Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - OPERATIONAL UPDATE

TIME: 110630Z DEC 25

REFERENCE: SITREP 110545Z DEC 25; Daily Intelligence Summary 101501Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture remains dominated by two concurrent UAF retrograde maneuvers: the Dimitrov emergency exfiltration (Pokrovsk Axis, East) and Plan PHOENIX (Stepnohorsk Axis, South).

• Pokrovsk Axis: RF pressure is peaking as the 110800Z deadline for the Dimitrov exfiltration approaches. All available UAF maneuver units are tasked with fire suppression to secure the egress corridors.
• Southern Front (Stepnohorsk/Huliaipole): RF forces are demonstrating increased technological integration, specifically showcasing the use of Ground Robotic Systems (NRTK) in the Huliaipole area, intended to suppress UAF maneuver and fire support near the planned Phase Two start of Plan PHOENIX.
• Deep Rear Area: Confirmed repeat kinetic strikes on energy facilities in the Kremenchuk district, Poltava Oblast (05:58Z), signaling RF intent to capitalize on established AD vulnerabilities and force strategic dilution of UAF mobile air defense assets.
• Immediate Threat Track: An adversary UAV was tracked inbound from Northern Donetsk towards Dnipropetrovsk region (06:01Z), confirming immediate threat vectors against key logistical hubs supporting Plan PHOENIX.

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Geomagnetic Storm (GMS) effects persist, degrading unassisted GPS navigation for FPV and larger UAS platforms. UAF counter-UAS (C-UAS) teams must prioritize non-GPS assisted RF platforms (e.g., NRTK C2 links).

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are under severe pressure to meet maneuver deadlines while managing AD constraints. The Bila Tserkva BDA gap and the repeat Kremenchuk attack have critically amplified the difficulty of allocating SHORAD assets to the Southern corridor perimeter (Shyriaieve/Ivanivka).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): RF intends to force a catastrophic failure of the UAF retrograde (Plan PHOENIX) by exploiting the vulnerability of logistical and C2 nodes (Kremenchuk strike) while increasing tactical lethality on the frontline through technological means (NRTK deployment, confirmed by RF propaganda).

CAPABILITIES:

• NRTK Integration: RF is actively fielding and showcasing NRTK (Ground Robotic Systems) in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Huliaipole). While the tactical impact is currently low, this deployment enhances reconnaissance capabilities and can reduce RF manpower exposure in complex terrain. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• Precision Targeting Persistence: The repeat strike on Kremenchuk demonstrates persistent RF exploitation of intelligence gains (Kuzmuk breach residue) to target high-value, fixed energy infrastructure. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Information Dominance: RF IO capability is highly synchronized and adaptive, immediately producing high-impact, cohesion-fracturing narratives (WSJ/US-EU friction claim) to negate positive diplomatic signals (US budget). (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2 Logistics and Sustainment Status

CRITICAL STATUS UPDATE: The execution window for the counter-strike on the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (NLT 110600Z) has elapsed without BDA confirmation of execution or failure. Analytical Judgment: Assuming non-execution until BDA confirmation is the required posture. This failure significantly increases the likelihood of an RF artillery saturation surge NLT 110800Z, directly threatening holding forces in the East and South. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.3 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF Strategic C2 demonstrates highly effective synchronization between kinetic operations (Kremenchuk) and associated IO campaigns (MVD narrative regarding internal sabotage arrests). This integrated approach minimizes domestic disruption and maximizes the cognitive impact of kinetic successes. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is high but stressed by concurrent maneuver requirements and the lack of AD coverage in the rear. Force Posture is shifting from attrition to maneuver preservation (Plan PHOENIX).

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• US House approval of the 2026 defense budget ($400M) provides a critical diplomatic and resource counter-narrative to RF claims of collapsing Western support. Setbacks:
• Confirmed second kinetic strike on Kremenchuk infrastructure (Poltava region) within a short window, demonstrating the immediate failure of initial AD reallocation plans or the exploitation of command delays.
• The high probability of 260th GRAU strike failure places UAF holding forces under imminent risk of overwhelming artillery fire.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL Constraints:

1. Imminent Fire Imbalance: Due to the probable failure/non-execution of the 260th GRAU strike.
2. AD Asset Fixation: Mobile SHORAD assets are being fixed on defending static rear targets (Kremenchuk) rather than protecting maneuver corridors (Shyriaieve/Ivanivka).
3. Bila Tserkva BDA Gap: Prevents flexible AD management needed to address the above.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is executing a three-pronged strategy:

1. Strategic Friction: Launching the "WSJ/US Restructuring Plan" narrative to fracture US-European cohesion and demoralize UAF troops by implying a pre-agreed outcome involving surrender of sovereignty.
2. Normalization/Long-Term Control: Promoting "GOELRO 2.0" (new power stations in occupied Donbas) and featuring high-profile patriotic events (Solovyov forum) to project stability and permanence of Russian control.
3. Counter-Sabotage Denial: Using the MVD arrest video to label all domestic sabotage attempts (e.g., transformer attacks) as low-level criminal acts linked to online fraud, denying UAF deep penetration capabilities. (Confidence: HIGH)

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The confirmation of significant US financial backing should act as a strong antidote to the diplomatic morale dip noted in the previous report. StratCom must ensure this positive news is immediately amplified to counteract the WSJ disinformation.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The US defense budget approval is an immediate tactical advantage in the Information Domain. Failure to rapidly leverage this confirmation against the "US-EU friction" narrative will allow the RF to achieve a strategic IO victory.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Kinetic Attrition and AD Fixation: RF will continue deep kinetic strikes against Poltava/Kremenchuk energy infrastructure and logistical nodes (Dnipropetrovsk inbound UAV track) to fix and deplete UAF mobile AD assets.
2. Combined Arms on Southern Flank: The RF 29th Army and 37th GMRB will intensify combined attacks on the Vovcha River/Stepnohorsk axis, integrating UAS saturation with NRTK to exploit gaps in UAF C-UAS and suppress the 67th Mech Brigade.
3. Artillery Surge: Assuming non-execution of the 260th GRAU strike, RF fire saturation will increase across the Eastern front NLT 110800Z, coinciding with the Dimitrov pocket liquidation effort. (Confidence: HIGH)

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The imminent RF artillery surge (260th GRAU munitions reaching the front) allows RF forces to rapidly achieve fire superiority in the East, compromising the Dimitrov exfiltration. Simultaneously, the continued AD constraint prevents UAF from adequately defending the Shyriaieve/Ivanivka corridor against RF drone/NRTK saturation, resulting in the operational collapse of Plan PHOENIX flank security and a potentially disordered retreat toward Kryvyi Rih. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMAND PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE FIRE ADJUSTMENT (GRAU CONTINGENCY) AND STRATEGIC AD DEPLOYMENT.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)