Sitrep 2025-12-01 03:04:25

DTG: 010400Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: SITREP UPDATE 01 DEC 25 // POKROVSK GLOC AND NORTHERN AXIS IO FIXING

OVERALL ASSESSMENT: The enemy (RF) maintains a highly effective multi-domain synchronization strategy. The kinetic threat to the Pokrovsk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) remains critical, amplified by a coordinated Information Operations (IO) campaign designed to provoke strategic paralysis in the Ukrainian National Command Authority (NCA). New intelligence confirms the RF strategy is now utilizing secondary fronts (Siversk/Lyman) not just for kinetic shaping, but for explicit, immediate propaganda aimed at forcing UAF to commit strategic reserves prematurely or incorrectly.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (CURRENT OPERATIONAL PICTURE)

Element	Status and Impact	Confidence
Battlefield Geometry (Donetsk)	CRITICAL. RF elements remain infiltrated in Pokrovsk urban periphery. The integrity of the primary GLOC (M-30/H-20) remains unconfirmed but is presumed under high threat of interdiction. This is the Center of Gravity (COG) for the current operational phase.	HIGH
Battlefield Geometry (Northern/Eastern Axes)	ESCALATED IO FIXING. TASS reports claim UAF defenses "visibly sagged" near Siversk and Krasny Lyman. This propaganda directly follows RF kinetic strikes in the Siversk direction and continued UAV reconnaissance in Kharkiv. Intent is to fix UAF reserves and amplify strategic confusion.	HIGH
Battlefield Geometry (Southern Axis)	PERSISTENT PROBING. UAV activity confirmed near Ovidopol, Odesa region, approaching from the Black Sea. Confirms continued reconnaissance efforts and pressure on key logistical targets along the coast, supporting the Stepnohorsk threat profile.	HIGH
Weather/Environment	Operational weather continues to favor RF deep strike and UAS/KAB deployment capability across multiple axes (Kharkiv, Odesa). Visibility is adequate for precision operations.	HIGH
Current Force Dispositions	UAF SKELIA Regiment engaged in critical urban defense. Strategic reserves remain uncommitted, constrained by the ongoing IO crisis and uncertainty regarding the GLOC and R-1 fire status.	MEDIUM

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

Element	Assessment	Confidence
Capabilities & Intentions	RF maintains the intent to sever the Pokrovsk GLOC and leverage this tactical success for decisive IO impact (forcing strategic concessions). RF is deliberately expanding the IO campaign to Siversk/Lyman to test UAF resolve and strategic decision-making capacity.	HIGH
Recent Tactical Changes	IO SYNCHRONIZATION. RF state media is now generating explicit, real-time intelligence narratives about UAF collapse in peripheral sectors (Siversk/Lyman) to complement the Pokrovsk pressure. This is a critical tactical adaptation designed to force a catastrophic misallocation of UAF reserves away from the main Donetsk effort or the MDCOA (Stepnohorsk).	HIGH
Logistics & Sustainment	RF forward sustainment via the Kazakh corridor remains viable for immediate operational needs. UAF loss of the Sumy depot remains a constraint on high-caliber reserve support for the next 48-72 hours.	HIGH
Command and Control	RF C2 demonstrates highly effective multi-domain synchronization, coordinating KAB/UAS strikes (Kharkiv/Odesa) with the Pokrovsk breach and the coordinated TASS propaganda campaign targeting UAF reserve allocation.	HIGH

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

Element	Assessment	Requirements/Constraints
UAF Posture and Readiness	UAF forces are holding in Pokrovsk CQC. The primary vulnerability is the psychological pressure exerted by the simultaneous kinetic threat and the Siversk/Lyman IO. Decision cycle speed for strategic reserve commitment is the limiting factor.	Immediate, definitive resolution of the R-1 Fire Mission status and GLOC integrity.
Recent Tactical Successes	Successful TTP development with the "Sting" interceptor and 5 OShB's anti-vehicle UGV remain valuable assets for counter-mobility and low-level air defense, particularly in the high-threat Stepnohorsk sector.	Rapid dissemination and deployment plan for these assets is required to address the MDCOA.
Resource Constraints	Artillery constraints persist due to the Sumy loss. Any required reserve commitment must rely heavily on precision fires (R-1 status) and integrated FPV/UGV support.	Prioritize PGM allocation to the Pokrovsk sector until GLOC integrity is confirmed.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

The current environment is characterized by Strategic Diversion via Narrative Amplification.

