Sitrep 2025-11-27 18:34:33

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 271845Z NOV 25 OPERATION: STABILIZATION AND COUNTER-EXPLOITATION (Southern and Eastern Axes)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The focus remains on stabilizing the uncontained breach in the Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole) axis. The immediate coordinated deep kinetic threat against Odesa/Mykolaiv has temporarily subsided (Ballistic Threat Abatement confirmed 18:18Z), offering a brief window for UAF AD reconfiguration. The Konstiantynivka GLOC remains the single point of failure for operational reserve deployment, confirmed by successful RF Spetsnaz interdiction (Lt. Col. Zhuravel loss). RF kinetic pressure remains high on the Kharkiv/Vovchansk sector, utilizing high volumes of FAB-UMPK guided bombs (Confirmed Vilcha strikes).

Axis	Status/Focus	Confidence
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole)	UNCONTAINED BREACH / CRITICAL	HIGH
Konstiantynivka GLOC	C2 INTERDICTION / CRITICAL	HIGH
Odesa/Mykolaiv Rear	BALLISTIC THREAT ABATED (TEMPORARY)	HIGH
Kharkiv (Vilcha)	FIXING OPERATION (FAB-UMPK SATURATION)	HIGH

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors

Ground mobility remains highly conducive to RF mechanized exploitation. Airspace remains contested by drones across the front, requiring decentralized C-UAS assets (Confirmed RF success near Orikhiv).

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are in a reactive, ad-hoc blocking posture in Zaporizhzhia. The successful abatement of the deep ballistic threat provides an immediate opportunity to execute planned AD re-tasking (Ref: Prev. ISR Rec B.4) without high kinetic exposure. Low-level unit logistics and reconnaissance asset provision (UAS) remain a critical constraint (Ref: 72 OMBr appeal).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is to accelerate the Huliaipole breach into an operational rupture before UAF reserves can be fully committed via the compromised Konstiantynivka route.

Capability	Detail	Confidence
C-UAS Protection	Confirmed presence and effectiveness of dedicated RF C-UAS assets ("Phoenix" crew near Orikhiv), protecting the advance spearhead.	HIGH
Precision Kinetic Saturation	Sustained and effective use of FAB-500 UMPK (glide bombs) against UAF operational strongpoints (Vilcha, Kharkiv axis), designed to fix Northern UAF units.	HIGH
Deep Strike Coordination (Phased)	The initial coordinated ballistic strike phase has concluded. RF is likely repositioning assets, indicating the deep strike capability is integrated into a phased assault schedule to disrupt specific UAF reaction windows.	MEDIUM

2.2 Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF adaptation involves tighter integration of frontline electronic warfare (EW) and C-UAS to suppress Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance directly supporting the Huliaipole defensive line. This directly exacerbates the UAF's acknowledged UAS/reconnaissance gaps.

2.3 Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF operational logistics are confirmed optimized for exploitation (Mangas/UGV). Strategic logistics supporting the AD/EW umbrella (1488th Regiment) remain robust, allowing RF to simultaneously prosecute two major kinetic efforts (Huliaipole ground, Kharkiv/Vilcha air).

2.4 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF Supreme Command maintains effective strategic sequencing. Localized C2 confusion regarding the Belgorod internet outage is observed but has no discernible impact on frontline operational C2.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture remains critical in Zaporizhzhia, requiring immediate external reinforcement. The reliance on public fundraising for mission-critical reconnaissance assets (72 OMBr, TEIWAZ Group) indicates systemic acquisition failure or extreme delays at the operational level for low-value, high-impact equipment. This must be addressed institutionally.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Domain	Success/Setback	Impact	Confidence
Setback (Logistics/Recon)	Critical funding appeals for frontline UAS (72 OMBr).	Immediate degradation of ISR capability directly over the advancing RF spearhead, increasing risk to UAF forces.	HIGH
Success (AD Status)	Abatement of ballistic threat.	Opportunity to safely re-task AD assets to protect critical C2/Logistics nodes from the expected second wave of deep strikes.	HIGH
Success (Localized Action)	Successful combat actions confirmed by publicly-funded groups (TEIWAZ).	Confirms high effectiveness of decentralized, well-equipped small units.	HIGH

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

The most critical constraint is the speed of reserve deployment combined with the deficit in timely, granular frontline reconnaissance. These two factors amplify the threat of the Huliaipole breach exponentially.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IE)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is currently engaged in a dual-narrative weaponization:

Kinetic Dominance: Amplifying tactical successes (Pokrovsk encirclement, "Otvazhnye" propaganda) to demoralize UAF units and pressure Kyiv into concessions.
Diplomatic Chaos: Framing all Western strategic moves (US peace leak, EU Parliament resolution on asset seizure) as either "abandonment" or "aggression," aiming to isolate Kyiv diplomatically and delay aid transfers.

