Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) – MDCOA THREAT LEVEL INCREASE AND TERMINAL PHASE IN POKROVSK

TIME: 011800Z DEC 25 CONFIDENCE LEVEL: HIGH

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment is defined by the terminal phase collapse in Donetsk and the imminent high-intensity breakthrough threat in Zaporizhzhia.

• Pokrovsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast): The defensive operation is now in the Terminal Phase. RF sources (DeepState, Svoikapr) confirm consolidation of positions around Zlagoda and continued interdiction fires on the western GLOC (Phase Line W-1). The window for organized extraction of isolated SKELIA Regiment personnel has closed (NLT 011830Z DEC). Focus must shift from extraction to fire support for decentralized breakout operations.
• Southern Axis (Stepnohorsk/Orikhiv): Confirmed staging of the RF 55th Guards Naval Infantry Division remains the Decisive Point. Anticipated MDCOA initiation is now sub-12 hours (NLT 020200Z DEC).
• Air Domain: Persistent RF kinetic pressure via UAVs targeting rear areas (Confirmed BpLA group over Kharkiv heading SW) continues to drain UAF Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) resources needed for frontline defense.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Conditions remain conducive for sustained UAS and deep-strike operations. The critical factor is the confirmed nationwide electrical grid constraint (NLT 020600Z DEC), which is expected to stress UAF C2 and logistical continuity if mitigation protocols are not fully implemented.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF control measures prioritize the concentration of anti-armor and counter-UAS assets in the Zaporizhzhia corridor. Strategic C2 stability is currently challenged by internal IO vulnerabilities (Mindich arrest) which RF is exploiting.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intentions are to achieve a decisive operational breakthrough in the South while simultaneously degrading UAF strategic capacity via infrastructure strikes and sophisticated IO traps.

• Mechanized Offensive Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The 55th Guards Naval Infantry Division is prepared for deployment. This remains the primary kinetic threat, targeting a rapid, deep penetration.
• Logistical & Force Generation Adaptation (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF confirms two key adaptations:
  1. Deployment of the "Mangas" heavy-lift drone to forward Vostok assault units (previously reported).
  2. Utilization of criminal mitigation measures (e.g., Perm official SVO contract) to rapidly replenish manpower, prioritizing quantity over quality in forward detachments. This sustains high casualty rates while keeping assault groups filled.
• IO/Diplomatic Synchronization (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is executing the MLCOA script by synchronizing ground pressure (Pokrovsk consolidation) with maximalist IO (exploiting Zaluzhnyi's op-ed to frame UAF demands as nuclear escalation) to maximize leverage during forthcoming diplomatic meetings.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The consolidation of RF gains in Pokrovsk is being used immediately to support the diplomatic MLCOA. The introduction of the criminal-waiver recruitment scheme signals a formalization of low-quality, high-attrition force rotation tactics.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are resilient. The Turkish President's public statement regarding threats to Black Sea navigation (011731Z) raises the risk assessment for maritime logistical pressure, potentially impacting UAF supply lines in the mid-term (30-60 days) if an undeclared blockade is enacted (Confidence 0.172 belief).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in synchronizing multi-domain pressure, seamlessly shifting between ground offense, infrastructure strikes, and high-level IO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive concentration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast; shifting to decentralized tactical retreat/breakout in Donetsk. READINESS: Combat readiness remains high but constrained by critical air defense munition shortages (Financial constraint). AD assets are committed far from the main effort (Kharkiv UAV report). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Deep Strike): Confirmed successful destruction of the Shahed launch facility in Crimea by SSO (011709Z).
• Setback (IO/Domestic Integrity): RF is immediately leveraging the arrest in absentia of businessman Mindich ("Zelensky's wallet") to undermine NCA legitimacy and domestic morale.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL FINANCIAL CONSTRAINT (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The $750 Million EUR funding gap to secure US weapons procurement remains the immediate operational constraint directly impacting the ability to decisively defeat the 55th Guards MDCOA.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (RF)

RF IO is actively attempting to destabilize UAF domestic and international standing:

