Situation Report

SENIOR MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - URGENT OPERATIONAL PRIORITY

TIME: 091800Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: A2/AD DEGRADATION REQUIREMENT // LOGISTICS DECAPITATION IMMINENT // CI DISPERSAL VERIFICATION CRITICAL

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture is now defined by the RF establishment of a dense Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) zone protecting the Stepnohorsk-Huliaipole decisive axis (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).

1. Zaporizhzhia Decisive Axis: RF 37th GMRB is conducting the Main Land Drive (MLD), shielded by the CRITICAL activity level of the 183rd Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (SAR Score 26.43). The 38th GMRB continues its high-velocity flanking maneuver. UAF forces are critically constrained by the denial of Close Air Support (CAS).
2. Donetsk Fixing Axis (Pokrovsk): RF is holding UAF forces in Urban Counter-Infiltration Operations (CIO), utilizing 152mm artillery to reduce fortifications and prevent UAF reserve redeployment.
3. Strategic Rear (CNI/Logistics): The Fastiv rail bypass remains the primary RF deep-strike objective for logistical decapitation, supported by increasing sorties from AB Millerovo (Jet-Powered Shaheds).

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist, favoring RF ISR and deep-strike platforms. The overriding environmental factor remains the structural damage to the Pechenihy Dam (Kharkiv), requiring continuous UAF Engineer asset allocation and mitigating localized flood risk.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF forces are synchronized, successfully utilizing the 183rd AAM shield to advance ground forces while employing hybrid pressure (CI targeting, hydro-weaponization) to force UAF internal reallocation. UAF: Execution of the "RED PLAN" for C2 relocation is confirmed, but deployment of the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve is still degraded by "Mangas" aerial mining along approach routes. Logistical assets (ammunition/fuel caches) known to be compromised are highly vulnerable.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is focused on achieving operational decision in Zaporizhzhia under an impenetrable AD umbrella, while simultaneously crippling UAF sustainment capabilities using compromised intelligence.

• Air Denial Capability (CRITICAL): The 183rd Guards AAM Regiment provides an unprecedented operational advantage, denying UAF aviation access to the main battle zone, effectively creating localized RF air superiority. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Targeting Refinement: RF priority has shifted from kinetic targeting of recently relocated CPs to high-value, fixed logistical nodes (fuel/ammunition caches) whose coordinates were compromised via the Kuzmuk breach. (Confidence: HIGH)
• IO Synchronization: RF is utilizing specific, high-impact disinformation (e.g., "Vovchansk cat-killing" narrative) coordinated with kinetic successes to maximize psychological impact and degrade international support.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The most significant change is the critical spike in 183rd AAM activity (Score 26.43), indicating a massive, theater-level commitment to protect the Stepnohorsk drive. This denies UAF the option of relying on CAS to halt the advance.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF deep-strike assets (KABs, precision missiles, Jet-Powered Shaheds) are prioritized for the decapitation campaign against UAF infrastructure and logistics. RF conventional logistics appear sufficient to sustain the current tempo of the Stepnohorsk offensive.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective and synchronized. The successful integration of CI (Kuzmuk data) into kinetic strike planning demonstrates mature multi-domain capability.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive stability is holding at Pokrovsk, but the Stepnohorsk axis is entering a critical phase due to the A2/AD denial and the speed of the 38th GMRB flanking maneuver. READINESS: General readiness is strained. Operational tempo must be maintained by ground forces without crucial CAS support. CI mitigation is ongoing ("RED PLAN" execution confirmed), but logistical exposure remains acute.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Major Setback: Effective loss of air operational freedom over the Zaporizhzhia decisive axis due to the 183rd AAM surge.
• Mitigation Success: Confirmation of "RED PLAN" protocols initiated and the dismantling of an internal espionage network ("Skorokhod accomplice").

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate capacity for Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD/DEAD) against the 183rd AAM Regiment. CONSTRAINT: Mobile SHORAD assets are critically constrained by the requirement to defend the Fastiv bypass (strategic priority) and protect CNI (Pechenihy). Engineer assets are fragmented across frontline counter-mining operations ("Mangas") and rear-area crisis response (Pechenihy).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Information Operations (IO) are aggressively exploiting the internal security breach, framing the dismissal of the TrO official ("Kuzmuk") as proof of systemic UAF collapse and incompetence. A new, targeted dehumanization narrative ("Vovchansk cat-killing") has been introduced, likely designed to erode international support and military discipline. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public confidence is reliant on visible security measures. Transparency regarding the "RED PLAN" execution and flood mitigation efforts is essential to counter the RF narrative of collapse.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

UAF strategic communication must urgently maintain focus on the Hydro-Terrorism aspect of the Pechenihy strike to prevent RF distraction efforts (e.g., global economic conflict narratives) from succeeding among Western security partners.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 85%) Logistical Decapitation Strike. RF will leverage the A2/AD shield to accelerate the 37th GMRB advance NLT 101200Z DEC. The primary operational output will be a concentrated precision strike package (Kalibr/Iskander/Jet-Powered Shaheds) aimed at Kuzmuk-compromised bulk ammunition and fuel caches. The Fastiv rail bypass will be targeted by deep-strike UAVs originating from AB Millerovo, aiming for sustained interdiction.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Probability 65%) Operational Encirclement & Strategic Paralysis. The "Mangas" aerial mining campaign successfully paralyzes the movement of "BRAVO-BLOCK." The 38th GMRB achieves a rapid, decisive flanking maneuver, encircling forward UAF units at Stepnohorsk NLT 110600Z DEC. Simultaneously, RF launches a secondary high-yield strike against the Pechenihy Dam, triggering catastrophic localized flooding that severs critical Donbas-Kharkiv GLOCs, forcing strategic withdrawal.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. KINETIC OPERATIONS & AIR DEFENSE (J3/J2)

• Action A (SEAD/DEAD Mission - CRITICAL): Authorize and execute a priority SEAD/DEAD mission (utilizing ATACMS, GLSDB, or swarm UAS if available) against the 183rd Guards AAM Regiment (SAR Score 26.43) within the next 6 hours. Degrading this A2/AD shield is the single highest kinetic priority to enable CAS for Stepnohorsk defenders.
• Action B (Counter-Mining Acceleration): Reallocate Engineer/EOD assets from less critical rear security tasks to exclusively focus on rapidly clearing all designated approach routes for "BRAVO-BLOCK" against "Mangas" mines. Utilize EW support for route clearance vanguards.

2. LOGISTICS AND COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE (J4/J2)

• Action A (Logistics Decoy/Abandonment - CRITICAL): Immediate verification must be obtained that all bulk ammunition, fuel, and critical equipment caches listed in the Kuzmuk-era logs have been physically dispersed or, if fixed, designated as decoy targets and abandoned. Assume 100% compromise risk. Do not attempt to salvage high-risk fixed assets.
• Action B (Fastiv SHORAD Audit): Confirm immediate operational readiness and overlapping coverage of the 50% mobile SHORAD assets assigned to the Fastiv logistical bypass corridor against the confirmed threat from Jet-Powered Shaheds (AB Millerovo).

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION (P7)

• Action A (Counter-Dehumanization): Immediately prepare and disseminate counter-narratives and validated footage showcasing UAF compliance with International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and humanitarian support, specifically targeting the RF-generated "Vovchansk cat-killing" narrative to neutralize its corrosive effect domestically and internationally.

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