Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 14/12/2025 10:40Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (10:10Z, MoD Russia, LOW) RF claimed the liberation of Varvarovka (Zaporozhye region) by the Vostok Group of Forces. This specific geographical claim is UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources and follows earlier general RF claims of breakthroughs near Huliaipole.
• (10:22Z, GS ZSU, HIGH) High-intensity fighting is confirmed across all primary axes, specifically noting sustained clashes in the Pokrovsk direction (near Udachne, Novomykolayivka, and towards Rodynske/Myrnohrad), reinforcing the previous assessment of the sector being highly contested.
• (10:21Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) New inbound Shahed UAVs launched from the Black Sea are approaching critical logistics nodes in the Odesa region (Serhiivka, Zatoka, Chornomorsk), compounding the threat to the already crippled infrastructure.
• (10:13Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH) High-level US political figures (Witkoff, Kushner) arrived in Berlin for negotiations with President Zelensky regarding a peace plan, indicating an immediate shift to a critical diplomatic phase parallel to sustained kinetic operations.
• (10:25Z, ASTRA, HIGH) RF forces conducted a strike on a Kherson hospital, resulting in injuries to a nurse and a patient, confirming continued RF disregard for protected civilian infrastructure.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Ground Operations: RF activity aligns with the previously assessed MLCOA (Adaptive Squeeze), focusing on maintaining high pressure across the Donetsk axis while conducting local, opportunistic advances in Zaporizhzhia. The claim regarding Varvarovka (Zaporizhzhia) suggests the Vostok Group is achieving limited tactical success, attempting to convert fixing attacks into penetrations (MoD Russia, 10:10Z).

Air/Missile/Drone Threat (CRITICAL): The primary kinetic threat remains complex aerial saturation:

1. KAB Threat: Still assessed as HIGH, targeting the operational rear (Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk boundary).
2. UAV Threat (Southern): Confirmed use of Shahed drones targeting Odesa's coastal infrastructure (Serhiivka, Zatoka, Chornomorsk) (Air Force ZSU, 10:21Z). This specific targeting aims to exacerbate the ongoing infrastructure crisis in Odesa, potentially disrupting critical Danube/Black Sea logistics.
3. HARM Targeting (Kherson): Confirmed strike on a civilian hospital in Kherson resulted in casualties (ASTRA, 10:25Z). This continues the pattern of using precision/area fires against non-military targets, generating fear and requiring UAF resource allocation to disaster response.

Logistics and Sustainment: No new information regarding the status of the 260th GRAU artillery surge; the hypothesis of rolling, dispersed fires (MLCOA) remains the most likely explanation for the delay of a single massive event.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces maintained a successful active defense structure:

• Repelled 2 RF assaults in the volatile border areas of Kursk/North Slobozhansky directions (GS ZSU, 10:22Z).
• Confirmed holding positions across the Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka) and Southern (Huliaipole, Orikhiv) fronts, engaging in maneuver defense and preventing consolidation of RF gains reported from the previous 24-hour cycle (GS ZSU reports, 10:22Z).
• An uncorroborated video report showed a suspected RF Shahed drone landing intact without detonation (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 10:11Z). This incident suggests successful EW intervention or technical failure, which reflects effective UAF counter-drone operations.

Information environment / disinformation

The informational environment is currently dominated by the parallel diplomatic track initiated in Berlin.

Russian Narrative (Strategic Deterrence): RF state media immediately moved to establish red lines for negotiation:

• Kremlin spokesperson Peskov used historical context (WWII/Fascism) to frame RF actions (TASS, 10:11Z).
• Senior official Ushakov explicitly stated that any peace plan aiming for the return of Crimea or NATO membership is a "million percent" failure, setting maximum pre-conditions for engagement (TASS, 10:21Z).
• Kremlin sources stated they are unlikely to accept "sharp changes" to existing peace drafts (ASTRA, 10:37Z). Assessment: Russia is using the negotiation window as a platform for propaganda, signaling inflexibility and attempting to dictate terms externally.

Ukrainian Narrative (Principled Compromise): President Zelensky confirmed the submission of new peace proposals to the US, noting the plan must be "just" and "truly stop the war" (RBK-Ukraine, 10:27Z, 10:35Z). Zelensky also acknowledged that the plan would require "many compromises" (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 10:37Z). Assessment: Ukraine is signaling openness to compromise, but anchoring the discussion to the principle of a sustainable, just peace, likely countering the immediate RF maximalist demands.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Adaptive Air and Ground Pressure): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will continue sustained kinetic pressure on critical UAF defensive lines (Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka) using combined artillery and KAB saturation. The immediate operational priority for RF in the next 12 hours will likely be exploiting the Odesa infrastructure weakness with continued UAV strikes, aiming to disrupt logistical repair efforts and fuel potential internal instability.

MDCOA (Diplomatic Isolation & Tactical Breach): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF Information Operations (IO) will heavily amplify their maximalist demands (Crimea/NATO) while characterizing the UAF/US peace plan efforts as non-serious or unrealistic, attempting to diplomatically isolate Kyiv. Concurrently, a focused mechanized thrust will be launched in the Zaporizhzhia region (Varvarovka/Huliaipole area) in an attempt to achieve a verifiable operational breakthrough that undermines UAF negotiating leverage.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements