Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T09:35Z Focus: Critical RF air warfare adaptation and immediate UAF counter-drone threat assessment.

Key updates since last sitrep

• CRITICAL RF Air Warfare Adaptation: GUR reports that Russian forces have adapted R-60 (AA-8 Aphid) air-to-air missiles for mounting on Geran-series (Shahed) UAVs, likely intended to engage low-flying UAF anti-drone aircraft and helicopters (09:32, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM-HIGH).
• UAF Counter-Drone Success & Adaptation: A UAF Yak-52 light aircraft, employed as an improvised anti-drone platform, successfully used small arms fire to neutralize an RF Shahed UAV over the Odesa coastline (09:02, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH).
• Deep Strike Continuation: Two UAF UAVs were confirmed shot down over Tula Oblast (RF deep rear), sustaining the campaign against Russian infrastructure (09:27, ASTRA, HIGH).
• International Aid Confirmed: Poland confirmed the imminent transfer of 6-8 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, expected to be completed by the end of December 2025 (09:24, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
• Logistical Interdiction Claim: RF sources published footage purporting to show UAF logistics vehicles (trucks, ATVs) destroyed on minefields near Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, suggesting tactical difficulty in UAF resupply in that sector (09:30, Поддубный, MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia)

• Odesa: The successful engagement of a Shahed by a Yak-52 demonstrates the tactical flexibility of UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs). However, this specific countermeasure is now highly vulnerable to the newly reported R-60/Geran adaptation.
• Zaporizhzhia: RF continues to claim tactical advances. Russian GrV "Vostok" claims seizure of the settlement Peschanoe (09:11, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED, LOW). RF VDV forces also claim success in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically on the western flank (09:07, 09:25). UAF air defense warning in the area has expired (09:15). Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Kupyansk)
• Kramatorsk: A UAV was detected inbound on a course toward Kramatorsk (09:20, Air Force UAF). This confirms continued RF shaping fires/reconnaissance deep into the Donetsk region, possibly targeting rear logistics or C2 nodes.
• Kupyansk-Uzlovoy: RF claims indicate effective use of minefields against UAF forward logistics lines (09:30). If corroborated, this necessitates immediate UAF Engineer Corp route clearance and counter-mobility operations to secure supply chains. Deep Rear (RF Territory)
• Tula Oblast: Two UAVs downed (09:27) maintain pressure on RF military-industrial and logistics centers outside the immediate conflict zone.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Threat Level: CRITICAL (R-60/Geran Adaptation) The integration of R-60 heat-seeking air-to-air missiles onto Geran UAVs represents a significant counter-doctrine move by the RF.

1. Threat to UAF AD: Low-flying UAF assets (helicopters, light aircraft, and potentially high-performance AD drones) previously used to intercept Shaheds are now severely jeopardized. The R-60 has a maximum range of 8-10 km, significantly exceeding the effective engagement range of small arms used on Yak-52s.
2. Impact on MLCOA: The previous MLCOA (Retaliatory Saturation) involving the new 100kg Shahed variant will likely be supported by these R-60 equipped drones, providing an air defense escort against UAF interceptors, increasing the overall effectiveness and survivability of the strike packages.
3. RF Logistics: Continued fundraising appeals for VDV units (09:05) suggest localized, tactical sustainment gaps persist despite the observed surge activity at the 260th GRAU (Previous Report).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Innovation: The successful tactical use of the Yak-52 (09:02) demonstrates agile, low-cost AD innovation, though this tactic must now be reviewed immediately due to the R-60 threat.
• External Support: The confirmed transfer of 6-8 Polish MiG-29s (09:24) offers a valuable, near-term boost to UAF tactical aviation capacity and is a positive diplomatic output (Geopolitical Shift: HIGH).
• Logistics: UAF forces are experiencing sustained pressure on logistics lines, especially near Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, demanding resource prioritization for mine clearance.

Information environment / disinformation

• RF IO Focus: RF channels are pushing uncorroborated tactical gains (Peschanoe) and leveraging emotional narratives (wounded zoo animal, 09:04) alongside strategic disinformation (Mariupol 'library' claims, 09:14) to maintain internal morale and degrade UAF credibility.
• Election Narrative Countered: The TASS/Bild claim (09:05) that Kyiv might rapidly concede on NATO membership and hold elections is directly contradicted by KMIS polling (09:10, 09:17, 09:29). 91% of Ukrainians oppose holding elections before a ceasefire, indicating strong domestic resistance to perceived strategic compromises. This undermines the RF narrative of a government preparing to capitulate.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Modified Retaliatory Saturation): RF forces will execute the previously anticipated complex air attack (utilizing 100kg Shaheds), prioritizing Odesa and Dnipro. This strike package will now likely include R-60 adapted Geran UAVs providing counter-interceptor defense. This transition introduces a new layer of complexity to UAF air defense planning. MDCOA (Kupyansk Offensive Exploitation): Following reports of UAF logistical disruption near Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, RF GrV 'Zapad' may attempt to immediately exploit the logistical choke point with probing attacks to secure local tactical advantage before the 260th GRAU artillery surge arrives.

Actionable Recommendation: Immediate suspension of low-altitude anti-drone patrols (helicopters, light fixed-wing) in high-risk zones (Odesa, Dnipro approaches) until EW/AD doctrine can be updated to mitigate the R-60/Geran threat.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements