Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 290304Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL PRIORITY: Immediate C2 restoration and counter-IO strategy to neutralize RF maximal destabilization effort. Urgent commitment of assets to pre-empt Huliaipole MDCOA, now assessed as the MLCOA.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

FACT (Kinetic Pressure RISING): Confirmed new wave of loitering munitions (BPLA) detected moving towards Kyiv region from Cherkasy and Chernihiv Oblasts (Air Force 290235Z/0236Z/0258Z NOV). This indicates RF intent to maintain and potentially increase kinetic pressure following the initial strikes. FACT (Kyiv Casualties): Confirmed 1 KIA and 8 WIA in Kyiv due to previous RF deep strike operation (KMVA 290241Z NOV). The psychological impact is confirmed and high. FACT (GLOC Criticality RETAINED): The Konstiantynivka railway GLOC remains compromised by Kurier UGVs, fundamentally constraining resupply to Vostok Group (unchanged since 0235Z SITREP).

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear conditions persist across the theater, continuing to favor RF ISR and deep strike operations, including the incoming BPLA wave.

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

JUDGEMENT (STRATEGIC C2 STATUS - FAILURE): The necessary C2 redundancy transition and unified NCA statement recommended in previous SITREPs were not executed by the prescribed deadlines (0230Z/0245Z). This failure confirms that RF hybrid operations have achieved maximal leverage, validating the MDCOA acceleration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DISPOSITIONS: AD assets must be immediately re-tasked to defend Kyiv airspace against the confirmed incoming BPLA wave, potentially drawing resources away from Forward Area Defense (FAD) sectors.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (MAXIMAL EXPLOITATION): RF intention is confirmed to achieve operational breakthrough within the existing political crisis window. The confirmed BPLA follow-on attack and the immediate release of high-impact disinformation (Yermak resignation, 290259Z NOV) are synchronized measures designed to break UAF strategic cohesion just prior to the kinetic breakthrough attempt at Huliaipole. CAPABILITY (SYNCHRONIZED SHOCK): RF is executing a multi-domain shock approach:

1. Physical kinetic assault on the capital (BPLA wave).
2. Political decapitation narrative (Yermak IO).
3. Logistical paralysis (Konstiantynivka UGV interdiction).

2.2 Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The critical change is the immediate kinetic follow-up on Kyiv (new BPLA wave), confirming that the RF decision cycle is accelerated and focused on maximizing the current C2 vacuum. RF is sustaining psychological pressure rather than allowing UAF time for political stabilization.

2.3 Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain adequate to support the immediate ground assault (MDCOA/MLCOA transition) over the next 12-24 hours. UAF deep strikes have not yet critically degraded near-term RF fire capacity.

2.4 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, rapid, and fully synchronized between IO, strategic strike assets, and ground maneuver groups (Vostok Group).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Critical Defense / Crisis Management. The strategic environment is dangerously unstable. READINESS: Tactical readiness at Huliaipole remains dependent on local commanders maintaining initiative, as strategic support (GLOC/Reserves) is severely degraded by ongoing constraints and the C2 failure in Kyiv.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (C2/IO): Confirmed failure to execute necessary C2 and IO countermeasures by the 0245Z window. RF now controls the strategic information narrative.
• Setback (AD Burden): The incoming BPLA wave places immediate strain on AD resources, forcing a choice between critical infrastructure defense and FAD protection.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: TIME. Only 26 minutes remain until the highly likely 0330Z MDCOA initiation window. CONSTRAINT: The political paralysis directly inhibits the rapid allocation of SOF/EW assets needed for Konstiantynivka clearance.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

CORE NARRATIVE: INSTITUTIONAL DECAPITATION. RF IO has introduced the highly destabilizing narrative of a high-level resignation (Yermak, 290259Z NOV). This specific claim is designed to create internal political chaos, paralyze military coordination, and validate the earlier narrative of government collapse or flight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public panic is escalating in Kyiv due to the confirmed KIA/WIA count and the ongoing BPLA threat. Field unit morale is highly vulnerable to the Yermak IO attack, as it suggests the top political leadership is fracturing under pressure.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The primary focus remains internal cohesion. The RF IO pressure on Poland continues to act as a strategic delay mechanism for external support.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH - Transitioned from MDCOA) Given the confirmed failure to stabilize C2 by 0300Z and the sustained kinetic/IO pressure on Kyiv, RF Vostok Group will execute the immediate, unhesitating ground assault on Huliaipole, commencing NLT 290330Z NOV. Pre-assault fires (TOS-2 and massed KAB) will commence immediately (0305Z-0330Z window) to suppress defenses. This will be synchronized with localized Starlink degradation (per Daily Report threat) in the Zaporizhzhia sector.

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: MEDIUM) RF executes the MLCOA (Huliaipole ground assault NLT 0330Z) and simultaneously initiates a decisive, theater-wide Starlink blackout. This total communication denial coincides with a successful breach of the Huliaipole perimeter, allowing RF forces to achieve 15km operational depth NLT 290600Z NOV and sever the Southern Front before the NCA can regain C2 functionality or reposition reserve forces.

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J2/NCA COMMAND (C2 & IO COUNTERMEASURES)

• ACTION (PRIORITY 1 - C2 CRISIS RESPONSE - CRITICAL): IMMEDIATE COUNTER-IO BROADCAST. The President/CinC must release a unified video message NLT 290315Z NOV. The message must explicitly deny the high-level resignation claims (Yermak), confirm the execution of current operational orders (e.g., Afipsky strike), and confirm Vostok Group is fully supported. This is required to mitigate morale collapse before the Huliaipole assault begins. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• ACTION (PRIORITY 2 - IO MITIGATION): J2 PSYOP elements must immediately flood internal media channels (Telegram/Viber) with visual evidence of C2 continuity, focusing on field commanders receiving authenticated orders.

2. J3/GROUND FORCES COMMAND (KINETIC DEFENSE)

• ACTION (HULIAIPOLE - ASSUME ATTACK): AUTHORIZE PRE-EMPTIVE COUNTER-FIRES. Vostok Group Commander must assume the MLCOA (0330Z assault) is running. Immediately authorize deep counter-fire strikes (HIMARS, artillery) on suspected RF Vostok Group staging areas and confirmed TOS-2/KAB launch zones during the 0305Z-0330Z window.
• ACTION (KONSTIANTYNIVKA - DECISIVE KINETIC ACTION): COMMIT ALL ASSETS. J3 must override political constraints and dedicate all available specialized SOF Hunter-Killer Teams and heavy EW assets (regardless of current mission priority) to the Konstiantynivka GLOC. The UGV control nodes must be neutralized before 0400Z.
• ACTION (AD/A2C2): J3/J6 must prioritize tactical air defense for Kyiv and Central Ukraine against the incoming BPLA wave. However, AD assets protecting the Konstiantynivka GLOC clearance operation must be reinforced to ensure success of the UGV clearance.

3. J6/C4ISR COMMAND (TECHNICAL HARDENING)

• ACTION (C2 PROTOCOL): J6 must provide urgent verification of successful switch to Contingency Protocol ECHO (Red Status), prioritizing VHF/UHF command channels for all Vostok Group tactical orders NLT 290315Z NOV. Failure to communicate with 33 OShP tactically before 0330Z risks critical loss of fire synchronization during the assault.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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