Domain Factor	Assessment and Impact	Confidence
Propaganda / Disinformation	Critical Threat. RF is successfully broadening the narrative of UAF collapse, pivoting from the "Umerov Crisis" to explicit claims of tactical failure in the Siversk/Lyman sectors. The intent is to compel UAF to allocate reserves to non-critical axes.	HIGH
Public Sentiment	Morale remains highly sensitive to the Pokrovsk outcome. Successes (Alabuga, UGV deployment) provide temporary resilience, but failure to secure the GLOC will validate RF's collapse narrative, irrespective of external front stability.	MEDIUM
International Support	External messaging (e.g., Turkish Kızılelma air-to-air success report) offers short-term positive reinforcement regarding allied technological capabilities, providing a necessary counterpoint to RF claims of strategic momentum.	HIGH
Actionable Insight	UAF Command must treat the Siversk/Lyman claims primarily as a Strategic Diversionary IO Effort (SDIOE) until physical confirmation of a major breakthrough is received. NCA public messaging (Protocol "UNITY") must explicitly dismiss the Siversk/Lyman claims.	HIGH

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

Scenario	Assessment	Timeline Estimate	Confidence
MLCOA (Urban Consolidation & Narrative Lock)	RF continues to exploit the IO campaign. They consolidate the Pokrovsk breach (severing the GLOC NLT 011000Z DEC 25), using this success and the amplified Siversk/Lyman collapse narrative to force strategic concessions during ongoing diplomatic talks.	Next 12 Hours (NLT 011500Z DEC 25)	HIGH
MDCOA (Stepnohorsk Breakthrough Under IO Cover)	RF observes UAF reserves fixed by either the Pokrovsk crisis or diverted by the Siversk/Lyman propaganda. RF initiates a rapid, sustained air and ground assault on the Stepnohorsk axis (Southern Front), utilizing the surged tactical aviation (1488th AA Regiment). The goal is a double, synchronized breakthrough, achieving operational depth and creating a larger-scale pocket.	Next 24 Hours (NLT 020200Z DEC 25)	MEDIUM

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)
PRIORITY 1 (KINETIC STATUS)	R-1 Fire Mission Execution Status. URGENT: Confirmation of whether the planned artillery interdiction against Hryshyne/Pokrovsk RF concentrations occurred. This determines whether immediate heavy reserve fire support is available.	IMINT/LIDAR/UAS Reconnaissance of Hryshyne/Pokrovsk ingress routes NLT 010500Z DEC 25.
PRIORITY 2 (GLOC Integrity)	Pokrovsk GLOC Status. Is the primary supply route (M-30/H-20) currently interdicted, severed, or under direct fire control?	HUMAN/UAS real-time reporting from SKELIA Regiment and forward logistics units.
PRIORITY 3 (RF Intentions/Siversk)	Kinetic Reality in Siversk/Lyman. Confirm the level of RF force commitment and contact severity in the Siversk/Lyman sectors to distinguish propaganda from true operational threat.	SIGINT/ELINT tasking on known RF maneuver units in Siversk/Krasny Lyman sectors.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

URGENT DECISION (J3/J2): GLOC Status and Reserve Commitment
- TASK: Immediately dedicate all P-1 and P-2 collection assets to confirm GLOC and R-1 status NLT 010500Z DEC 25.
- ACTION: If the GLOC is confirmed severed, COMMIT STRATEGIC RESERVES IMMEDIATELY to secure the secondary/tertiary routes and establish a hardened perimeter west of Pokrovsk. Prioritize securing the western withdrawal route over urban reclamation.
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (NCA/J9): Neutralize SDIOE
- ACTION: Execute Protocol "UNITY" NLT 010600Z DEC 25. The NCA address must aggressively counter the "surrender" narrative while explicitly labeling the Siversk/Lyman reports as RF deliberate disinformation aimed at strategic diversion.
- WARNING: Do not divert strategic reserves based solely on TASS reporting regarding Siversk/Lyman (SDIOE).
FORCE ALLOCATION (J3/Tech): Harden MDCOA Axes
- ACTION: Accelerate deployment and integration of validated "Sting" interceptor units and UGV TTP teams to the Stepnohorsk sector (Southern Axis). These assets are vital for counter-mobility and air defense against the anticipated MDCOA surge.
- PRIORITY: These emerging capabilities are better suited for the high-mobility, suppressed-AD environment of the South than for the static, propaganda-driven sectors of the East.
DEEP STRIKE FOLLOW-UP (J2/GUR): Continued Logistical Interdiction
- ACTION: Maintain the offensive rhythm against RF logistics. Execute prepared strike packages against the Caspian/Volga rail hubs supporting the Kazakh corridor NLT 011000Z DEC 25 to further degrade RF long-term operational reach while they are concentrated on the Pokrovsk breach.

//END OF REPORT//