Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 00:10Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Multi-Axis UAV Saturation (CRITICAL): The RF aerial campaign has broadened significantly, forcing UAF AD de-confliction across three new axes, concurrent with the established critical vector toward Dnipropetrovsk.
• Northern UAV Vector: A new RF UAV group was detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast tracking south (23:40Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH). This opens a strategic deep strike vector toward Central Ukraine.
• Western UAV Vector: A separate RF UAV group was detected in Sumy Oblast tracking west (23:46Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH). This trajectory threatens Western/Central logistics and supply routes (GLOCs).
• Eastern UAV Vector: A UAV transitioned from Kharkiv Oblast into Donetsk Oblast (23:51Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH). This suggests immediate reconnaissance or kinetic fire support for localized ground action in the Eastern sector.
• RF IO - Geopolitical Framing: State media amplified claims attributed to Donald Trump regarding the US imposing a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers associated with Venezuela (00:01Z, TASS, HIGH). This supports RF narratives of aggressive Western economic unilateralism.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture is now characterized by a highly distributed and synchronized RF kinetic effort designed to maximize stress on UAF Air Defense Command (ADCOM) during the critical window for the Peschanoye ground maneuver.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk / Peschanoye): The operational risk remains CRITICAL. While the inbound UAV group targeting Dnipropetrovsk (PIR 10 from previous sitrep) is still assessed as the primary kinetic fixation for the imminent ground thrust, the proliferation of threats across the North/East may complicate UAF decision-making regarding AD asset allocation. ISR saturation at Peschanoye remains the highest priority ground requirement.

NORTHERN AXIS (Chernihiv / Sumy): The re-activation of these deep-strike vectors is assessed as a resource dilution tactic. The southbound Chernihiv vector and westbound Sumy vector compel AD assets to defend strategic rear areas, potentially drawing resources away from the defense of Dnipropetrovsk and Southern Command C2/Logistics.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk): The UAV movement from Kharkiv toward Donetsk suggests localized, time-sensitive kinetic support, likely pre-positioning reconnaissance or strike assets ahead of RF assaults in areas like Pokrovsk or Chasiv Yar, attempting to leverage the wider operational distraction.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Synchronized Multi-Axis Saturation (CRITICAL UPGRADE): RF forces have launched at least three distinct, concurrent UAV groups across Northern and Eastern Ukraine (Chernihiv, Sumy, Donetsk), in addition to the established critical vector toward Dnipropetrovsk. This constitutes a full-scale AD saturation effort intended to:

• Fix high-value AD systems (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) in the north and west.
• Ensure the Dnipropetrovsk strike achieves maximum impact by reducing regional AD density.
• Provide localized kinetic support in Donetsk under the cover of the larger aerial wave.

2. Logistics and Sustainment: RF logistics continue to support complex, integrated deep strike operations across vast distances, demonstrating robust logistics chains for the provision of numerous UAV platforms.

3. Command and Control: The simultaneous launch and vectoring of multiple, disparate UAV groups confirms highly effective and professional RF operational C2 capable of executing complex, multi-domain synchronization across several operational theaters.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF ADCOM must execute immediate resource de-confliction:

1. AD Prioritization (URGENT): The vector toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast must retain the highest engagement priority, as this strike directly enables the kinetic ground maneuver at Peschanoye (MLCOA).
2. Northern Vector Management: Mobile AD fire groups (MANPADS, Gepard/Shilka equivalents) should be immediately deployed along the projected flight paths in Chernihiv and Sumy to intercept lower-value/longer-range UAVs, preserving strategic AD missiles for HVTs in the south.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE remains focused on painting a picture of aggressive Western economic action:

1. Geopolitical Aggression Framing: The immediate amplification of the claimed US blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers is designed to frame the US as a coercive global actor, justifying Russia's anti-Western alignment and reinforcing internal narratives that Western powers rely on unilateral economic warfare rather than legal processes.
2. Target Audience: This messaging primarily targets global South nations and non-aligned states susceptible to anti-sanctions rhetoric.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The outlook is defined by the immediate kinetic complexity and the high likelihood of imminent ground maneuver.

MLCOA (Synchronized Breach and Strike): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will conclude the UAV saturation wave (NLT 170130Z). The Dnipropetrovsk strike will occur, creating disruption and degrading C2/logistics. This will be immediately followed by the ground maneuver at Peschanoye (Gaychur River), utilizing the resulting window of disruption to insert heavy armor across the river.

MDCOA (Strategic C2 Degradation): (MEDIUM Confidence, Increased Scope) Successful simultaneous impact of UAV strikes across multiple critical UAF C2 nodes (e.g., in Dnipropetrovsk and potential targets along the Sumy/Chernihiv deep strike routes). Severe C2 degradation could delay or paralyze UAF response to the Peschanoye breach, enabling deeper RF exploitation.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The complexity of the aerial threat necessitates specific focus on tracking the new vectors while maintaining pressure on the Peschanoye ground trigger.