past (March 2025) tactical successes (Sudzha operation, 06:03Z) to stabilize domestic morale and facilitate force generation efforts.
3. Financial Support Uncertainty: Reports that Belgium requires unlimited EU financial guarantees regarding seized RF assets (05:59Z) highlight bureaucratic friction that could slow down the release of significant financial resources intended to aid UAF and Ukraine's reconstruction.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF initiates armored breakout from Herasymivka. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF Vostok Group will likely capitalize on the darkness/early morning hours to insert heavy armor across the fortified Gaychur River bridgehead, following intensive artillery preparation (260th GRAU surge). The objective will be to achieve an operational depth of 3-5km and secure the immediate Dnipropetrovsk administrative border before UAF operational reserves can fully commit. RF deep strikes (KAB/UAV) on Zaporizhzhia and Odesa logistics will be maximized to ensure fixation of UAF defenses.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RF breaches the perimeter and rapidly secures a major GLOC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. Instead of a linear push, RF utilizes speed and tactical deception, bypassing localized UAF strongpoints and utilizing the breach to cut the primary E-W road network (T0401 or T0408) servicing the Velyka Novosilka defensive line, forcing a major UAF withdrawal or envelopment risk.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements