Sitrep 2025-12-04 13:04:35

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP)

TIME: 041400Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: Operational Deterioration and Information Warfare Surge – Zaporizhzhia Axis

This report integrates the confirmed RF dual-axis offensive data from the past 24 hours with new kinetic and information domain intelligence, providing actionable insight for operational maneuver and strategic communications.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture remains critically unstable along the Zaporizhzhia Axis, defined by the RF shift to a dual-axis offensive targeting the Huliaipole salient.

FLANK BREAKTHROUGH (CRITICAL): The confirmed capture of Chervone (Vysokoye) by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB) has created an immediate flanking threat. Control of Chervone allows RF forces to bypass established mine belts protecting the Northwest approach to Huliaipole.
MAIN EFFORT STAGING: The 37th Guards MRB remains staged at Zelyony Gai, poised to execute the Main Land Drive (MLD) toward Stepnohorsk.
CONTROL MEASURES: UAF JFC South has designated Phase Line BRAVO (NW of Huliaipole) as the immediate line of defense requiring reserve commitment (Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK").

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

The predicted Geomagnetic Storm window (2025-12-03) may have concluded or continues to impact the theater. The effect on GNSS reliance, particularly for precision-guided munitions (KAB/Gerbera) and tactical C2 redundancy, remains an unquantified variable. UAF EW assets were recommended to exploit this environment.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control

UAF forces are currently split between containing the 38th GMRB exploitation and maintaining anti-armor density against the expected 37th GMRB mechanized assault. RF forces demonstrate successful strategic distraction, fixing UAF northern reserves (Kharkiv/Vovchansk) and exploiting the resulting weakness in the South.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

Intentions: RF intent is to achieve an operational collapse of the UAF Zaporizhzhia defense via coordinated flanking pressure (38th GMRB) and main axis penetration (37th GMRB). Capabilities: RF capabilities remain high, supported by confirmed critical-level ammunition throughput (260th GRAU Arsenal Score: 26.12).

Technological Focus: RF SpN units are actively targeting UAF robotic platforms, confirmed by FPV footage of a strike on a Ukrainian NRTK (Near Kostiantynivka). This aligns with the wider RF push to standardize advanced unmanned systems (Sever Group doctrine).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No new major offensive maneuvers confirmed in the past 18 hours, suggesting the 38th GMRB may be consolidating, or the RF is deliberately delaying the MLD to ensure full synchronization across the two axes. The focus on neutralizing UAF ground robotics indicates adaptation to UAF technological integration.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Fuel: UAF deep strikes successfully degraded static fuel storage (Tambov/Voronezh). This increases RF reliance on vulnerable rail and tactical distribution networks.
Ammunition: Sustainment for kinetic action remains unconstrained (GRAU Score: 26.12).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 appears effective at the strategic and operational level, demonstrated by the successful breakthrough and subsequent holding action necessary to coordinate the dual-axis attack. Strategic signaling (Putin’s year-end summary, Modi meeting) maintains domestic and non-Western international narrative control.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are in a critical defensive posture, awaiting the final RF push. Immediate reserve availability and decisive commitment to Phase Line BRAVO is the critical factor for preventing operational encirclement.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks: Confirmed RF breakthrough at Chervone (2025-12-03). A technical malfunction resulted in the failed launch of the UAF "Molniya" UAV, highlighting vulnerabilities in system deployment or readiness. Loss of a UAF NRTK to an RF FPV strike demonstrates a clear counter-robotics threat.
Successes: UAF deep strike campaign significantly degraded RF logistics (fuel). The 100th OMBR achieved success against RF equipment using FPV drones near Kostiantynivka, reinforcing local tactical morale.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Critical Resource Requirement (IMMEDIATE): Timely commitment of mechanized or motorized reserves to contain the Chervone exploitation before Huliaipole is bypassed. Strategic Resource Requirement: Sustained US/Western support is critical, coinciding with high-level delegation travel (Umerov/Hnatov) to the US for peace plan discussions.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

The cognitive domain is subject to a high-impact RF Disinformation/PSYOP campaign aimed at fracturing transatlantic political cohesion.

