Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T14:05Z ANALYSIS CONTEXT: The enemy has expanded its high-yield attrition strategy (KAB launches) into the Zaporizhzhia operational area, indicating preparatory fires for maneuver elements across the entire Southern/Eastern theater. Logistics interdiction remains the main RF effort.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (13:46Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Active launch alerts issued for Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) across both Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This expands the confirmed geographical scope of the high-volume attrition campaign (P3 Gap updated).
• (13:39Z, RF Source, MEDIUM): Pro-RF sources reported sustained assault activity targeting Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), corroborating the intent to maintain pressure on this axis concurrent with the KAB strikes. (UNCONFIRMED success metrics).
• (13:58Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): UAF claimed a kinetic strike resulting in a significant fire at a factory in the Petrovsky district of occupied Donetsk city. This indicates UAF long-range strike capabilities remain effective against rear area infrastructure.
• (13:41Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): UAF 53rd Mechanized Brigade (SIGNUM unit) confirmed successful combat operations near Lyman. This mitigates the previous assessment of "rapid deterioration" in the Siversk/Lyman sector, confirming defensive resilience.
• (14:02Z, Kotsnews, HIGH): The RF Navy officially commissioned the new Project 677 Lada class non-nuclear submarine, "Velikiye Luki," signaling continued long-term naval modernization efforts.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk)

• Donetsk Attrition: KAB alerts continue (13:46Z). UAF conducted a successful strike on occupied Donetsk city (Petrovsky district factory, 13:58Z), potentially degrading a local RF logistics or command node. Assessment is that RF forces are prioritizing fixed position destruction over immediate large-scale ground maneuver in Donetsk city area.
• Lyman/Siversk: UAF 53rd Mechanized Brigade confirmed effective defensive operations (13:41Z). This sector remains under high pressure, but recent activity suggests stabilization, countering the previous report of "rapid deterioration."
• Kupyansk: Situation remains stable under UAF control (Zelenskyy visit confirmed previous report).

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro)

• KAB Escalation (CRITICAL): The extension of confirmed KAB launches into Zaporizhzhia Oblast (13:46Z) indicates RF is setting conditions for maneuver across a broader operational front.
• Huliaipole: RF sources report ongoing assault activity (13:39Z). If combined with KAB saturation, this suggests RF intent to fix UAF reserves in the Huliaipole area, potentially masking a larger push from the critical Peschanoye/Gaychur River bridgehead (P2 Gap).
• Peschanoye Bridgehead: No new information confirms the force composition or depth of the RF lodgment west of the Gaychur River (P2 Gap persists). The increased KAB and Huliaipole activity may be designed to draw attention away from this critical flank.

Deep Rear / RF Territory

• UAV Interdiction: RF AD claims destruction of eight UAF fixed-wing UAVs over Bryansk Oblast (13:43Z), confirming continued UAF deep strike and ISR penetration into RF territory, targeting military and economic infrastructure.
• Naval Capability: The commissioning of the "Velikiye Luki" submarine (14:02Z) enhances RF naval capability, likely contributing to long-term Kalibr cruise missile capacity.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Broadened KAB Preparation & Logistics Strangulation)

1. Main Effort (Attrition Expansion): The expansion of the KAB launch zone to include Zaporizhzhia (13:46Z) is the most significant tactical change. This signals that RF intent is no longer confined to degrading Donetsk fortifications but is preparing simultaneous, high-intensity operations in the Southern sector. This may prelude RF Vostok Group exploiting the Peschanoye breach or attempting a breakthrough near Huliaipole.
2. Naval Posture: The commissioning of the Project 677 submarine "Velikiye Luki" is a strategic capability enhancement. While not an immediate tactical threat, its eventual deployment (likely Baltic or Black Sea) increases RF maritime strike resilience.
3. Logistics Status: UAF deep strikes against targets like the factory in occupied Donetsk (13:58Z) demonstrate that UAF is successfully targeting key RF rear-area assets, although the operational impact requires further assessment. RF logistics interdiction (Zatoka, Kostiantynivka, per previous reports) remains highly effective.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Tactical Defense: UAF 53rd Mechanized Brigade units confirmed active and successful defense in the Lyman sector (13:41Z), demonstrating high unit morale and effective use of specialized drone assets.
• Strategic Diplomacy & Sustainment:
  • UAF negotiation teams are meeting with US counterparts in Miami to discuss long-term security guarantees and economic recovery (13:38Z).
  • The Council of Europe confirmed the establishment of the Compensation Commission for damages (13:48Z).
  • The previously reported €250M commitment from the Netherlands for F-16 ammunition was reconfirmed (13:51Z), securing a critical sustainment pipeline for future air capability integration.
• Economic Advantage: Reports indicate Russian oil prices have dropped to minimum levels since the invasion (13:58Z), a positive trend supporting the effectiveness of international sanctions.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Territorial Integrity Targeting: RF state media leveraged commentary from former Austrian FM Karin Kneissl, suggesting Ukraine's territory "may change significantly" (14:04Z). This narrative is designed to precondition Western and domestic audiences for long-term territorial concessions.
2. Sanctions Efficacy (IO Push): Pro-RF sources amplified claims by the Italian Deputy PM that Western sanctions are destroying European economies (14:03Z). This is a focused IO effort to exploit previously reported friction regarding frozen assets (DS Belief 0.046213).
3. Counter-IO (Morale): UAF media continues a successful counter-IO campaign, evidenced by the interview with a captured RF soldier near Lyman highlighting poor logistics and troop conditions (13:42Z). This supports UAF morale and encourages RF desertion.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Attrition and Fixing): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will utilize the newly expanded KAB zones in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk to continue deep attrition targeting (P3). The immediate objective will be to fix UAF reserves in the Huliaipole area via ground assaults (13:39Z claims) and prevent reinforcement toward the critical Gaychur River breach.

MDCOA (Operational Exploitation via Gaychur): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF Vostok Group attempts to transition its Peschanoye bridgehead from light infantry/recon to a robust, combined arms foothold by moving heavy equipment (tanks, IFVs, bridging assets) across the Gaychur River under the cover of the expanded KAB fire and the Huliaipole fixing operation. Confirmation of heavy armor crossing the Gaychur remains the primary decision trigger.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements