Sitrep 2025-12-04 18:34:31

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/012

TIME: 041900Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD IN PROGRESS. MULTI-AXIS SHAPING OPERATIONS. CRITICAL DIPLOMATIC FRICTION (TURKEY). PRIORITY: CRITICAL - RESERVE DEPLOYMENT IMMINENT

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational tempo remains maximal, centered on the Stepnohorsk Sector (Zaporizhzhia Axis). RF shaping operations are confirmed across multiple operational sectors, demanding UAF resource dispersal.

Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohorsk): Operational focus remains VDV/37th GMRB penetration. Previous deep reconnaissance (Mezhova/Shakhtarske) suggests continued targeting of the OG Dnipro C2 node. (FACT/JUDGMENT: Confirmed MLD initiation, previous report 041845Z).
Northern Axes (Kupyansk/Sumy/Chernihiv):
- Confirmed high-volume MLRS (Uragan) strikes in the Kupyansk Direction (FACT: 041803Z).
- Confirmed deep UAB activity near Chernihiv, requiring commitment of Northern Air Defense assets (FACT: 041822Z).
- RF milblogger claims of VDV destruction and advance near Sumy are assessed as highly exaggerated IO, but indicate intent to fix UAF 1st Echelon forces in the North.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Night operations continue. Low visibility and persistent Geomagnetic Storm (GMS) conditions favor RF tactical elements relying on Starlink and thermal optics, while degrading UAF GPS-guided weapon systems and ISR effectiveness.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The UAF reserve force ("BRAVO-BLOCK") remains the critical asset, pending immediate commitment based on Stepnohorsk penetration depth (P0 Gap) and the confirmed vector of the 38th GMRB (P1 Gap). Air Defense focus is shifting to address confirmed deep UAB incursions into Chernihiv Oblast simultaneous with the MLD threat.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intention: RF aims to achieve a decisive breakthrough at Stepnohorsk while utilizing broad, synchronized shaping operations (kinetic and IO) to disrupt UAF C2 and logistical capacity. The introduction of North Korean personnel (P2 Gap, previous report) and internal logistics friction are secondary, long-term factors.

Capabilities:

IO/C2: RF C2 is leveraging high-level IO (Putin interviews) to project strategic confidence and normalize the conflict internationally (India Today interview, 041805Z-1827Z). Putin confirmed satisfaction with the quality of RF Intelligence (041827Z), implying confidence in targeting and assessment capabilities necessary for the MDCOA. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
Internal Security Risk: The reported arrests of teenagers in Yekaterinburg for railway sabotage (041832Z) confirm that internal sabotage targeting RF logistics infrastructure remains a persistent threat and vulnerability, albeit distant from the current frontline.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The simultaneous intensification of kinetic activity in the North (Kupyansk MLRS, Chernihiv UAB) suggests a coordinated, multi-domain fixation strategy. RF is seeking to maximize UAF C2 workload and resource allocation ambiguity precisely when the decisive action (MLD) is underway in Zaporizhzhia.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are sustained for the initial MLD phase (GRAU Arsenal Score 26.12). However, reliance on non-state sources for drone procurement remains evident (041816Z fundraising), confirming a persistent gap in state-level provision for key tactical assets.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is leveraging commercial SATCOM (Starlink) tactically (previous report). Strategically, the ability to coordinate simultaneous deep strikes (Chernihiv) with the Stepnohorsk MLD, while maintaining a high-volume IO narrative, indicates a robust, if centralized, command structure.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are positioned defensively but require immediate and decisive reserve commitment. Air Defense is currently tasked on multiple fronts (Zaporizhzhia deep reconnaissance, Chernihiv UABs).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

The successful defense of Dobropillya (denying the 38th GMRB flank breakout) remains the critical success factor. No immediate kinetic successes were confirmed in the new reporting cycle, which is dominated by defensive maneuver and holding actions.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Logistical constraints continue to be highlighted at the tactical level, with ongoing public appeals for essential items such as vehicles for frontline movement (FACT: 041826Z). This persistent need for basic mobility assets affects the speed and sustainment of the UAF counter-penetration effort.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The IE is characterized by a high-intensity RF strategic narrative aimed at deflecting international attention from the MLD kinetic phase and creating diplomatic friction.

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
RF Strategic Narrative	Putin promotes narratives of Western responsibility, non-imperial ambitions, and calls for Kyiv negotiations (041805Z-1827Z).	HIGH	Aims to reduce international political pressure and legitimize RF intelligence operations (Putin praised intel).
Diplomatic Friction (Turkey)	Turkey summons UAF diplomats regarding attacks on RF tankers (041806Z).	HIGH	CRITICAL OPERATIONAL IMPACT. Signals Turkish concern over Black Sea instability. May lead to constraints on UAF USV/drone use in the Black Sea, which is vital for targeting RF logistics.
RF IO Targeting Youth	Putin stated authorities must work with Telegram/messengers to influence youth (041814Z).	HIGH	Confirms a long-term RF strategy to exploit cognitive vulnerabilities among younger demographics and prepare for protracted conflict.
UAF Domestic Need	Public fundraising appeals continue for essential military hardware (vehicles, general funds) (041826Z).	HIGH	Projects an image of resilience but underscores reliance on non-governmental funding, potentially signaling logistical weakness to the enemy.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

COA: MLD Consolidation and Multi-Axis Fixation. (Confidence: HIGH) RF VDV elements at Stepnohorsk will consolidate gains using heavy fires and robotic/mechanized assault waves ("Kuryer" UGV). Simultaneously, RF will utilize intensified fixation and shaping operations in the North (Kupyansk, Sumy, Chernihiv deep strikes) to drain UAF Air Defense and prevent the organized, timely deployment of the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Operational Gap Exploitation and Deep C2 Decapitation. (Confidence: HIGH) The 38th GMRB successfully exploits the P1 Gap (NW Bypass of Dobropillya). Concurrently, the confirmed UAV activity near Dnipropetrovsk culminates in a successful deep kinetic strike (Missile/Loitering Munition) on a critical UAF C2 node (e.g., OG Dnipro HQ), capitalizing on the dispersal of Air Defense assets to address Chernihiv/Northern threats.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Change (Since 1845Z)
Reserve Commitment (BRAVO-BLOCK)	EXECUTE NLT 041850Z DEC (Previous recommendation remains)	COMMIT. Delay past 1900Z risks optimal counter-penetration window closure.	CRITICAL PRIORITY
38th GMRB Vector Confirmation	NLT 042000Z DEC	RECON/HUMINT CONFIRMATION. Required for optimal 30% reserve deployment.	CRITICAL PRIORITY
Mitigate Turkey Diplomatic Friction	NLT 050000Z DEC	STRATCOM/J7 ACTION. Prepare rapid diplomatic response to Turkey to stabilize Black Sea operations.	NEW CRITICAL PRIORITY

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P0 (CRITICAL)	STEPNOHORSK PENETRATION DEPTH/VDV EXPLOITATION VECTOR. Specific VDV routes and the effectiveness of UAF counter-mobility/fire missions.	ISR (IR/EO/SAR) Tasking. Direct all available high-end ISR (BPLA, fixed wing) to Stepnohorsk/Prymorske focus area (NLT 1930Z).	CRITICAL for accurate reserve vectoring.
P1 (CRITICAL)	Current tactical vector of the 38th GMRB. (Consolidation or NW Bypass attempt).	Tasking HUMINT/Counter-recon patrols NW of Dobropillya. Confirm if NW access points are mined/blocked.	HIGH on mitigating MDCOA flank.
P2 (NEW - CRITICAL)	North Korean Personnel Deployment Status and Location. Have they moved from training areas to staging grounds?	IMMEDIATE HUMINT/SIGINT Exploitation of captured Belarusian. Re-tasking SIGINT focus to known RF staging areas for unusual C2 profiles.	CRITICAL on future strategic threat assessment.
P4 (DIPLOMATIC/MARITIME)	Turkey’s specific red lines regarding Black Sea naval drone operations. Required to prevent future diplomatic censure or escalation.	J7/MFA Tasking. Immediate high-level diplomatic engagement with Ankara to understand constraints on UAF maritime security actions.	HIGH on preserving Black Sea operational freedom.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: MAINTAIN URGENCY ON SPLIT RESERVE COMMITMENT.

Reserve Commitment: EXECUTE PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" IMMEDIATELY. Proceed with the split deployment: 70% Stepnohorsk counter-penetration, 30% establishing Phase Line DELTA blocking positions NW of Dobropillya. Delay is now unacceptable, prioritizing the need to block the flank (MDCOA) while addressing the main penetration (MLCOA).
Air Defense Prioritization: Maintain strong SAM coverage over OG Dnipro C2 nodes. However, due to the confirmed Chernihiv drone incursion, reinforce AD assets protecting critical infrastructure in the Northern/Central regions (Chernihiv/Kyiv) using MANPADS or mobile AD systems.

7.2. Intelligence Exploitation (J2)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE FOCUS ON C2 AND ROBOTIC THREATS.

Target Hardening: Based on Putin's explicit praise for Russian Intelligence, assume all forward UAF C2 nodes are currently targeted (MDCOA). Increase protective measures (camouflage, relocation, decoys) immediately at high-value C2 sites (OG Dnipro/Huliaipole).
UGV Counter-Measures: Reiterate UGV counter-doctrine (HMG/AGL focus). Provide forward units with specialized EW counter-measures (e.g., commercial drone guns) capable of disrupting "Kuryer" UGV control links (P2 Tech Gap from previous report).

7.3. Strategic Communications and Diplomacy (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: STABILIZE MARITIME RELATIONS.

Turkey Diplomatic Damage Control: Initiate immediate, high-level diplomatic channels with Ankara (via MoD/MFA) to provide full transparency on Black Sea USV operations, focusing solely on military targets and avoiding commercial shipping lanes. Frame the attacks as essential defensive actions against military supply chains supporting the MLD.
Exploit RF Internal Friction: Continue Information Operations targeting RF domestic audiences by highlighting the dichotomy between Putin's IO projection of strength and the reality of RF citizens fundraising for basic military drones and internal unrest (Yekaterinburg sabotage).

Situation Report