Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-16T05:30Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL – Defensive operations are centered on containing the Peschanoye breach (Dnipropetrovsk) and preparing for the imminent RF massed artillery engagement signalled by 260th GRAU activity.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Zaporizhzhia Casualties Confirmed: Drone strike on a high-rise in Zaporizhzhia (reported previously at 04:10Z) is confirmed to have resulted in two civilian casualties (04:59Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH). This updates the BDA report with human impact data.
• New EU Sanctions Package: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced negotiations concluded for a new package of EU sanctions targeting the Russian Federation (04:43Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH). This signals sustained Western economic pressure.
• RF-Iran Diplomatic Signaling: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s interview summary highlighted continued strategic alignment and counter-Western coordination with Iran (04:55Z, Два майора, MEDIUM).
• UAF Claimed Losses: General Staff AFU estimates 1,150 RF personnel losses over the preceding 24-hour period (05:00Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational tempo remains high across the Eastern and Southern Axes. RF efforts focus on exploiting the logistical challenges created by UAF deep strikes and maximizing pressure on key UAF defensive shoulders (Siversk, Pokrovsk).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Intent: The confirmed casualty report from Zaporizhzhia reinforces the RF strategy of indiscriminate kinetic action against urban centers, aiming to degrade civilian morale and force UAF AD dispersal away from frontline logistics hubs. This supports the classification of RF air/missile strikes against rear infrastructure as having dual kinetic/psychological objectives.

Logistics & Sustainment: No new data regarding the rate of supply via heavy-lift hexacopters (Peschanoye) has been received. The RF commitment to this bridgehead remains robust, suggesting operational priority over tactical expediency.

Strategic Alignment (Lavrov Interview): The summarized remarks confirm RF intent to deepen military and political cooperation with Iran. This likely includes continued Military Technical Cooperation (MTC) regarding UAV technology, PGMs, and counter-sanction mechanisms. This mitigates the long-term impact of new EU sanctions (04:43Z).

Threat Assessment Conclusion: The immediate threat remains the physical breakthrough in the East driven by GRAU firepower, exacerbated by operational strangulation attempts (Zatoka/Kostiantynivka). RF strategic maneuvering (Iran, sanctions countermeasures) aims to ensure long-term sustainment despite Western pressure.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces continue to manage high intensity fighting while maintaining effective strategic messaging.

1. Strategic Communication: The GS AFU release of high RF loss figures (1,150 personnel) aims to sustain domestic and international support by demonstrating the high cost of the RF offensive efforts.
2. AD Posture: The kinetic strike in Zaporizhzhia (04:59Z) requires immediate post-incident review of AD coverage boundaries, particularly for slow-moving UAVs targeting high-rise structures, which may be repurposed for C2 or observation posts.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO Strategy: RF state media and associated channels (ТАСС, Новости Москвы) are prioritizing narratives that emphasize domestic normalcy, rule of law (Khabarovsk police reports), and socio-economic minutiae (travel debt thresholds, celebrity disputes). This functions as a "Normalization IO" strategy designed to distract the internal population from battlefield setbacks and external sanctions pressure. The Lavrov interview serves the geopolitical axis, assuring non-Western allies of RF resilience.

UAF/Allied IO Strategy: Focus remains on documenting RF brutality (Zaporizhzhia casualty reports) and highlighting international punitive measures (New EU Sanctions). This supports the narrative of RF global isolation and illegitimacy.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Vostok Sustainment & GRAU Pre-positioning): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF Vostok Group will maintain high-intensity combat to fix UAF reserves around the Gaychur River (Peschanoye). Tactical maneuver elements (likely motorized infantry supported by drones) will attempt shallow depth exploitation. Simultaneously, the 260th GRAU assets will complete final pre-positioning, with the start of the massed artillery saturation barrage expected NLT 2025-12-16 1200Z (Unchanged).

MDCOA (Operational Encirclement): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF executes a full-scale synchronized operational thrust: GRAU saturation breaches the Pokrovsk line, allowing RF maneuver forces to push south and west, while Vostok Group expands the Peschanoye breach north toward the strategic rear of the Donetsk grouping.

Implication of Sanctions: While new EU sanctions are a strategic long-term factor, they will have no measurable impact on operations within the 6-12 hour window.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

All critical gaps remain unaddressed and increase in urgency given the anticipated timeline for the 260th GRAU operation. Collection efforts must prioritize identifying the RF main effort.