Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-15T01:15Z PRIORITY: HIGH (Ballistic Threat and Thermobaric Assessment)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Huliaipole Strike Claim: RF Milblogger claims successful strike by a TOS-2 heavy thermobaric rocket system, attached to the Vostok Grouping, targeting UAF strongholds west of the Haiychur River near Huliaipole (01:03Z, Colonelcassad, LOW Confidence - UNCONFIRMED). This indicates continued localized high-intensity kinetic activity in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
• RF Internal Manpower Push: The Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) in Khabarovsk Krai launched a recruitment hotline. This confirms ongoing efforts to bolster internal security/domestic manpower, likely to backfill personnel redeployed for the conflict or to meet internal security demands (01:05Z, Khabarovsk MVD, HIGH Confidence).
• Kinetic Stasis (Deep Strike/Air): The anticipated RF high-speed ballistic response to the Rostov deep strike (predicted for 01:00Z - 04:00Z) has not yet occurred. No new UAV or missile strikes against Ukrainian territory have been confirmed since the 00:41Z sitrep. (Analyst Judgment, MEDIUM Confidence).

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Current Threat Level: HIGH (Anticipated Ballistic Response / Thermobaric Engagement)

1. Thermobaric Use: The UNCONFIRMED deployment of the TOS-2 heavy thermobaric system suggests RF commanders are utilizing high-yield, short-range weapons to break stubborn UAF field defenses. This indicates operational frustration with the slow pace of advance in sectors like Huliaipole and a willingness to commit high-value specialized assets. DS belief supports "Military Action: Artillery Barrage by Russian forces on Ukrainian positions in Huliaipole" (0.178160) and "Technology Deployment: Use of Heavy Thermobaric Rocket System" (0.163505).
2. Strategic Resource Strain: The MVD recruitment drive, confirmed by official sources, reflects a persistent need for personnel mobilization across the entire RF power structure, likely taxing both internal security and front-line combat forces.
3. Kinetic Intent: RF intent to execute a decisive, visible retaliation for the UAF deep strike on Rostov remains HIGH. UAF AD assets must maintain maximum readiness, as the lack of action in the last hour may precede a complex saturation launch.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF AD commands maintain a heightened posture in accordance with the 00:41Z recommendation, prioritizing high-tier interceptors for expected ballistic threats. UAF defensive formations in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Huliaipole area) are currently attempting to verify the impact of the claimed TOS-2 strike. Critical tasking involves maintaining logistical readiness in the Eastern Axis to sustain 7 KShDV and other critical units before the 260th GRAU-sourced artillery arrives.

Information environment / disinformation

RF messaging is currently focused on tactical validation through Milblogger channels. The specific citation of the TOS-2 strike aims to project kinetic dominance and reassure the domestic audience that RF forces are successfully degrading UAF strongholds, contrasting the narrative of the previous UAF successes (Crimean SEAD, Pokrovsk defense). The official MVD recruitment message is a strategic IO effort demonstrating domestic order and continued governance capacity despite ongoing conflict demands.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Ballistic Launch and Sustained Thermobaric Shaping RF will execute the predicted high-impact missile strike against strategic targets (C2, key logistics) in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia area within the next 3 hours (before 04:00Z). Simultaneously, the Vostok Grouping will maintain heavy fire (artillery and specialized systems like TOS) in the Huliaipole sector to further soften defenses and secure observation/fire points along the Haiychur River line prior to any main ground effort coinciding with the arrival of the 260th GRAU materials.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Coordinated Ground Thrust at Huliaipole RF utilizes the cover of the predicted deep ballistic strike (creating AD distraction and UAF C2 stress) to immediately follow up the claimed TOS-2 saturation with a localized, dismounted, and mechanized frontal assault across the Haiychur River. If successful, this creates a major penetration threat to the UAF operational rear in the Zaporizhzhia sector.

Recommendation: UAF J2/OC South must immediately prioritize P2 collection requirements for Huliaipole BDA. If defenses are confirmed degraded by the claimed TOS-2 strike, reserve forces must be prepared to reinforce or counter-attack the Haiychur River line immediately upon confirmation of the RF ballistic launch.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements