Sitrep 2025-12-04 15:00:24

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/004

TIME: 041600Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: Enhanced KAB Strikes Confirm Impending Stepnohorsk MLD; Critical Need for Immediate UGV Counter-Doctrine Implementation and Reserve Commitment to Phase Line BRAVO. PRIORITY: CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational focus remains the Zaporizhzhia Front, characterized by active Russian preparatory fires indicating the imminent execution of the Main Land Drive (MLD).

Zaporizhzhia Axis (Critical): Confirmed high-volume deployment of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv sectors (041555Z). This confirms the kinetic preparation phase for the 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk is now active, significantly reducing the pre-attack warning window.
Phase Line BRAVO: UAF reserves are critically required to stabilize the flank threatened by the 38th GMRB exploitation from Chervone.
Northern Fixation AO (Chernihiv): Internal RF Telegram chatter (041446Z) reinforces the assessment that the initial high-volume threat referencing Chernihiv/Repky was deception. RF grouping commanders were reportedly surprised by the military bloggers' claims of an advance, confirming the intent was to fix UAF northern reserves rather than launch a major kinetic operation. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The Geomagnetic Storm remains active. While GPS/C2 disruptions continue to pose a risk, the low-signature nature of the confirmed "Kuryer" UGV and its likely redundancy via RF local RF/LOS control links means the storm's deterrent effect on the Stepnohorsk MLD is assessed as minimal.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are sustaining defense along Phase Line BRAVO against the 38th GMRB (Chervone exploitation) while preparing for the 37th GMRB mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk. The confirmation of KAB preparation means Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK" (Reserve Commitment) must be executed immediately.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intention (Operational): RF intentions remain consistent: synchronize the 38th GMRB flanking pressure (Chervone) with the UGV-enabled breakthrough (37th GMRB at Stepnohorsk). The currently active KAB barrage serves to suppress UAF command and control and degrade defensive positions prior to H-Hour.

Capability (UGV Threat): The confirmed integration of the "Kuryer" UGV within VDV assault echelons minimizes RF personnel exposure during minefield breaching and urban/fortified combat. The UGVs are assessed to be capable of maintaining momentum even under heavy fire where human infantry would stall. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The most critical change is the confirmation that the RF preparatory phase is complete and the assault sequence (KAB followed by MLD) has been initiated.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Logistical stress from UAF deep strikes against fuel infrastructure persists. The importance of rail interdiction points remains paramount to preventing replenishment of fuel and ammunition required for a sustained breakthrough exploitation.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust, successfully synchronizing strategic IO (Putin/India visit, high-volume anti-Kyiv propaganda) with immediate operational actions (KAB barrage initiation). The speed of this transition confirms the operational readiness of the 37th GMRB.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is high, but the transition from pre-assault preparation to active defense against a synchronized mechanized and robotic assault requires immediate procedural adaptation. Counter-UGV hard-kill doctrine must be disseminated down to the squad level.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Tactical Success: Elements of the 46th Separate Air Assault Brigade (DShV) released footage confirming successful close combat engagements, indicating high morale and effective unit cohesion despite heavy pressure.
Information Success (Diplomatic): The United Kingdom imposed new sanctions against RF intelligence officers (041446Z) explicitly linking Putin to the Novichok attack. This provides further strategic diplomatic leverage against the RF narrative of legitimacy.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The P1 Intelligence Gap regarding the 38th GMRB exploitation vector near Chervone remains the single greatest constraint, forcing a pre-emptive commitment of reserves without 100% certainty of the enemy's flanking axis.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The RF Information Campaign is currently executing a high-volume political pressure phase designed to destabilize Ukrainian governance and fracture international relationships.

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation)	Confidence	Assessment (JUDGMENT)
IO Conflict (US/NATO)	RF military channels are heavily promoting claims that the US is splitting its "peace plan" into 4 parts (041439Z).	HIGH	AIM: To exploit existing US policy friction and create distrust/paranoia among Ukrainian policymakers regarding long-term Western commitment.
IO Conflict (Domestic/Political)	RF channels are leveraging Ukraine's legislative steps (Language Law, Children to NK/DPRK allegations) for aggressive dehumanization and justification of the war (041436Z, 041448Z).	HIGH	AIM: Internal mobilization and external delegitimization of the Ukrainian political system, framing Kyiv as ideologically extreme.
Strategic Comms (RF)	Continuous coverage of the Putin-Modi meeting in India (041456Z) alongside economic success claims (RUB strengthening, UBS report).	HIGH	RF is attempting to anchor its strategic legitimacy outside the West, linking diplomatic stability with domestic economic resilience.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

The commencement of the large-scale KAB preparation confirms the MLD is imminent. The geomagnetic storm is no longer a delaying factor.

COA: Synchronized Breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (IMMEDIATE - H-Hour NLT 042000Z DEC).

Preparation (COMPLETE/ONGOING): Sustained KAB and tube artillery barrage (041600Z - 041900Z) focused on the 37th GMRB breach sector and UAF C2 nodes.
MLD Execution (H-Hour NLT 042000Z DEC): 37th GMRB MLD launches the main assault, leveraging "Kuryer" UGVs to spearhead breaching operations through minefields. The 38th GMRB continues aggressive fixing operations or exploitation attempt through the P1 gap near Chervone, preventing lateral reserve movement.

Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed KAB preparation aligns exactly with pre-MLD sequencing)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Deep Penetration and C2 Paralysis. The 38th GMRB successfully exploits the P1 gap NW of Dobropillya before UAF reserves are committed (Protocol BRAVO-BLOCK delayed). Simultaneously, RF exploits remaining Geomagnetic Storm C2 volatility to mask the use of a precision high-supersonic missile strike (e.g., Kinzhal) on the primary UAF operational headquarters responsible for the Southern Sector (J3/C2 node), resulting in defensive fragmentation during the mechanized push.

Confidence: MEDIUM (Requires successful P1 gap exploitation, which is pending reserve commitment)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point
KAB Transition to MLD	NLT 041900Z DEC	Initiate final alert and full manning of all forward anti-armor and counter-UAS positions at Stepnohorsk.
Stepnohorsk MLD/UGV Launch	NLT 042000Z DEC	IMMEDIATE EXECUTION of Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK" (Commitment of Primary Reserve to Phase Line BRAVO).
UGV Counter-Defense	IMMEDIATE (NLT 041700Z DEC)	Disseminate anti-UGV hard-kill doctrine (focus on HMG/AGL) to frontline units at Stepnohorsk sector.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P1 (CRITICAL)	Current tactical status and exploitation vector of the 38th GMRB near Chervone (Are they advancing along an unexpected axis, or degraded?). (UNCHANGED)	IMMEDIATE ISR TASKING (High-resolution EO/IR/SAR) covering Phase Line BRAVO and potential bypass routes NW of Dobropillya and Chervone.	HIGH on MDCOA viability
P2 (KINETIC/EW)	Detailed C2 structure and EW resilience of the UGV "Kuryer" (control frequencies, operational range, jamming vulnerability).	SIGINT/ELINT focused on 37th GMRB staging ground (Zelyony Gai). Use captured RF UGV debris/documentation to create C2 jamming profile.	HIGH on UGV countermeasure effectiveness
P3 (TARGETING)	Confirmation of critical rail logistics nodes (e.g., specific rail-tanker staging yards) currently being used to supplement Tambov/Voronezh losses.	IMINT/HUMINT tracking of rolling stock movement patterns via Rostov/Crimea routes.	MEDIUM on deep strike effectiveness

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE EXECUTION OF PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" (NLT 041700Z DEC).

Reserve Commitment: Given the confirmed start of KAB preparation, delay on reserve commitment to Phase Line BRAVO is no longer tenable. Immediately commit the designated operational reserve to establish blocking positions NW of Huliaipole to contain the P1 threat posed by the 38th GMRB.
Counter-UGV Doctrine (J3/J7): Disseminate revised Counter-UGV Hard-Kill Doctrine immediately. Prioritize the use of high-rate-of-fire weapons (HMG, AGL, and specialized anti-drone kinetic systems) over traditional anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) for neutralizing small, low-signature robotic platforms.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J3/J2)

ACTION: CAPITALIZE ON AIR DEFENSE DEGRADATION.

Deep Strike Tempo (South): Utilize the remaining window of degraded Russian AD coverage (Kacha airfield damage) to increase the strike tempo against high-value logistics and C2 targets in Crimea and the Southern Front deep rear. Prioritize targets related to the 37th GMRB's fuel resupply pipeline.
Target KAB Launch Platforms: Immediately adjust counter-battery and long-range fire missions to target suspected RF KAB launch aircraft operating zones over the Sea of Azov/Crimean peninsula, forcing them further East and decreasing KAB accuracy/volume.

7.3. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (STRATCOM/NCA)

ACTION: AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-IO CAMPAIGN (NLT 041630Z DEC).

Patriot Counter-Narrative: Immediately launch a strategic communication campaign led by a high-level official, focusing on the $500M Patriot aid package and the new UK sanctions. Frame these as proof of unbreakable Western resolve and RF failure to isolate Ukraine diplomatically.
Deny US Peace Plan Rumors: Utilize official channels to directly deny and dismiss the RF propaganda claims regarding the US "splitting the peace plan," reframing it as a desperate attempt by Moscow to sow confusion before its anticipated ground offensive.

Situation Report