Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 161905Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• Seversk Flank Under Pressure: (18:48Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО/DeepState, MEDIUM) UNCONFIRMED reports indicate the capture of Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) by RF forces. RF sources corroborate this with claims of success in the Seversk area (19:02Z). If confirmed, this constitutes a significant tactical breach on the northern Donbas defensive line.
• Deep Strike Targeting (Poltava): (18:50Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH) A dedicated RF Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was tracked in Poltava Oblast moving toward Myrhorod, indicating continued targeting of deep air base infrastructure.
• Critical UAV Track (Southern Operational Rear): (18:58Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH) A high-priority RF UAV was detected crossing the boundary of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, moving North. This trajectory places reconnaissance/strike assets in position to target UAF rear concentrations near the critical Peschanoye bridgehead or Dnipro logistics nodes.
• Zaporizhzhia Attrition Strike: (18:41Z, 18:59Z, Zaporizhzhia OMA, HIGH) A UAV strike was confirmed against civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, continuing the RF strategy of localized tactical attrition and terror.
• Solar Weather Warning: (18:39Z, ТАСС, HIGH) An early onset of a magnetic storm is anticipated, potentially disrupting SATCOM, GPS, and precision-guided munitions (PGMs) effectiveness for both sides in the immediate future.

Operational picture (by sector)

Operational tempo remains HIGH, driven by persistent RF ground assaults in the East and concurrent deep strike campaigns across the operational rear.

EASTERN AXIS (Seversk/Lyman): RF pressure has resulted in a likely tactical breakthrough at Serebryanka, as reported by DeepState (18:48Z) and supported by RF military blogger claims of "successes" near Seversk (19:02Z). Serebryanka is a critical point south of the Siversky Donets River. Its loss threatens to enable RF movement toward Siversk, potentially bypassing UAF defensive preparations and leveraging the momentum gained from recent successes in the Pokrovsk salient (PSR context).

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): The primary concern remains the vulnerability of UAF rear areas to exploitation from the confirmed RF bridgehead at Peschanoye (PDR context). The detection of a North-bound UAV track along the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border (18:58Z) strongly suggests RF forces are preparing ISR or precision strike support for an attempt to commit heavy maneuver forces across the Gaychur River during the night.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Sumy/Poltava): RF air assets are probing deeper than previously reported in this window. The UAV track toward Myrhorod (18:50Z) confirms RF intent to degrade UAF air denial capabilities and logistics. The new group heading toward Trostyanets (18:44Z) continues the fixing operation aimed at tying down UAF AD assets and ground reserves in the border regions.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Ground Maneuver and Breakthrough: RF intent on the Seversk axis appears aimed at achieving operational depth rather than just grinding attrition. The focus on Serebryanka is a direct threat to the current disposition of UAF forces protecting the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk grouping from the north.

• Unit Status: The persistent claims of successes near Seversk, coupled with the DeepState claim of a specific settlement capture, indicate RF forces in this area (likely elements of the Central Military District) have sufficient combat power and coordination to execute successful local penetration. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2. Threat Integration (Air/Ground): The synchronized timing of the critical UAV track (18:58Z) near the Peschanoye sector reinforces the previous assessment (PSR/PDR) that a heavy armor thrust remains the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA). The UAV is likely conducting terminal guidance preparation or confirming target lists for pre-assault fires.

3. Environmental Risk (Solar): The warning of impending magnetic storm activity (18:39Z) poses a complex operational factor.

• Assessment: While a storm could disrupt UAF C-UAS and high-precision FPV capabilities, it equally affects RF GPS-guided KABs and PGM delivery. However, RF's reliance on massed artillery (260th GRAU buildup, PDR context) and high-volume, low-tech Shahed UAVs (which use inertial navigation for much of the flight) may make them less vulnerable to PGM disruption than UAF counter-battery and FPV operations, potentially creating a temporary tactical window for RF maneuver.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Strategic Resilience (Energy): Ukrainian civil and economic leadership has demonstrated high adaptability by coordinating direct foreign energy procurement (18:42Z, 18:43Z). This mitigates the strategic effectiveness of RF winter strikes on energy infrastructure, ensuring critical resource supply and maintaining domestic morale/stability.

2. Information Maneuver: UAF affiliated channels are rapidly debunking contested battlefield narratives, specifically concerning Kupiansk (18:52Z, 18:54Z), ensuring that RF attempts to claim high-profile operational victories are immediately countered in the cognitive domain.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment is characterized by layered RF campaigns targeting both strategic focus and domestic cohesion.

• Strategic Distraction: The uncorroborated report concerning potential peace talks in March/April (18:45Z) sourced from German media is assessed as a strategic information operation designed to fracture Western resolve ahead of critical military aid decisions. (CONFIDENCE: LOW, UNCONFIRMED).
• Domestic Control: The documented closure of the political prisoner journal "Prison Herald" (18:37Z) signals a tightening of internal political control within Russia, coinciding with preparations for Putin's "Year in Review" event (18:54Z), designed to project stability and unity.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The highest probability of major ground action is concentrated in the Eastern Seversk sector and the Southern Peschanoye axis, likely leveraging the cover of night and potentially exploiting the anticipated solar weather effects.

MLCOA (Seversk Exploitation & Southern Preparation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will likely commit follow-on reserves to exploit the purported breach at Serebryanka, attempting to envelop Seversk from the South/East. Concurrently, the critical focus remains on the South: RF logistics/strike systems (backed by the identified UAV, 18:58Z) will complete preparations for the commitment of heavy armor at the Peschanoye bridgehead.

MDCOA (Night Armor Thrust at Peschanoye): (CRITICAL Confidence) RF Vostok Group commits tanks and IFVs across the Gaychur River during the night (NLT 170200Z). This maneuver would likely be preceded by focused UAV and KAB strikes (if not limited by solar weather effects) targeting UAF counter-attack positions and local C2 nodes in the rear of the Zaporizhzhia grouping.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The status of Serebryanka is now the most urgent tactical requirement, while confirmation of armor transit at Peschanoye remains the most critical strategic gap.