(19:35Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Finland (President Stubb) has joined the ongoing US-Ukraine security negotiations in Berlin, signaling strategic integration of key NATO Eastern Flank partners into the new security architecture discussions.
(19:11Z, Air Force, HIGH): RF forces initiated KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes targeting the Donetsk region, confirming the continued high-intensity kinetic threat in the Eastern Axis immediate rear areas.
(19:17Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM): RF forces (70th Regiment) are engaged in active ground maneuver operations near Orekhov (Zaporizhzhia sector), suggesting RF is opening a localized offensive vector in the Southern Axis.
(19:17Z, Два майора, LOW): UNCONFIRMED RF claim of capturing Varvarovka (Eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Requires immediate verification to assess localized shifts in the Line of Contact (LOC).
(19:19Z, Air Force, HIGH): New RF UAV (Shahed-type) was detected moving toward the Chernihiv region from the East, indicating a renewed RF effort to pressure Northern/Deep Rear logistics and infrastructure.
(19:21Z, Kharkiv Admin, HIGH): Hazardous weather warning issued for Kharkiv region, likely impacting ISR collection and ground/air operations in the Northern Eastern Axis in the next 6-12 hours.
Operational picture (by sector)
Sector
Assessment
Details
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk)
Contested - High Kinetic Threat
RF executed airstrikes (directed by ground/drone) targeting UAF positions West of Pokrovsk (Два майора, 19:25Z), indicating determined efforts to suppress UAF defensive lines immediately following their claimed capture of the city. Active KAB usage confirmed in the broader Donetsk region (Air Force, 19:11Z). UAF 3rd Army Corps units continue effective FPV drone interdiction (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 19:16Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia)
Localized RF Offensive
RF 70th Regiment confirmed engaged near Orekhov (Операция Z, 19:17Z), suggesting a localized RF advance effort. Claimed capture of Varvarovka (Два майора, 19:17Z) in Eastern Zaporizhzhia, if confirmed, reinforces the assessment of continuous small-unit maneuver intended to stretch UAF reserves.
Air Domain (Deep Strike - UAF)
Preparation Phase (Imminent)
UAF UAV activity detected moving from Kirovohrad toward Cherkasy (Air Force, 19:20Z) and a separate UAV vector moving through Kherson toward the Black Sea (Air Force, 19:31Z). This activity strongly correlates with previously anticipated multi-axis deep strike planning, likely leveraging the temporary Crimea IADS gap.
Air Domain (Threat - RF)
Northward Expansion
RF launched a UAV targeting Chernihiv from the East (Air Force, 19:19Z). This, combined with the earlier KAB strikes on Donetsk, demonstrates RF utilization of precision kinetic assets across multiple vectors to inhibit UAF logistics and command.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Threat Level: HIGH (Air/Artillery Threat)
Kinetic Intent: RF maintains a high tempo of localized ground offenses in both the Pokrovsk approach and the Zaporizhzhia sector (Orekhov/Varvarovka). The immediate threat is the combined usage of KABs in the Donetsk rear areas and the likely high-volume artillery saturation expected within the next 24-48 hours (from the 260th GRAU activity spike, per Daily Report).
Aviation and ISR Adaptation: RF utilizes integrated ISR/drone support to direct punitive air strikes (West of Pokrovsk) and is expanding UAV reconnaissance/strike vectors deep into Central and Northern Ukraine (Chernihiv vector).
Logistics/Sustainment: Pro-Russian volunteer groups remain highly active and successful in fundraising (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 19:17Z) and supplying tactical units (Фронтовой снабженец, recurring), suggesting continuous, decentralized sustainment is effective in buffering official logistical shortfalls.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Domain: UAF maintains local tactical superiority in FPV warfare, evidenced by successful strikes reported by the 3rd Army Corps (19:16Z). Defensive lines west of Pokrovsk appear to be holding against immediate RF aerial pressure.
Strategic/Diplomatic Success: The arrival of the Finnish President at the Berlin security talks (Оперативний ЗСУ, 19:35Z) represents a critical strategic diplomatic success. It signifies broad, high-level, practical engagement from NATO allies on future security architecture, reinforcing the value of the ongoing discussions that have been extended into 15 December (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 19:34Z).
Deep Operations: The multiple, converging UAV vectors (Kherson/Black Sea, Kirovohrad/Cherkasy) confirm the execution phase of the anticipated deep strike operation is approaching launch.
Information environment / disinformation
EU Division Campaign: RF and pro-Russian actors are successfully amplifying friction within the EU. Statements by Slovak PM Fico (TASS, 19:33Z) and the actions of Hungarian PM Orbán (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 19:38Z) are synchronized to delegitimize financial aid to Ukraine. UAF counter-IO has responded aggressively, labeling Orbán a "valuable frozen Russian asset" (STERNENKO, 19:22Z), indicating the severity of the internal political challenge.
RF Consolidation Narrative: RF IO is aggressively pushing narratives of confirmed control over Krasnoarmeyisk/Pokrovsk (Colonelcassad, 19:20Z), intending to lower UAF morale and justify ongoing punitive strikes in the area.
Demographic IO: Pro-Russian channels are using the presence of foreign workers (e.g., Indian workers for Nova Poshta) in Ukraine to push narratives of geopolitical weakness and the "new world order" (Alex Parker Returns, 19:12Z), aiming to sow domestic dissent regarding sovereignty and demographics.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Immediate UAF Deep Strike on Maritime Targets
UAF is highly likely to execute the prepared deep strike within the next 6 hours, utilizing the UAV assets currently maneuvering toward the Black Sea and Cherkasy vectors. The primary targets are assessed to be RF naval assets, logistics nodes, and air assets in occupied Crimea, exploiting the confirmed IADS degradation (P3 Gap).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RF Pre-emptive Missile Strike on Logistics Hubs
RF intelligence, having detected UAF UAV positioning (Kirovohrad to Cherkasy/Black Sea), may attempt a high-intensity missile/KAB strike against known UAF drone assembly areas or logistical centers in Central Ukraine (e.g., Dnipro, Odesa, Cherkasy) to disrupt the planned strike packages before launch. The increased KAB threat in Donetsk and the new UAV threat in Chernihiv are indicators of RF pre-strike shaping.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Priority
Gap / Request
Justification / Need
P1 (CRITICAL)
260th GRAU Outflow Vector (URGENT)
(UNCHANGED) Verification of the rail movement destination (Volnovakha vs. Ilovaisk) is paramount to predicting the main effort of the renewed RF artillery offensive (expected 24-48 hours).
P2 (URGENT)
Verification of Varvarovka Status (Zaporizhzhia)
Immediate IMINT/HUMINT needed to verify the claimed RF seizure of Varvarovka (19:17Z). Confirmation is necessary to adjust LOC mapping and assess the tactical threat to the Orekhov axis.
P3 (PRIORITY)
RF IADS Status in Crimea
(UNCHANGED) Monitor SIGINT for new RF radar emissions (e.g., replacement 96L6 or Kasta-2E2 systems) or changes in RF naval activity in the Black Sea, which would indicate the temporary deep strike window is closing.
P4 (PRIORITY)
UAF Deep Strike Target Indicators (URGENT)
Monitor SIGINT/IMINT for indicators of high-value RF assets repositioning in Crimea (naval movements, command centers) that correlate with the UAV vectors observed toward the Black Sea.
P5 (PRIORITY)
Impact of Kharkiv Weather
Monitor for RF exploitation attempts (ground maneuver or limited strikes) in the Kharkiv sector, capitalizing on the predicted severe weather conditions (19:21Z) which may mask localized RF activity.
