Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 290215Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL PRIORITY: Immediate restoration of National Command Authority (NCA) political cohesion; Critical de-confliction of the Konstiantynivka GLOC; Maximum alert status for Vostok Group massed assault on the Huliaipole axis.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

FACT (Deep Strike Continuation): RF operations continue to target the strategic rear, confirmed by administrative updates regarding attacks on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv (KMVA 290140Z NOV). Kyiv remains a decisive cognitive target. FACT (GLOC Criticality): The Konstiantynivka railway GLOC remains operationally compromised by Kurier UGVs, critically constraining supply flow to the Southern Front. FACT (UAF Counter-Kinetic): UAF deep strike operations continue to generate kinetic effects in the RF rear, specifically localizing eight fires in Taganrog following a UAV attack (TASS 290159Z NOV).

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear conditions persist across the theater, continuing to favor RF ISR, KAB, and deep strike operations.

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

JUDGEMENT (C2 STATUS - CATASTROPHIC RISK RETAINED): The public, verified communication of the Head of the Presidential Office (Yermak) regarding deployment to the front line (Operatyvnyi ZSU 290150Z NOV) confirms that the RF hybrid operation has achieved Level 4 Political Destabilization. Strategic C2 integrity is presumed compromised until a unified NCA response is verified. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) DISPOSITIONS: UAF Vostok Group remains in defensive posture around Huliaipole, critically reliant on timely resupply via the interdicted Konstiantynivka GLOC.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (STRATEGIC PARALYSIS & BREAKTHROUGH): RF intent is to achieve two concurrent objectives: (1) Exploit NCA paralysis to trigger international pressure and domestic crisis of confidence, and (2) Accelerate the kinetic breakthrough at Huliaipole before UAF field commands can stabilize or receive clarifying orders. CAPABILITY (IO DOMINATION): RF IO is exploiting the crisis with maximum velocity and synchronization (e.g., TASS immediately linking Yermak's action to US aid audits, 290154Z NOV). This demonstrates RF ability to turn internal political developments into immediate strategic leverage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) LOGICAL NEXUS: The RF Command may perceive the NCA instability as a Decisive Moment, accelerating their kinetic assault timeline to capitalize on UAF administrative shock.

2.2 Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF tactical adaptation is the immediate and effective synchronization of the informational domain with existing kinetic assets. The simultaneous maintenance of GLOC strangulation (UGVs) and deep kinetic strikes (Kyiv) while the IO offensive peaks demonstrates a highly coordinated multi-domain operational design.

2.3 Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain adequate to support sustained deep strike operations and UGV/drone deployment. The UAF deep strike on Taganrog, if targeting RF forward staging or POL reserves, may slightly constrain RF logistical flexibility, but the impact is not yet strategic.

2.4 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, synchronized, and highly responsive to dynamic political events in Kyiv.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Strategic Defense / Political Crisis Management. Resources, especially SOF and EW assets capable of neutralizing UGVs, are urgently required to restore logistical flow. READINESS: Strategic readiness is severely degraded by the lack of visible NCA cohesion and the consequent potential for confused orders and delayed logistical response to Huliaipole.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Political/C2): The Yermak incident confirms the internal political crisis is now public and actively exploited by the adversary, representing a critical failure in strategic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Success (Deep Strike): Successful UAV strike on Taganrog (RF rear) confirms UAF capability to maintain pressure on RF staging areas despite the internal crisis.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Restoration of institutional C2 credibility. Immediate physical security of remaining NCA infrastructure and personnel. CONSTRAINT: Logistical flow to the decisive Huliaipole sector is critically constrained by the Konstiantynivka UGV interdiction, compounded by the political distraction.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

CORE NARRATIVE: "Corrupt Leadership is Fleeing." RF IO is successfully amplifying this by framing the Head of the Presidential Office’s movement as flight or resignation. TASS’s immediate linkage of the event to calls for a US aid audit expands the threat from domestic chaos to international strategic isolation. The aim is to freeze Western military aid decisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public confidence in the government is at a critical nadir. Field unit morale is highly vulnerable, as RF PSYOPs will now focus on messaging that leadership has abandoned them, directly undermining tactical initiative and resilience.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF IO focus on US aid audits (TASS) and alleged internal instability is a direct operational measure designed to paralyze international diplomatic and military support mechanisms. The window for RF to leverage this perceived instability is immediate.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH) RF Vostok Group will maintain high alert status but will delay the massed ground assault on Huliaipole until NLT 290600Z NOV. They will utilize the intervening hours to assess the success of the IO operation (domestic panic, international reaction) and the UAF's ability to demonstrate C2 resilience. Sustained high-intensity KAB and persistent drone strikes will continue across the Zaporizhzhia axis to soften defenses. GLOC interdiction at Konstiantynivka will be sustained and possibly reinforced.

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH - Increased Likelihood) RF assesses that NCA instability is a window of absolute opportunity. The immediate, unhesitating execution of the Vostok Group massed assault on Huliaipole commences NLT 290330Z NOV (30-minute acceleration based on perceived vulnerability). Pre-assault fires (TOS-2 and massed KAB strikes) commence immediately. The objective is to achieve a decisive breakthrough into the Southern operational rear before UAF can coordinate a unified strategic reserve response.

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J2/NCA COMMAND (COGNITIVE DOMAIN & C2 HARDENING)

• ACTION (PRIORITY 1 - COUNTER-PSYOPS/C2 STABILITY): IMMEDIATE JOINT ADDRESS (290230Z NOV). The President and the Commander-in-Chief must jointly issue a statement NLT 290230Z NOV via multiple secure and public channels (broadcast/encrypted radio). The message must be short, forceful, address the political noise directly, and confirm the unified operational chain of command is intact and active. Field units require C2 confirmation, not political justification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• ACTION (PRIORITY 2 - IO MITIGATION): J2 PSYOP elements must immediately execute the prepared "RUSSIAN-LED DECEPTION PROTOCOL." Frame the Yermak narrative as an enemy fabrication designed to mask an imminent kinetic attack on the Southern Front (Huliaipole).
• ACTION (C2 PROTOCOL): J6 must provide confirmation of successful switch to Contingency Protocol ECHO (Red Status), prioritizing VHF/UHF command channels for all operational orders NLT 290245Z NOV.

2. J3/GROUND FORCES COMMAND (LOGISTICAL SECURITY/SOUTHERN FRONT)

• ACTION (KONSTIANTYNIVKA - DECISIVE): IMMEDIATE FORCE RE-TASKING. All available specialized assets (SOF Hunter-Killer Teams, high-powered EW systems) currently diverted to capital defense or non-critical sectors must be immediately re-tasked to the Konstiantynivka GLOC. Objective: Confirmed destruction of UGV control nodes NLT 290400Z NOV. This is a critical prerequisite for Huliaipole survival.
• ACTION (HULIAIPOLE ALERT): UAF Vostok Group Commander must declare MAXIMUM ALERT (Condition RED). All assets must assume the MDCOA (290330Z NOV kinetic initiation) is operative. Pre-position mobile fire support (HIMARS, heavy artillery) to immediately counter-strike confirmed TOS-2/KAB concentration areas upon first detection.

3. J3/AD COMMAND (KINETIC RESPONSE)

• ACTION (AD PRIORITIZATION): Air Defense assets must strictly prioritize the defense of designated C2 redundancy nodes and the Fastiv GLOC. Do not divert high-value SAM systems for decentralized defense of political targets in Kyiv.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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