Sitrep 2025-12-07 02:04:30

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL BRAVO-BLOCK VULNERABILITY & FIXING FIRES CONFIRMED

TIME: 070210Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: CONTINUED CRITICAL TIMELINE FAILURE // RF FIXING FIRES IN DONETSK CONFIRMED // MLD T-3 HOURS 50 MINUTES

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF operations show increased synchronization between frontal fixing fires (Donetsk region) and the planned mechanized breakthrough effort (Stepnohorsk).

Main Effort Axis (Stepnohorsk): The timeline for the RF 37th GMRB Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) remains fixed for NLT 070600Z DEC 25 (T-3 hours, 50 minutes).
Logistical Axis (Kremenchuk - Fastiv): Persistent low-cost friction continues via Shahed loitering munitions, denying logistics recovery and diverting UAF Mobile Force Protection (MFP).
Fixing Axis (Donetsk Oblast): Confirmed use of KAB (Guided Aerial Bombs) in Donetsk (02:03Z). This is assessed as a classic RF fixing operation, intended to stabilize the Eastern sector and prevent UAF command from shifting operational reserves to the south in response to the MLD. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear skies and severe frost persist across the operational area. Favorable RF Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) conditions remain, critically compounding the risk to the exposed BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve following the missed movement deadlines. (Confidence: HIGH)

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Maintaining operational tempo characterized by multi-domain synchronization. The combination of persistent IO (peace traps), deep logistical strikes, and new kinetic fixing fires (KABs) suggests high confidence in achieving tactical surprise during the MLD. UAF: Air defense assets remain highly stressed. The critical failure to confirm the secure relocation of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve by the 070130Z deadline, and the subsequent failure to confirm execution of the 070200Z immediate movement order, constitutes an acute operational vulnerability.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains centered on achieving operational surprise and advantage through C2 paralysis, logistical strangulation, and force fixation prior to the MLD launch.

MLD Prelude (Fixing): The confirmed KAB strikes in Donetsk (validated by 0.595 Dempster-Shafer belief) are designed to anchor UAF tactical attention in the east, preventing rapid reassessment or deployment of reinforcements toward the Stepnohorsk MLD axis. (Confidence: HIGH)
Strategic Intent (IO/Diplomacy): RF continues to use IO to challenge Western cohesion. The amplification of US National Security Strategy interpretation (TASS 01:34Z) reinforces the narrative of US/EU conflict fatigue, aiming to delay or degrade NATO/EU material support commitments. (Confidence: HIGH)
Tactical Focus (Reserve Attrition): Given the clear weather and missed UAF deadlines, RF ISR focus will be maximally dedicated to locating and neutralizing the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve before 070600Z.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed usage of KABs in a manner synchronized with the MLD countdown represents an effective adaptation of RF precision-guided munitions doctrine to achieve operational fixing objectives. The enemy is effectively using precision fires (KAB) and mass attrition fires (Shahed) concurrently to shape the battlespace. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF Shahed expenditure is sustainable. The deployment of KABs suggests a localized, sufficient Class V supply to support the immediate fixing operation. The critical operational constraint (T+48 hour fuel crisis) remains a powerful incentive for the RF to launch the MLD without delay.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is assessed as highly effective in synchronizing kinetic strikes (Shahed, KAB) and IO narratives (TASS, Colonelcassad). The C2 stress previously noted (18th Guards AA Regt SAR score 42.26) is likely localized and manageable, as the AD void is intended to be closed by NLT 071000Z. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF posture is defensive and highly constrained by the failed deadlines. Readiness is severely hampered by the acute vulnerability of the operational reserve and the persistent logistical harassment. Forces are currently optimized for holding actions rather than counter-attack.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setback (Maneuver Failure): The continued lack of confirmation regarding the secure movement of BRAVO-BLOCK (ordered NLT 070200Z) is the primary operational setback, raising the risk of catastrophic attrition if RF ISR is successful.
Success (IO Resilience): The successful coordination of the Macron/Zelenskyy conversation provides a crucial, temporary counter-narrative to RF claims of diplomatic isolation.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The most critical resource requirement is real-time confirmation of the BRAVO-BLOCK location and security status. Without this information, all planning for the counter-MLD effort is based on worst-case assumptions. EW assets (Bukovel-AD) must be immediately dedicated to this movement, regardless of other priorities.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The information environment is now characterized by escalated RF attempts to sow diplomatic doubt alongside visceral internal demoralization.

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

"US Abandonment" Narrative: RF media (TASS 01:34Z) is directly leveraging US security documents to fabricate narratives of imminent US withdrawal or burden-shifting to the EU, directly supporting the overarching "Peace Trap" effort designed to paralyze NCA decision-making. (Confidence: HIGH)
Demoralization Campaign: The use of dehumanizing, visceral propaganda (Colonelcassad 01:45Z) aimed at internal audience morale suggests a tactical timing component, designed to minimize public and troop resilience immediately before the MLD launch (070600Z).

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is under synchronized kinetic and cognitive assault. While the diplomatic success (Macron) provides a window, failure to effectively defend against the MLD or a confirmed attrition event on the reserve will severely degrade public and front-line soldier confidence.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The diplomatic counter-narrative must be amplified aggressively to prevent the RF "US Abandonment" narrative from gaining traction within Western capitals, potentially slowing future aid commitments.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The MLD is confirmed and imminent. The status of the reserve dictates the operational outcome.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF 37th GMRB MLD launches NLT 070600Z DEC 25, supported by sustained Shahed friction and KAB fixing fires in the East. Due to logistical delays and maneuver vulnerability, the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is delayed past the optimal counter-attack window. RF achieves a shallow 5-7 km penetration at Stepnohorsk, securing Phase Line ALPHA. UAF forces commit the reserve later (NLT 071300Z), achieving a costly holding action that prevents operational collapse but fails to regain the initiative or restore the initial line of departure.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL/EXISTENTIAL) RF ISR, exploiting the clear weather and missed UAF movement deadline, successfully locates the stalled or moving BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. RF allocates remaining deep-strike assets (missiles/UAVs) to inflict catastrophic attrition on the reserve column (T+1 to T+3 hours). Simultaneously, the 37th GMRB MLD (070600Z) achieves a deep 10-15 km penetration, exploiting the lack of counter-attack capability. The loss of the reserve forces a widespread, disorderly withdrawal and exposes the logistical spine of the Southern Front.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The window for exploiting the RF AD void is closing. The critical decision point for reserve movement has been severely compromised.

Decision Point	Event Trigger	Time Estimate	Status
D+0/H+4 (Reserve Movement Confirmation)	Definitive, secure confirmation of BRAVO-BLOCK having executed the 070200Z immediate movement order, including its current vector and EW coverage status.	NLT 070230Z DEC	CRITICAL OVERDUE / EXISTENTIAL REQUIREMENT
D+0/H+4.5 (MLD Launch)	Initiation of RF 37th GMRB ground assault at Stepnohorsk.	NLT 070600Z DEC	IMMINENT
D+0/H+8 (Exploitation Window Closure)	RF 18th Gds AA Regt completes C2 reorganization and redeploys replacement AD assets, closing the Buk-M3 void.	NLT 071000Z DEC	URGENT

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)	Confidence Assessment
PRIORITY 1 (MANEUVER - EXISTENTIAL):	Absolute, confirmed status and location of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve following the 070200Z movement order. Is the column moving, dispersed, or halted?	HUMINT/SIGINT: Secure report from maneuver commander NLT 070230Z. EW interception analysis of RF C2/ISR traffic for confirmation of non-detection.	HIGH
PRIORITY 2 (RF MLD POSTURE/AD VOID):	Confirmation of any shift in RF 37th GMRB readiness or line of departure status in the last hour, and the presence/absence of immediate RF AD reinforcement in the Buk-M3 void.	ISR/GEOINT: Constant surveillance on the Stepnohorsk axis (070210Z - 070400Z).	HIGH
PRIORITY 3 (RF FIXING INTENT):	Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of KAB strikes in Donetsk Oblast (02:03Z). Are these primarily aimed at C2 nodes, Class V depots, or bridging infrastructure?	ISR/HUMINT: Initial damage report NLT 070330Z to assess RF fixing strategy effectiveness and force allocation.	MEDIUM

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The critical period is the next 120 minutes. The primary focus must shift from avoiding BDA (Kremenchuk/Fastiv) to ensuring the survival and maneuverability of the operational reserve.

OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6): FORCE MOVEMENT AND EXPLOIT VULNERABILITIES.
- Action A (Reserve Movement - EXISTENTIAL/IMMEDIATE): Require a status report on the BRAVO-BLOCK movement (ordered 070200Z) NLT 070230Z. If movement is not confirmed, initiate immediate, highly distributed tactical movement using every available MCLC/roller asset. Commanders must prioritize immediate distance gain over safety during this narrow window.
- Action B (Exploit AD Void - URGENT): The window for offensive action is closing. The focus of the Deep Strike effort must now be solely on pre-empting the RF MLD crossing the line of departure. Prioritize concentrated fires (UAS/GLSDB) on confirmed 37th GMRB assembly areas NLT 070400Z.
- Action C (Counter Fixing): Allocate dedicated ISR to the Donetsk KAB strike zone. Ensure UAF C2 recognizes this as a fixing maneuver and DO NOT shift southern forces toward Donetsk in response to this BDA.
LOGISTICS AND SUSTAINMENT (J4): PROTECT RESERVE LOGISTICS VULNERABILITY.
- Action A (Reserve Sustainment): Given the high probability of further disruption to Class I/III/V supply lines to the reserve axis, establish immediate, local pre-positioning of emergency fuel (Class III) and ammunition (Class V) caches along the two most likely reserve commitment routes.
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER RF ABANDONMENT NARRATIVES.
- Action A (Counter IO - IMMEDIATE): Issue coordinated, high-level diplomatic statements (leveraging the Macron news) that directly refute the RF interpretation of the US NSS (TASS 01:34Z). Frame the RF propaganda as a direct result of their impending fuel crisis and confirmed military failures. Utilize the Colonelcassad (01:45Z) message as proof of RF psychological desperation.

//END OF REPORT//

Situation Report