Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT 012/01 DEC 25

TIME: 010834Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS - CRITICAL GLOC SEVERANCE IMMINENT. STRATEGIC C2 PARALYSIS PERSISTS AMIDST HEIGHTENED RF DEEP FIRE CAMPAIGN.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational crisis at Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast) has intensified, coinciding with a nationwide surge in RF deep fires.

• Pokrovsk Main Effort: Kinetic operations remain critical following the 0800Z reserve commitment decision point. RF forces are confirmed active on the Konstantinivka flank (78th MRR 'Akhmat'), suggesting preparation for follow-on exploitation or securing the western approach to the M-30/H-20 GLOC. GLOC severance remains highly probable NLT 1000Z.
• Deep Strike Campaign: RF has initiated multiple synchronized ballistic and Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes:
  • Ballistic missile threat materialized, striking Dnipro City (08:10Z - 08:31Z).
  • KAB strikes reported on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy regions (08:20Z - 08:31Z).
• Northern Activity (Fixing Operation): Shahed UAV activity reported in the Vyshhorod district (Kyiv region) from the Chernihiv axis (08:25Z), confirming continued probing/fixing operations to stretch UAF Air Defense resources.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Current conditions are not operationally restrictive. RF continues to utilize advanced drone TTPs and massed fires (TOS-1A, KABs) to overcome UAF static defenses, irrespective of mild winter conditions.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF Air Defense: Remains highly active, issuing multiple, time-critical ballistic and KAB alerts.
• Critical Infrastructure Degradation: Post-attack assessments confirm widespread power outages in several oblasts (08:24Z), indicating the RF energy strike campaign is successfully degrading UAF logistical and civil sustainment capacity.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

B. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF strategic sustainment signals are robust, relying on long-term partnerships (China visa-free agreement facilitates future technical/economic exchange) and projected domestic stability (economic reports). The immediate focus remains on securing the Pokrovsk GLOC. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly integrated, demonstrated by the seamless synchronization of ground maneuver (78th MRR), deep strikes (Dnipro), and strategic IO (amplification of US/Ukraine diplomatic friction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

D. Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements (CR)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are under maximum kinetic and political pressure. While tactical air defense remains effective against saturation attacks, strategic C2 paralysis threatens the operational integrity of the Donetsk front. The focus on high-level political figures (Yermak) and the confirmed lack of final US negotiation agreement place maximum stress on the NCA's ability to issue clear orders.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The Information Operations (IO) attack remains highly synchronized with kinetic activity.

1. US-Ukraine Fissure: RF media amplifies lack of agreement in Florida talks and suggests EU allies are being kept in the dark (Kallas quote), fueling the perception of US withdrawal and forcing a potential territorial compromise decision.
2. Internal Leadership Crisis: RF assets actively target the integrity of the NCA by suggesting Yermak's political future is compromised ("matter of time" until suspicion/legal action).
3. RF Resilience Projection: RF media floods channels with positive economic news (Ruble strength, 16% interest rates), strategic partnership announcements (China visa-free), and internal security successes (scammer bust), painting a picture of total stability necessary for a long-war commitment.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is currently threatened by the trifecta of strategic uncertainty (US/NATO), internal political instability (Yermak), and direct physical threat (ballistic strikes on Dnipro). The lack of confirmation regarding the 0800Z reserve decision risks widespread military and public panic if the GLOC is severed without an organized counter-maneuver.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces will fully exploit the Pokrovsk breach, utilizing the 78th MRR and concentrated fires to sever the M-30/H-20 GLOC NLT 011000Z DEC 25. RF will leverage this tactical victory to issue an amplified political ultimatum, forcing a strategic defensive consolidation by UAF forces further west under adverse terms. Long-range strikes will continue targeting energy infrastructure to maximize C2 disruption.

• Timeline Estimate: GLOC Severance NLT 1.5 Hours.
• Confidence: HIGH

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The MDCOA remains the synchronized breakthrough in the Southern Axis (Stepnohorsk/Huliaipole). If the Pokrovsk GLOC is severed and UAF reserves remain uncommitted or disorganized due to C2 paralysis, RF will launch the Southern mechanized assault under heavy tactical aviation cover (high SAR score), aiming to create a two-front operational collapse.

• Timeline Estimate: MDCOA Initiation Window: 011000Z DEC 25 – 011800Z DEC 25.
• Confidence: MEDIUM (Contingent on strategic C2 failure NLT 0900Z).

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

CRITICAL C2 DECISION POINT (URGENT): 010845Z DEC 25. NCA must confirm GO/NO-GO on Strategic Reserves and transmit operational orders. CRITICAL KINETIC ACTION POINT (IMMEDIATE): 010900Z DEC 25. Confirmed intelligence on TOS-1A neutralization must be available. CRITICAL STRATCOM DECISION POINT (URGENT): 010900Z DEC 25. NCA must execute a Phase V "UNITY" address to stabilize the domestic and international information environment.

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

A. IMMEDIATE KINETIC RESPONSE (J3/J2)

1. C2 EMERGENCY PROTOCOL: J3 must operate under the assumption that the 0800Z reserve commitment has been missed unless proven otherwise. Activate the pre-planned Western Blocking Position establishment plan (Phase Line W-1).
2. URGENT ATTRITION PLAN: Prioritize the use of all remaining indirect fires (including limited strategic deep strike assets) for controlled demolition of key intersections/bridges west of Pokrovsk to deny rapid RF maneuverability and mechanized exploitation. This should target known choke points for follow-on forces like the 78th MRR.
3. AIR DEFENSE PRIORITY SHIFT: Reprioritize remaining mobile air defense assets to protect key energy grid nodes identified as vulnerable by the Ministry of Energy, mitigating further nationwide C4ISR and logistical strain.

B. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND COUNTER-NARRATIVE (NCA/J9)

1. PROTOCOL UNITY PHASE V EXECUTION (URGENT): The NCA must issue a statement NLT 010900Z DEC 25 that directly and explicitly links the diplomatic leak/negotiation friction and the Yermak controversy to the synchronous kinetic attack at Pokrovsk (TOS-1A saturation). Frame the current crisis as a test of national resolve, not a sign of defeat.
2. COUNTER-PERSONNEL TARGETING: Immediately deploy an IO package (domestic and international) framing the Vyshhorod programmer's death as an RF war crime and an act of state terrorism against Ukrainian technological capability. This shifts the narrative focus from operational setbacks to RF brutality and illegality.
3. DIPLOMATIC PIVOT: Utilize the planned Ireland visit announcement to demonstrate the ongoing success of diplomatic diversification and commitment to long-term European integration, counteracting the narrative of strategic abandonment by the West.

//END OF REPORT//