Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL UPDATE

DTG: 2025-12-03 / 19:35Z OPERATIONAL FOCUS: Zaporizhzhia Axis (Huliaipole-Stepnohorsk Sector) REFERENCE: Previous SITREP (2025-12-03 19:05Z)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF operational window for the coordinated dual-axis offensive is currently active. The critical engagement zone is Phase Line BRAVO (NW Huliaipole), where UAF reserves are intended to interdict the 38th GMRB exploitation force moving from Chervone. The RF 37th GMRB remains postured at Zelyony Gai for the Main Land Drive (MLD) on Stepnohorsk.

Key Update: The air raid clear in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast (19:14Z) may signal a shift from preparatory aerial strikes (KAB/Missile) to imminent mechanized ground maneuver (37th GMRB MLD).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The Geomagnetic Storm remains at peak intensity (1900Z - 2100Z).

• IMPACT: This window provides both a threat (MDCOA 1: Masked C2 Decapitation Strikes) and an opportunity (Enhanced EW effectiveness against loitering munitions/UAVs). EW posture must be maximized for defense and offense NLT 2100Z. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF control measures hinge on the successful execution of PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK." Confirmation of UAF reserve engagement with the 38th GMRB NLT 1930Z is critical.

External Threat: RF missile activity is confirmed across the deep rear (Kryvyi Rih, 19:04Z), sustaining pressure on UAF air defense assets and limiting the ability to reposition air assets to the Southern Axis.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RED FORCES)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intentions are validated: Operational rupture on the Zaporizhzhia Axis to gain diplomatic leverage.

Current Action Status (Judgment): The 38th GMRB is currently consolidating its breach or initiating the exploitation drive toward Phase Line BRAVO. RF is using the lull in aerial attacks (Air Raid Clear, 19:14Z) to initiate or synchronize the 37th GMRB MLD.

RF Adaptation (Fact/Judgment): RF rear defense is demonstrably strained. The widespread declaration of "Red Level" UAV threat alerts across multiple Central Federal Districts (Gryazinsky, Dobrinsky, etc., 19:25Z) confirms that UAF deep strike campaigns are achieving continuous operational disturbance deep within Russian territory. This confirms a high level of operational risk aversion and compels RF to divert significant AD and security assets away from the front line. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The sustained UAF deep strike on fuel infrastructure (Tambov/Voronezh) is forcing RF to place its internal districts on high alert (Red Level UAV threat). While the 260th GRAU Arsenal Score (26.12) indicates ammunition throughput is stable, the increased threat to rolling stock and internal logistics nodes (fuel/AD) suggests RF may face increasing friction in sustaining high-tempo mechanized operations past the initial breach phase. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains synchronized for the kinetic offensive. The use of proxy channels to immediately amplify diplomatic narratives (Putin/US proxy meeting, 19:11Z) shows effective synchronization between the RF strategic communications (G7) and kinetic operations (G3).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCES)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is highly dependent on the timely execution of PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK." Failure to contain the 38th GMRB exploitation now will expose the Stepnohorsk defense to a double envelopment threat.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: The UAF deep strike campaign continues to exert extreme pressure on RF deep rear logistics and AD networks, confirmed by widespread "Red Level" alerts. This constrains RF ability to surge reinforcements.
• Setback: The lack of confirmed engagement status at Phase Line BRAVO (P-2 Gap) suggests UAF reserves may be delayed or unable to quickly secure the blocking positions critical for Huliaipole’s defense.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Resource appeals for niche capabilities (snipers, 19:16Z) and general fundraising (19:10Z) highlight the continued pressure on UAF funding, exacerbated by the narrative of budget friction amplified in the IE. The political constraint posed by Italy’s PURL suspension remains the top strategic concern.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IE)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is actively leveraging major strategic and domestic events simultaneously:

1. Diplomatic Victory Narrative: RF-linked channels immediately disseminated the news that US representatives (Witkoff/Kushner) reported a "productive meeting" with Putin (19:11Z). This reinforces the MDCOA 2 (Strategic Diplomatic Coercion) threat by signaling an RF advantage in ongoing negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Domestic Destabilization: High-profile critiques regarding military salaries and the state budget (19:15Z) are being used to undermine faith in the Verkhovna Rada and UAF leadership, potentially lowering domestic morale just as the tactical situation is most dire.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic sentiment is likely under severe stress due to the combination of missile strikes (Kryvyi Rih), high-stakes diplomatic talks where RF appears confident, and internal political friction narratives. The clear and immediate operational threat on the Southern front has not yet been reflected in the main IO space, but this may change rapidly upon confirmed breach.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The immediate diplomatic focus must shift to mitigating the damage caused by the Italian PURL suspension, as it feeds directly into the RF narrative of eroding Western cohesion, which the US proxy talks are now amplifying.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Coordinated Dual-Axis MLD and Flank Envelopment (High Confidence)

RF will exploit the UAF reserve commitment delay (P-2 Gap) and the geomagnetic storm window to execute a simultaneous thrust:

1. 38th GMRB: Pressures Phase Line BRAVO (Huliaipole flank) to fix anti-armor reserves.
2. 37th GMRB: Launches the main mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk, utilizing UGV "Kuryer" systems to suppress forward defenses.

• Timeline: MLD commencement is immediate (1935Z - 2000Z). The previous NLT 1930Z estimate must be treated as commenced.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA 1: C2 Decapitation Under EW Cover (High Confidence) Given the narrow window (1900Z-2100Z) and the RF history of exploiting electromagnetic interference, RF will execute a precision strike (Iskander/Kinzhal) aimed at Corps-level C2 or GLOC control centers (e.g., Pavlohrad). The geomagnetic interference provides tactical cover against effective UAF interception and early warning, leading to localized command paralysis coinciding with the MLD.

MDCOA 2: Strategic Diplomatic Coercion (Medium Confidence) RF leverages the diplomatic momentum (reported successful meeting with US proxies) and the PURL suspension to publicly propose a ceasefire framework that locks in current tactical gains, forcing the UAF negotiating team into an immediate defensive posture.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

• PRIORITY 1: KINETIC INTERDICTION: Treat the Stepnohorsk MLD as commenced. Immediately execute pre-planned counter-preparation fires on known 37th GMRB staging areas at Zelyony Gai and confirmed UGV deployment points, regardless of P-1 confirmation status. Utilize counter-battery radar to target associated RF artillery used for preparatory fire.
• PRIORITY 2: HULIAIPOLE FLANK: If UAF reserves are not confirmed engaging the 38th GMRB at Phase Line BRAVO by 2000Z, immediately allocate close air support (if available) or heavy mechanized assets to prevent the collapse of the Huliaipole defense.

6.2. Electronic Warfare & Fires (J6 / J3)

• MDCOA 1 MITIGATION (URGENT): Increase electronic hardening and redundant communication links for all Brigade and Corps-level HQs (especially 5th Assault Brigade C2 and Pavlohrad GLOC control) until 2100Z. Prioritize continuous spectral monitoring for high-frequency missile guidance signatures.
• AMPLIFY REAR DAMAGE: Capitalize on the RF "Red Level" alerts. Immediately task ISR assets to confirm the targets and impact of the recent strikes. Use this confirmed intelligence to plan follow-on kinetic attacks against the most sensitive logistics hubs now known to be under stress (e.g., fuel staging, rail classification yards in Lipetsk/Voronezh regions).

6.3. Strategic Communications and Diplomacy (NCA / G7)

• DIPLOMATIC COUNTER-SURGE: The MFA must coordinate a joint, high-level public statement with key European PURL members (Germany, France, Poland) immediately reaffirming their commitment to the program, thereby isolating the Italian decision and countering the RF narrative of fragmentation.
• COUNTER-DOMESTIC FRICTION: UAF spokespersons must issue targeted statements refuting the political attacks on the military budget and linking current deep strike successes (Tambov/Voronezh/Red Alerts) directly to the necessity of sustained domestic support and reform efforts (Budget transparency).

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)