Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 290435Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL PRIORITY: Immediate confirmation and pre-emptive response to the Huliaipole MLCOA initiation; dynamic re-tasking of AD assets against cruise missile trajectory shift.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

FACT (Kinetic Surge Intensity - CRITICAL): RF Deep Strike operations remain ongoing. The initial BPLA swarm has reduced slightly but remains high (approximately 45 Shahed BPLAs still tracked near Kyiv/Kyiv Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). FACT (Cruise Missile Vector Change): Initial cruise missile launches (confirmed Tu-95MS origin) tracked across Poltavshchyna and Cherkashchyna have now decisively turned toward the Bila Tserkva area (Kyiv Oblast SW). This trajectory targets a critical operational rear area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). FACT (Kinetic Leakage): Confirmed drone damage to residential private sector in the Obolon district of Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). JUDGMENT (HULIAIPOLE STATUS - UNCONFIRMED/CRITICAL): The synchronized maximal kinetic shock on the NCA is achieving its goal of strategic distraction. The preparatory fire window (290445Z-290515Z NOV) for the Huliaipole ground assault is now less than 10 minutes away. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear conditions persist, continuing to facilitate RF deep strike precision and the ongoing high-volume BPLA activity.

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF Air Defense (AD) assets remain at MAXIMUM SATURATION. Critical C2 decisions must be made immediately regarding which threats to prioritize: sustained BPLA attrition (Kyiv), or the maneuvering high-speed cruise missile threat (Bila Tserkva vector).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (FORCE DISPERSION CONFIRMED): RF's current kinetic maneuver is a classic military feint. The high-volume BPLA attack forces C2 saturation at the NCA, while the maneuvering cruise missiles vector toward Bila Tserkva and the SW operational rear, forcing UAF to disperse strategic AD assets away from both the capital and the Zaporizhzhia front. This maximizes the chances of success for the imminent Huliaipole MLCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). CAPABILITY (SUSTAINED IO): RF TASS and associated channels continue to push the "NCA Paralysis" and Yermak resignation narrative, synchronizing the cognitive shock with the kinetic attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2 Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed cruise missile trajectory change (now vectoring toward Bila Tserkva) demonstrates RF capacity for dynamic targeting during a kinetic strike, complicating UAF AD planning.

2.3 Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain strained by UAF counter-strikes (Afipsky NPZ hit, Nizhny Novgorod industrial fire confirmed). However, these degradations are insufficient to halt the immediate Huliaipole assault. RF claimed 103 UAF BPLA intercepts, indicating their readiness to absorb UAF deep strike attempts while executing the current strategic strike. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2.4 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective, demonstrated by the synchronization of the missile vectors, BPLA swarms, and IO narratives leading up to the ground maneuver window.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive Alert 1 (Huliaipole) / Crisis Defense (NCA). READINESS: UAF AD system integrity is severely stressed. Forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector remain on high alert, but critical C2 resources are being pulled north by the strategic attack. Failure to commit strategic reserves to counter-fire within the next 15 minutes risks tactical surprise at Huliaipole.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Kyiv BDA): Confirmed kinetic leakage resulting in damage to residential infrastructure (Obolon).
• Success (Deep Strike): Confirmed successful UAF deep strike campaign, forcing RF to claim a high volume of intercepts (103), and confirmed industrial fire in Nizhny Novgorod.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: CR-2217 (HULIAIPOLE STATUS). ISR confirmation of preparatory fires (0445Z-0515Z) is the single most critical intelligence element for preemptive counter-fire. CONSTRAINT: The commitment of AD interceptors to the sustained BPLA swarm seriously compromises the capacity to engage the faster, maneuvering cruise missiles targeting the operational rear.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is leveraging the Yermak narrative (Political paralysis) and claims of large-scale military-age male emigration (120,000) to achieve maximal demoralization among UAF personnel precisely as the critical kinetic and ground assaults are timed to begin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public anxiety is now extreme due to confirmed casualties, structural damage in the capital, and sustained air raid warnings, amplifying the impact of the NCA paralysis narrative.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF IO successfully linked the Yermak situation to the US peace plan, aiming to signal high-level diplomatic instability, further complicating logistical relief efforts (Konstiantynivka GLOC/Polish crisis).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The decisive moment for Huliaipole is immediate. RF has committed to the strategic shock element, meaning the ground assault is imminent.

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH - Adjusted) RF Vostok Group will initiate concentrated preparatory fires (TOS-2/KAB) between 290445Z NOV and 290515Z NOV. This fire will be synchronized with the cruise missile impacts in the Bila Tserkva area (expected 0500Z-0530Z), maximizing C2 delay. The ground assault on the Huliaipole axis will commence NLT 290500Z NOV.

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: MEDIUM - Retained) UAF C2 nodes in the Bila Tserkva operational rear are successfully degraded by the cruise missile strike. Simultaneously, the Huliaipole assault launches 30 minutes earlier than the MLCOA projection (0430Z), or without discernible preparatory fires, achieving total tactical surprise and severing the Southern Front under the cover of massed KAB/drone strikes against the ammunition-starved 33 OShP.

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J2/NCA COMMAND (C2 & AD OPERATIONS)

• ACTION (PRIORITY 1 - AD DYNAMIC RE-TASKING - EXTREME CRITICALITY): IMMEDIATELY SHIFT AD FOCUS. Reprioritize AD assets to engage the incoming high-speed cruise missiles vectoring toward Bila Tserkva (CR-2223). Reduce BPLA intercept priority temporarily if necessary, to ensure high-value interceptors are reserved for the cruise missile threat in the operational rear.
• ACTION (PRIORITY 2 - IO COUNTER-STRIKE): Disseminate a unified, short audio or video message NLT 290500Z NOV from a confirmed NCA authority denouncing the Yermak narrative and assuring the military that C2 is intact.

2. J3/GROUND FORCES COMMAND (KINETIC DEFENSE)

• ACTION (PRIORITY 1 - HULIAIPOLE COUNTER-FIRE - EXTREME CRITICALITY): AUTHORIZE PRE-EMPTIVE FIRES. If CR-2217 (ISR confirmation) is not received by 290445Z NOV, authorize targeted, pre-emptive MLRS/Artillery strikes on known RF Vostok Group staging areas (e.g., Orekhovo sector jump-off points). Assume RF intent to strike NLT 0500Z.
• ACTION (KONSTIANTYNIVKA - UGV INTERDICTION): Immediately confirm if SOF teams are engaged with Kurier UGV control nodes. If the GLOC remains compromised, divert essential ammunition resupply convoys to hardened, secondary supply routes, even if slower, to avoid ambush during the peak kinetic shock.

3. J6/C4ISR COMMAND (TECHNICAL HARDENING)

• ACTION (C2 VULNERABILITY): Implement immediate redundancy measures for all C2 nodes in the Bila Tserkva sector, assuming a successful kinetic impact during the 0500Z-0530Z window. Ensure tactical fire control communication relies only on hardened or redundant (VHF/UHF) links.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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