Nightwatch

SENIOR MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - DECISIVE PHASE UPDATE

TIME: 071435Z DEC 25 (D+0 / H+18.0 UPDATE) SUBJECT: POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) PRESSURE INTENSIFIES // CRITICAL COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE BREACH IN TRo FORCES // EAST-ZAPORIZHZHIA GROUND ACTION CONFIRMED

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture is characterized by simultaneous RF ground pressure on the Donetsk Axis (Pokrovsk) and the East-Zaporizhzhia Axis (Huliaipole/Stepnohorsk), synchronized with a high-intensity RF multi-domain IO campaign.

Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk Direction): Confirmed Russian Ministry of Defence (RF MoD) report of successful 152mm Giatsint-B artillery fire destroying a UAF fortified stronghold in this direction (14:27Z). This confirms that RF is relying on heavy, indirect fire to attrite UAF defenses and prepare for exploitation in the decisive sector. (Confidence: HIGH)
East-Zaporizhzhia Front (Stepnohorsk/Huliaipole): Pro-RF channels (Rybar, 14:28Z) confirm ongoing ground action, claiming RF offensive successes and minimization of UAF counterattacks. This validates the previous MLCOA prediction of the 37th GMRB Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) NLT 2100Z (06 DEC). (Confidence: MEDIUM)
Zaporizhzhia Rear: Mash reports widespread power disruption (14:28Z), attributed to "weather." Given the context of the previous day's successful RF deep strikes and the Dempster-Shafer analysis (Belief: Energy Supply Disruption), this outage is likely a result of kinetic action rather than environmental factors. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear conditions persist, continuing to favor RF ISR and deep strike platforms (KABs/UAVs). The reported infrastructure damage in Zaporizhzhia (power outage) is significant, regardless of the cause, and degrades C2 resilience in the rear.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF is utilizing concentrated artillery fire in the Donetsk sector to fix UAF units, while active ground forces attempt to exploit the logistical vulnerabilities created by the Fastiv rail strike and the air defense void in the Zaporizhzhia region. UAF: UAF C2 is actively responding to internal security threats (Kuzmuk dismissal, anti-corruption arrests) while managing high-tempo defensive operations. The immediate priority is maintaining logistical throughput and tactical security in the TDF structure.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains to achieve a strategic breakthrough along the Donetsk Axis while simultaneously creating cognitive friction within the UAF National Command Authority (NCA) and weakening international support.

Kinetic Capability (Artillery): The confirmed use of 152mm Giatsint-B in the Krasnoarmeysk direction demonstrates RF intent to use heavy, non-precision fires to destroy fixed UAF defenses rather than relying solely on lighter, more maneuverable forces. (Confidence: HIGH)
IO Capability (Psychological Warfare/Dehumanization): RF narratives are escalating, employing extreme claims (UAF "killing cats" in Vovchansk, 14:22Z) designed to dehumanize UAF personnel and solidify hard-line domestic support for RF operations. (Confidence: HIGH)
Information Operations (Exploitation of Internal Security): RF IO is primed to immediately exploit the high-profile dismissal of Oleksandr Kuzmuk (TrO Forces) to sow distrust, confusion, and narratives of internal collapse within UAF military structures. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed ground success narratives on the East-Zaporizhzhia front suggest the RF has successfully initiated and sustained the MLD, leveraging the temporary air defense void (loss of Buk-M3) and the logistical constraints (Fastiv strike). This shifts the immediate kinetic threat focus away from Pokrovsk solely, confirming the twin-axis strategy.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF operational capacity remains focused on maintaining high-volume indirect fire delivery (evidenced by Giatsint-B footage). RF propaganda attempts to normalize domestic life (Moscow Metro news, 14:20Z) to mask ongoing force generation issues and economic strain.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 shows a high degree of synchronization between kinetic action (artillery in Donetsk, ground forces in Zaporizhzhia) and the information domain (immediate creation of IO narratives corresponding to strategic objectives: EU division, UAF internal decay).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: UAF is engaged in active defense. A significant portion of C2 bandwidth is now dedicated to addressing internal security matters (Kuzmuk dismissal, Skorokhod arrest) which distracts from kinetic planning. READINESS: Tactical readiness is confirmed in active defensive areas. Strategic readiness requires immediate stabilization regarding the TrO Forces leadership structure due to the personnel change.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SETBACK (CRITICAL SECURITY BREACH): The high-profile dismissal of Oleksandr Kuzmuk (14:24Z) from a sensitive position within TrO forces, coupled with high belief scores for Espionage Activity (0.1343) and Conspiracy Theory: Hidden Agenda of TDF Command Structure (0.0102), represents a critical counter-intelligence failure. The extent of operational data compromised must be assessed immediately.
SUCCESS (Internal Security/Anti-Corruption): The arrest of the Skorokhod accomplice (14:25Z) demonstrates UAF state capacity and commitment to internal accountability, which provides a positive counter-narrative to RF claims of systemic corruption.
SUCCESS (StratCom/Resilience): The opening of a safe educational space in Zaporizhzhia (14:24Z) directly counters RF psychological operations targeting civilian morale and resilience.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Information Security Vulnerability. The Kuzmuk incident introduces a severe risk of compromise regarding TDF operational plans, troop locations, and materiel sourcing. REQUIREMENT: Immediate deployment of Counter-Intelligence (CI) teams to conduct damage assessment and implement COMSEC/OPSEC reviews within the TrO command structure.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO channels are pursuing a three-pronged psychological attack:

Western Disunity: Amplification of Medvedev’s claims of US/EU contradictions (14:04Z), timed to coincide with ongoing Western aid debates.
War Profiteering: Rybar's narrative alleging European leaders prolong the war for financial gain (14:09Z), intended to erode European public support for military aid.
Dehumanization/Atrocity: Vovchansk "cat-killing" narrative (14:22Z), a classic IO technique used to vilify opposing forces.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is being reinforced by successful anti-corruption action and administrative resilience in the face of RF kinetic strikes. However, the dismissal of a high-profile figure like Kuzmuk, especially when amplified by aggressive Ukrainian channels (CyberBoroshno), poses a risk of internal distrust and speculation regarding command integrity.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The primary RF IO objective is diplomatic paralysis, achieved by fueling internal European friction and creating distractions (Venezuela/Trump link, 14:09Z). NCA must ensure partners see the synchronized nature of the kinetic and cognitive attacks.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 80%) Kinetic Escalation and Security Exploitation. RF leverages successful tactical advances on the East-Zaporizhzhia front (Huliaipole/Stepnohorsk MLD confirmed ongoing) to force UAF to commit reserves there. Simultaneously, RF deep strike continues KAB/UAV attacks on Northern and Central axes to prevent reinforcement to both the Donetsk (Pokrovsk) and Zaporizhzhia fronts. RF IO will aggressively exploit the Kuzmuk security incident to amplify internal friction and deter international partners.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 75%) Operational Decapitation via Intelligence Leak. RF, having gained critical operational data via the Kuzmuk breach (if confirmed as espionage), executes a precise, coordinated deep strike targeting key UAF C2 nodes, including forward TrO command posts and reserve concentrations identified via compromised SIGINT/HUMINT. This strike is timed to coincide with a major breakthrough by the 38th GMRB on the Huliaipole flank, leading to the rapid encirclement of defending UAF forces NLT 080600Z DEC.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

| Priority | Gap Description | Collection Requirement (CR) | Confidence Assessment | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | PRIORITY 1 (COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE): | Full scope of Oleksandr Kuzmuk's access and the duration of any security breach within TrO C2 networks. | CI/HUMINT: Immediate debriefing of related personnel; comprehensive forensic analysis of associated digital assets and C2 network access logs. | LOW (Critical) | | PRIORITY 2 (EAST-ZAPORIZHZHIA BDA): | Precise location and commitment of the 38th GMRB armor/motorized assets on the Huliaipole flank, validating Rybar's claims of RF success. | IMINT/ISR: Continuous tactical UAV coverage over the P-85 and R. Haichur bridge sectors to confirm column movement and bridge status. | MEDIUM | | PRIORITY 3 (RF DEHUMANIZATION TARGETING): | Determine the target audience and specific operational effect of the Vovchansk "cat-killing" IO narrative. | OSINT/PSYOP Analysis: Monitor deep web and Russian domestic social media forums for propagation, measure sentiment impact and required UAF counter-messaging. | MEDIUM |

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6)

Action A (Immediate East-Zaporizhzhia Containment): Confirm the execution of the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve movement (per previous report) and ensure MCLC/EW assets are leading the vanguard to neutralize "Mangas" aerial mining. The RF is pressing this breach now.
Action B (Pokrovsk Fires): Maximize counter-battery fire missions (CBFM) against all confirmed 152mm positions (e.g., Giatsint-B) in the Krasnoarmeysk direction to degrade RF fire superiority before they attempt the main frontal assault.
Action C (Air Defense Prioritization): Re-allocate short-range Air Defense (SHORAD) from less active central districts to protect the Fastiv Bypass Rail Route (Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro), ensuring logistical integrity against expected RF deep strikes targeting rail infrastructure.

2. COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY (J2/CI)

Action A (Damage Control - CRITICAL): Immediately declare a need-to-know, OPSEC-restricted posture across all Territorial Defense C2 nodes nationwide. Institute an immediate full review of all TrO operational plans, troop movements, and critical infrastructure defense maps potentially accessed by Kuzmuk or his network. Assume compromise until proven otherwise.
Action B (Personnel Security): Temporarily suspend network access for all non-essential personnel linked to the dismissed official until the CI assessment (CR P1) is complete.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND DIPLOMACY (P7/G2)

Action A (Counter-Espionage IO): StratCom must immediately leverage the success of the Skorokhod accomplice arrest (14:25Z) to frame the Kuzmuk dismissal as evidence of internal UAF resilience and successful counter-intelligence, proactively neutralizing the anticipated RF IO exploitation of the security breach.
Action B (Counter-Dehumanization): Task PSYOP teams to develop a rapid counter-narrative to the Vovchansk "cat-killing" claim (14:22Z), emphasizing UAF adherence to the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC) and contrasting it with confirmed RF atrocities.
Action C (Diplomatic Cohesion): Prepare messaging for NATO allies confirming that internal Ukrainian political friction (Myrotvorets/Corruption cases) is being actively weaponized by the RF to distract from the decisive kinetic operations at Pokrovsk and Stepnohorsk.

//END OF REPORT//

Situation Report