Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T14:34Z CONTEXT: This report integrates new intelligence regarding persistent close-quarters combat in the Eastern Axis, enemy tactical adaptation, and significant positive diplomatic movement countering prior information environment concerns.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (14:14Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH) UAF 425th Regiment "Skelya" confirmed active drone search and strike operations against Russian Federation (RF) forces operating within the streets of Pokrovsk, confirming persistent close-quarters combat inside the city objective area.
• (14:06Z, MoD Russia, HIGH) RF confirmed use of the Molniya-2 fixed-wing UAV variant specifically adapted to deliver tactical smoke charges for concealment of assault detachments in the Krasny Liman direction.
• (14:09Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Germany plans to deepen defense cooperation with Ukraine, outlining a 10-point defense plan, suggesting positive strategic momentum following the high-level Berlin talks.
• (14:31Z, TASS, MEDIUM) RF Information Operations (IO) channels are amplifying claims (citing Washington Post sources) that the Ukrainian energy system is on the "verge of collapse" and Kyiv is "a step away from massive blackout," validating the predicted imminent kinetic escalation against infrastructure.
• (14:27Z, Операция Z, LOW) RF sources claimed the capture of a base belonging to the elite UAF UAV unit "Ptakhy Madyara." This claim remains UNCONFIRMED and highly suspicious, potentially a major IO effort to degrade morale among specialist units.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Assessment: The kinetic threat remains CRITICAL (as per previous report, pending 260th GRAU surge). New activity focuses on tactical concealment and informational effects.

1. Tactical Adaptation (Krasny Liman): The use of Molniya-2 for smoke deployment suggests RF commanders are rapidly adapting their tactical playbook to counter UAF dominance in overhead ISR and FPV strike capabilities, specifically seeking to close with UAF positions under cover.
2. Information Shaping (Deep Strike): RF IO is actively preparing the domestic and international audience for a massive, imminent energy strike campaign, utilizing Western media quotes (Washington Post) to amplify the perceived effectiveness of previous strikes and the vulnerability of the grid. This strongly supports the MLCOA/MDCOA derived from the previous report concerning saturation attacks using the new dual-warhead Shahed variant.
3. Logistics: The critical SAR score at 260th GRAU (from previous report) remains the primary logistical indicator. No new data on rail outflow destinations (Ilovaisk vs. Volnovakha) has been received.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Force Posture: UAF tactical elements (specifically 425th Regiment) remain highly engaged in the Pokrovsk area, utilizing drone assets effectively to counter RF advances within the urban environment.
• Public Health: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (OVA) continues public health initiatives, demonstrating resilience and administrative control in the rear areas despite expanded RF KAB strikes (previous report).

Information environment / disinformation

• RF Main Effort: RF IO is running simultaneous campaigns:
  1. Energy Collapse Narrative (Blackout Threat): High-volume, high-confidence reports claiming the collapse of the energy grid (14:20Z, 14:31Z). Objective: Induce panic and erode trust in UAF defenses ahead of kinetic strikes.
  2. Western Burden Narrative: Messaging emphasizing that the EU will obligate private business to fund Ukrainian reconstruction and highlighting the cost of sanctions to US business ($100B). Objective: Undermine Western cohesion and commitment.
  3. Occupation Legitimacy: Focused messaging on rapid administrative progress regarding housing compensation in occupied territories (DPR, Bakhmut). Objective: Stabilize and co-opt civilian populations in seized areas.
• UAF/Diplomatic Counter-IO: Positive reporting on US-Ukraine dialogue (including with Trump advisors) and the announcement of a German 10-point defense plan serves to counter RF narratives of diminishing external support (P4 gap mitigation).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Retaliatory Air Attack - HIGH Confidence): RF is highly likely to execute the predicted complex air attack utilizing the 100kg Shahed variant, targeting critical energy infrastructure in the eastern/central operational rear (Kyiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia). The heavy IO push regarding energy collapse serves as preparatory information conditioning for this strike.

MDCOA (Pokrovsk Reinforcement - MEDIUM Confidence): If the 260th GRAU outflow is confirmed to be routed toward the Eastern Axis, a renewed, highly aggressive RF artillery-supported mechanized push against Pokrovsk and/or Chasiv Yar is anticipated within the next 48-72 hours. RF commanders may use the newly adapted Molniya-2 smoke charges to mask approach vectors in these critical sectors.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements