Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTSITREP)

TIME: 302004Z NOV 25 OPERATION: Joint Defensive Maneuver (JDM) // Multi-Axis Crisis Synchronization (MAC-S) PERIOD: H-301935Z NOV 25 to H-302004Z NOV 25 ANALYST JUDGMENT: The operational environment has entered a phase of PEAK STRATEGIC COERCION. RF has successfully synchronized the kinetic threat against Kostiantynivka with the diplomatic crisis generated by the conclusion of US-UA talks, which yielded the critical political vulnerability: the stated US requirement for Russian inclusion in the settlement equation. This validates RF's strategy of political paralysis. Immediate and decisive action on C2 coherence (R-22) is required to prevent strategic isolation.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Night conditions continue, favoring UAS and deep reconnaissance activity. No restrictive environmental factors reported.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF (BLUE): Forces remain critically committed in contact. Strategic C2 coherence is now the main threat to operational stability. The conclusion of the Miami talks, while formally productive, has generated the political requirement for Russian inclusion (Rubio statements, 301958Z), providing RF critical political leverage.
• RF (RED): RF C2 is effectively leveraging the diplomatic outcome. Their primary objective remains forcing unfavorable negotiations by maximizing pressure on the key defensive node (Kostiantynivka) while forcing the strategic hand (nuclear proposal, US inclusion demand).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

Intent: Compel favorable peace negotiations by achieving strategic leverage NLT 48 hours through a combination of physical isolation (Kostiantynivka) and forced diplomatic inclusion/Ukrainian political fragmentation.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary adaptation is strategic: RF is maximizing the synchronization between tactical success (Pokrovsk) and high-level diplomatic friction. Kinetically, the commitment of Spetsnaz near Krasny Lyman remains the most significant tactical change, confirming a high-speed fixation intent in the Northeast.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain capable of sustaining current high tempo operations. UAF targeting of the Alabuga facility is a long-term disruption, but the immediate front-line logistics are robust.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective and strategically adaptive, demonstrating immediate tactical awareness and rapid IO response to high-level diplomatic events.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Operational: UAF forces are engaged in critical defensive operations in Donetsk and preparing counter-maneuvers in the Northeast. Strategic C2: The NCA faces a critical two-part crisis:

1. Nuclear Proposal Fallout: Requires immediate resolution (R-22 original).
2. Miami Talks Fallout: Requires immediate diplomatic counter-response to the US/Rubio statement on Russian inclusion and the potential US envoy trip to Moscow. Failure to address this swiftly risks undermining the legitimacy of UAF sovereignty and negotiations.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Technology): Confirmed successful deployment and combat validation of UGV/HMG TTP (301940Z), which offers a low-risk, high-impact method for anti-armor/anti-infantry defense.
• Setback (Diplomatic): The official conclusion of the Miami talks confirmed deep friction ("difficult") and introduced the political demand for Russian inclusion (301958Z), which is a major victory for RF strategic IO.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. Strategic Clarity: Immediate communication from the NCA on both the nuclear proposal and the diplomatic path forward (R-22 modified).
2. Fire Support: R-1A remains overdue to prevent kinetic collapse in Donetsk.
3. UGV/C-UAS Systems: Accelerated deployment of confirmed successful systems ("Sting," UGV TTPs) to threatened sectors (Stepnohorsk, Krasny Lyman).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF immediate IO objective is to establish the narrative of "Peace is Imminent, Kyiv is the Obstacle."

1. US Endorsement: RF channels leverage Rubio’s statements to imply US acceptance of the necessity of RF involvement in a settlement (301958Z, 302000Z).
2. NATO Weakness: UAF channels are relaying reports (Bloomberg) suggesting NATO is preparing for a scenario of limited US support (301942Z), which RF will quickly amplify to damage UAF strategic confidence.
3. Counter-Narrative: Pro-UA channels are attempting to utilize economic hardship IO within occupied DNR (302003Z) to counter the narrative of Russian success, but this does not address the current kinetic/diplomatic crisis.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is at high risk of rapid decline due to the combined effects of the tactical threat (Kostiantynivka) and the perception of diplomatic failure/betrayal (difficulty in talks, potential US envoy to Moscow, and uncertainty surrounding the nuclear proposal).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• US-UA Talks (Miami): Officially concluded. The key takeaway is US Senator Rubio's statement that "Russia must be included in the equation," indicating a substantial diplomatic shift that could undermine UAF negotiating leverage and strategic autonomy.
• NATO Calculus: Reports of reduced US commitment readiness are likely to be exploited by RF to test NATO cohesion.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Diplomatic Compulsion and Kostiantynivka Operational Breakthrough (Confidence: HIGH) RF will use the next 12 hours (NLT 310800Z) to intensify the kinetic effort around Kostiantynivka to create a fait accompli (i.e., severing the main GLOC). Concurrently, RF global diplomatic efforts will prioritize solidifying the narrative of US/international consensus that Russia's inclusion is mandatory, thereby coercing the NCA into entering immediate, unfavorable, mediated negotiations.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Strategic Paralysis and Deep Penetration (Confidence: HIGH) The NCA fails to resolve the twin crises (nuclear proposal ambiguity and the Russian inclusion demand) NLT 310000Z. RF perceives C2 paralysis and executes synchronized kinetic breakthroughs: a rapid mechanized advance in the Borova sector (leveraging the Spetsnaz fixation) and a high-speed envelopment of Kostiantynivka. Strategic reserves remain frozen due to political uncertainty, leading to the collapse of one or both operational sectors.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1A (MODIFIED): IMMEDIATE KINETIC STABILIZATION (J3)

ACTION: J3 must immediately execute the modified artillery/MLRS Fire Plan Delta, prioritizing high-density interdiction along RF avenues of approach into Kostiantynivka GLOC corridors. Confirmation of successful delivery is required NLT 302030Z to support the SKELIA Regiment. PRIORITY: Prevent kinetic collapse in the Donetsk operational area (IMMEDIATE).

R-22 (MODIFIED): STRATEGIC C2 AND DIPLOMATIC COUNTERMEASURE (NCA / J7)

ACTION: The NCA must issue a comprehensive strategic communication NLT 302200Z. This message must simultaneously:

1. Clarify or officially repudiate the Zaluzhny nuclear proposal.
2. Explicitly define Ukraine's sovereign red lines regarding negotiations, specifically rejecting the immediate inclusion of Russia in the settlement process based on RF kinetic gains. Frame the Miami talks as productive towards security guarantees, not capitulation terms. PRIORITY: Mitigate immediate diplomatic risk and prevent strategic isolation (CRITICAL).

R-18 (CONFIRMED): ACCELERATE RESERVE MOVEMENT (J3)

ACTION: J3 must confirm the mobilization and movement of the pre-designated stabilization reserve to the Kupiansk-Izyum GLOC approaches NLT 302200Z to counter the confirmed RF Spetsnaz presence near Krasny Lyman. This unit must be prepared for high-intensity, counter-special forces operations. PRIORITY: Prevent RF from fixing UAF reserves and achieving operational depth in the Northeast (URGENT).

R-24 (NEW): ACCELERATED TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER (J3 / Tech Directorate)

ACTION: Immediately codify and disseminate the validated 5 OShB UGV anti-vehicle TTPs to all Brigades in high-risk sectors (Stepnohorsk, Krasny Lyman). Prioritize providing the necessary hardware and training for remote-weapon station employment to enhance counter-mobility capabilities against RF light armor. PRIORITY: Leverage technological advantage to stabilize secondary axes (URGENT).

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)

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