1. Delegitimization through Corruption: Immediate, synchronized messaging (TASS/RU military blogs) labeling Timur Mindich the "wallet of Zelensky" seeks to link high-level corruption directly to the NCA, aiming to fracture public trust and diplomatic support (011723Z).
2. Nuclear Escalation Trap: RF propaganda is heavily amplifying reports of Zaluzhnyi calling for nuclear weapons or large NATO contingents to frame Ukraine's security needs as reckless escalation, discouraging further Western military commitment (011712Z).
3. Diplomatic Mockery: Continued mockery of Western leaders (Macron) is intended to project RF immunity to international pressure and signal weakness in the Coalition of the Willing.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is currently oscillating between resilience (SSO success) and fatigue (power outages, Mindich corruption narrative). Proactive, transparent communication from the NCA is essential to manage the corruption narrative and prevent RF IO from gaining traction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Turkish President Erdoğan's public statement introduces a new risk vector in the Black Sea domain, signaling potential escalation or geopolitical maneuvering related to maritime navigation security. This could trigger heightened NATO reconnaissance or protective measures, increasing the complexity of the theater. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: INFRASTRUCTURE ATTRITION AND IO MANEUVER. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will maintain maximum pressure on the energy grid (systemic constraints NLT 020600Z DEC) to degrade UAF operational tempo. Simultaneously, RF IO will leverage the Pokrovsk tactical victory and the corruption narrative to solidify the diplomatic position ahead of upcoming negotiations, demanding an immediate ceasefire based on current front lines to freeze the conflict.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: 55TH GUARDS DEPLOYMENT AND HEAVY-LIFT ASSAULT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The full-scale combined arms assault on the Stepnohorsk/Orikhiv axis launches between 020000Z and 020600Z DEC. The assault utilizes intensive aviation (KAB/Jet-Shahed) preparation followed by the rapid deployment of assault echelons supported by the "Mangas" heavy-lift UAS system to provide immediate tactical logistics/fire support, aiming for a decisive breach of the main line of defense (MLD).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operations and Fire Support (J-3/J-5)

1. Pokrovsk Interdiction (IMMEDIATE): Reassign long-range fire assets (HIMARS/MLRS) previously dedicated to extraction to executing maximal suppression fires on RF consolidation zones west of Pokrovsk (vicinity Zlagoda/Phase Line W-1). Objective: disrupt RF tactical momentum and increase friction for decentralized UAF breakouts.
2. Southern Counter-Preparation (CRITICAL): Directive: Confirm 5 OShB readiness NLT 011900Z DEC. Ensure immediate deployment of dedicated counter-UAS teams (EW/hard-kill systems) to their forward lines to specifically neutralize the anticipated "Mangas" system and accompanying ISR drones ahead of the MDCOA.
3. Air Defense Optimization (URGENT): Given sustained RF BpLA strikes in rear areas (Kharkiv), immediately prioritize the deployment of cost-effective, improvised AD solutions (e.g., confirmed R-60 TTPs or SHORAD variants) to defend key energy infrastructure in Dnipro/Kharkiv, allowing high-value Patriot/NASAMS systems to remain focused on protecting forces against KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia.

7.2. Strategic Communications and Diplomacy (NCA/J-7)

1. Counter-Corruption Narrative (IMMEDIATE): NCA must release a proactive, transparent statement NLT 012200Z DEC regarding the Mindich arrest. Frame the legal action as proof of Ukraine's commitment to institutional integrity and accountability, even during wartime, directly countering the RF narrative labeling the NCA as corrupt.
2. Financial Mobilization (URGENT): The NCA must launch an immediate diplomatic offensive targeting key partners to fill the remaining $750 Million EUR funding requirement. Frame the gap as an immediate operational necessity against the confirmed threat of the 55th Guards Division breach.
3. Neutralize Escalation Trap: Publicly dismiss RF propaganda regarding the maximalist Zaluzhnyi op-ed, reaffirming that Ukraine's official diplomatic goal remains a full withdrawal of RF forces and comprehensive, non-nuclear security guarantees from allies.