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

President Zelenskyy’s recent address, emphasizing the balance between defense and diplomatic engagement (18:14Z), attempts to manage domestic and international expectations regarding the "peace plan" discussions. However, ongoing public fundraising appeals undermine the narrative of effective state logistical provision.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The EU Parliament’s move toward utilizing frozen Russian assets is a positive long-term financial indicator (Dempster-Shafer 0.028217). Kyiv must rapidly leverage this European institutional commitment (Ref: Sanctions Summit momentum) to ensure military aid flows immediately to stabilize the Huliaipole crisis.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24 HOURS)

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF Vostok Group will continue exploitation of the Huliaipole breach, aiming to reach the key high ground 10-15 km in depth NLT 280600Z. The relative silence in deep strikes is assessed as a preparatory pause. RF will initiate a renewed, coordinated deep strike campaign (ballistics/loitering munitions) targeting Konstiantynivka GLOC and major C2 nodes NLT 272300Z, coinciding with the window for UAF reserve mobilization (Decision Point 2). RF IO will maintain maximum pressure regarding Pokrovsk/peace talks.

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Unchanged: RF forces breach the 15 km threshold at Huliaipole, establishing direct fires on a critical north-south GLOC, compelling UAF operational commanders to order a broad, unplanned withdrawal along the Southern Donbas Front. Concurrently, RF EW assets achieve operational dominance over the battlefield, rendering UAF reconnaissance drones and C2 ineffective in the breach zone.

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Timeframe (ZULU)	Event/Condition	Required UAF Decision Point
NLT 272000Z	Confirmation of execution of Counter-Interdiction (Rec B.3) on Konstiantynivka GLOC and AD re-tasking (Rec B.4).	Decision Point 1.5 (IMMEDIATE): Divert the most combat-ready SOF team from the Konstiantynivka hunt to escort the advance guard of the primary maneuver reserve.
NLT 272300Z	RF resumes deep strike/EW activity targeting UAF rear areas and GLOCs.	Decision Point 2: If the initial interdiction fails to slow RF tempo, release the final strategic maneuver reserve to establish the Provisional Blocking Position (PBP) 7km behind the current line, as previously planned.
NLT 280400Z	Confirmation of RF success/failure in securing high-value terrain 10km deep (Huliaipole).	Decision Point 3: If terrain is lost, initiate planned tactical counter-attack (Task Force T-HUL) using local reserves NLT 280900Z to prevent establishment of RF lodgment.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

A. TACTICAL EMERGENCY (HULIAIPOLE STABILIZATION)

COUNTER-EW/C-UAS (J6 / J3): PRIORITY AIRSPACE DENIAL. Dedicate an electronic warfare (EW) detachment (e.g., Bukovel-AD) to the immediate flank of the Huliaipole breach to suppress confirmed RF C-UAS activity (Orikhiv sector). This is critical to restore UAF UAS reconnaissance windows before Decision Point 2.
URGENT LOGISTICS INTERVENTION (J4 / MoD): EMERGENCY RECON ASSET PUSH. Bypass existing bureaucratic procurement protocols and execute an emergency procurement order for all necessary small UAS assets (as publicly identified by 72 OMBr and similar units). This order must be prioritized over all non-essential equipment and delivered NLT 280600Z.

B. OPERATIONAL (REAR AREA SECURITY)

AD RE-TASKING (J3 / AIR COMMAND): EXECUTE IMMEDIATE AD SHIFT. Utilizing the temporary ballistic threat abatement window (confirmed 18:18Z), immediately re-task and reposition the identified NASAMS or comparable battery (Ref: Prev. ISR Rec B.4) to defend the approach corridors of the Konstiantynivka GLOC and the regional command post (CP) at Kramatorsk, anticipating the MLCOA kinetic resumption (NLT 272300Z).
GLOC ESCORT (J3): RESERVE CONVOY HARDENING. Due to confirmed Spetsnaz success, mandate that all reserve maneuver units deploying to Zaporizhzhia via Konstiantynivka must employ dedicated, armored counter-ambush/sniper teams (at least one mechanized platoon per battalion maneuver group) to ensure transit security.

C. STRATEGIC/DIPLOMATIC (MAINTAINING COHESION)

DIPLOMATIC C2 (NCA / MFA): PREVENT EU-US FISSURE. In parallel with leveraging the Sanctions Summit for military aid, utilize ongoing high-level dialogue (PM Shmyhal’s NATO visit) to explicitly affirm coordination with European partners regarding the "peace plan" proposal, aiming to stabilize the diplomatic front against RF IO exploitation of the US-EU rift.

CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY:

RF C-UAS effectiveness near Orikhiv: HIGH
Temporary abatement of deep ballistic threat: HIGH
Critical UAF frontline logistics gap (UAS): HIGH
RF adherence to phased kinetic/IO coordination: HIGH

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CRITICAL SHIFT):

PRIORITY 1 (KINETIC - IMMEDIATE): RF DEEP STRIKE RELOAD STATUS. HUMINT/IMINT/SIGNINT required NLT 272200Z to confirm reload/repositioning activity at known ballistic missile launch sites (e.g., Rostov region) to validate the predicted 272300Z kinetic resumption timeline.
PRIORITY 2 (FORCE STATUS): EFFECTIVENESS OF COUNTER-INTERDICTION. IMINT/SOF reporting required NLT 272100Z to confirm the success of the kinetic hunt operation against RF Spetsnaz teams along the Konstiantynivka GLOC and estimate route clearance status.
PRIORITY 3 (TECHNOLOGY): RF EW/C-UAS LOCATIONS. SIGNINT/IMINT required NLT 272000Z to geo-locate RF EW and C-UAS emitters near Orikhiv to inform UAF Fire Command for immediate counter-battery/SEAD targeting.

Situation Report