Domain	Finding	Confidence	Assessment
Transatlantic Cohesion (DISINFO)	Repeated dissemination of a purported transcript alleging US "betrayal" and European leaders' deep distrust in the US security commitment to Ukraine.	HIGH	CRITICAL THREAT. This is a deliberate, targeted PSYOP designed to undermine the current UAF high-level diplomatic mission in the US and erode domestic Ukrainian morale regarding external support reliability.
RF Strategic Narrative	Pro-Kremlin sources (Старше Эдды) aggressively denounce the European Union as a "terrorist organization," explicitly naming EU leaders (Von der Leyen, Kallas).	HIGH	Signals a major strategic shift in RF narrative, likely preempting or justifying future aggressive actions regarding frozen assets or formal severance of ties with EU institutions.
Diplomatic Signaling	Confirmation of Russian leadership meeting with Indian PM Modi upon arrival.	MEDIUM	Reinforces the RF narrative of strong, continued global non-Western alignment, mitigating the impact of UAF deep strikes and Western sanctions.
UAF Counter-IO	UAF General Prosecutor's office highlights domestic anti-corruption efforts (Kyiv water protection).	HIGH	Important effort to maintain domestic trust, but currently overshadowed by the critical military and external disinformation threats.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF command will execute a synchronized, coordinated offensive designed to overwhelm UAF defenses through timing and resource dedication.

COA: Dual-Axis Breakthrough and Exploitation.

Exploitation (Chervone): The 38th GMRB will renew its advance from Chervone NLT 041800Z DEC, seeking to bypass Huliaipole to the Northwest, fixing UAF reserves on the flank.
Penetration (Stepnohorsk): Once UAF reserves are committed, the 37th GMRB will launch the main mechanized assault at Stepnohorsk NLT 042100Z DEC, utilizing heavy air support (KAB) and potentially UGV-led breaching elements (Kuryer) against the now-thinned primary defensive line.

Confidence: HIGH

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Decapitation and C2 Paralysis. RF executes a high-precision, deep strike on a critical UAF operational C2 node (e.g., JFC South HQ or logistical coordination center) using advanced systems (Kinzhal/Iskander/Lancet Swarms). This strike is coupled with immediate, aggressive ground action from the 38th GMRB, aiming to induce panic and disorganized retreat toward the Dnipro River before effective tactical command can be restored.

Confidence: MEDIUM

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point
Chervone Push	NLT 041800Z DEC	Confirmation of 38th GMRB movement status (ADVANCE or CONSOLIDATE).
Stepnohorsk MLD	NLT 042100Z DEC	Commitment of deep reserves (if held back from Bravo Line) to prevent main line breach.
Huliaipole Stability	Next 24 hours	Success of Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK."

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action
P1 (CRITICAL)	Current tactical status and disposition of the 38th GMRB near Chervone. (Are they advancing or consolidating?)	IMMEDIATE ISR TASKING (High-resolution EO/IR/SAR) covering the sector NW of Chervone and along Phase Line BRAVO.
P2 (LOGISTICS)	Full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on the Druzhba pipeline sabotage claim and the overall fuel shortage impact on RF forward operational tempo.	GUR asset penetration and SIGINT correlation regarding RF strategic fuel resupply manifests.
P3 (C2/EW)	Quantifiable assessment of the impact of the geomagnetic storm on RF precision strike assets (KAB guidance and Gerbera links).	ELINT/SIGINT monitoring focused on known RF C2 frequencies and GNSS jamming effectiveness.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: VALIDATE/RE-TASK PHASE LINE BRAVO DEFENSE.

Resolution of P1 is paramount. If ISR confirms 38th GMRB is advancing, immediately commit the designated reserve to anti-armor blocking positions on Phase Line BRAVO.
Counter-Robotics Doctrine: Disseminate the latest intelligence concerning RF FPV targeting of UAF NRTK/UGVs (Kostiantynivka data) across all relevant operational groups. Integrate passive protection and dedicated drone escorts for robotic systems on the frontline.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J3/J2)

ACTION: RAIL INTERDICTION AMPLIFICATION. Maintain pressure on RF logistics. Shift long-range fire targeting priority (HIMARS/ATACMS/UAV) from static depots (now destroyed) to RF rail-tanker staging areas and major railway junctions (e.g., Rostov/Crimea logistics hubs). Disable rolling stock to amplify the fuel crisis caused by the Tambov/Voronezh strikes.

7.3. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (STRATCOM/NCA)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE COUNTER-DISINFORMATION SURGE.

Rebuttal: Immediately issue a high-level public statement (Presidential/MoD level) definitively denying the authenticity of the alleged "leaked transcript" targeting US commitment.
Positive Proof: Utilize the ongoing high-level delegation (Umerov/Hnatov) visit to the US as immediate, irrefutable proof of continued strategic coordination and unity. Frame the delegation’s work as planning for the "next phase" of cooperation, directly countering the RF narrative of "betrayal."

Situation Report