Sitrep 2025-11-27 17:34:30

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 271735Z NOV 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Axis	Status/Focus	Assessment
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole)	CRITICAL BREACH EXPLOITATION	RF forces are actively exploiting the confirmed flank penetration (Confirmed by UAF Southern Defense Spokesperson). The breach is accelerating, threatening operational depths. DECISIVE POINT.
Donetsk (Pokrovsk)	ACTIVE COUNTER-ASSAULT	UAF forces (SKELYA Regiment confirmed) are successfully clearing territory (11.5 sq km confirmed by Cdr Syrsky), forcing RF to commit operational reserves in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. The FDP is proving kinetically effective.
Northern Sector (Chernihiv)	LOW-LEVEL PROBING	Confirmed slow-moving UAV (likely Shahed or similar reconnaissance platform) tracked near Kryukivka. Assessed intent is harassment or gathering C2/logistics targeting data, not major kinetic action.

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors

Ground conditions remain conducive to mechanized maneuver across the Zaporizhzhia axis. No weather factors currently inhibiting RF air/UAV logistics superiority.

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF control is focused on triage: stabilizing the Huliaipole breach while maximizing the tactical gains achieved by FDP operations in Pokrovsk. RF Vostok Group is demonstrating C2 efficiency by rapidly exploiting the Huliaipole flank failure, forcing UAF to react defensively.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities and Intentions

RF intent remains the immediate operational breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia. The commitment of reserves in Pokrovsk, confirmed by Cdr Syrsky (17:17Z), indicates RF prioritization of holding ground and neutralizing the FDP, even while exploiting Huliaipole.

Capability	Detail	Confidence
Exploitation Tempo	RF forces rapidly transitioned from preparation (KAB/TOS-2) to ground exploitation (16:45Z) following the UAF unit withdrawal.	HIGH
Reserve Management	RF is committing operational reserves to the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis to suppress UAF counter-assaults, fixing those reserves away from the main Huliaipole effort.	MEDIUM
Information Operations (IO)	Continuous public statements by V. Putin (17:22Z, 17:31Z) claiming general success and offering conditional peace dialogue, intended to bolster domestic morale and pressure Kyiv externally.	HIGH

2.2 Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF response to the Pokrovsk clearing operations—committing operational reserves—is a tactical necessity forced by UAF effectiveness, contradicting the RF maximalist claim of total encirclement. This commitment presents a window of opportunity in Pokrovsk.

2.3 Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF strategic sustainment is stable (visa agreements, recruitment drives). Tactical sustainment via heavy-lift drones (Mangas) is facilitating the forward elements exploiting the Huliaipole breach.

2.4 Command and Control Effectiveness

Effective tactical C2 demonstrated in Vostok Group’s Huliaipole exploitation. RF Supreme Command continues to use media statements to dictate the operational narrative and diplomatic demands.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Zaporizhzhia: The posture is degraded. UAF must rapidly establish a blocking position 3-5 km behind the breach line to prevent RF forces from reaching strategic depth and threatening the operational integrity of the Southern Front. Donetsk (Pokrovsk): Posture is effective. Fragmented Defense Protocols (FDP) and decentralized counter-assaults are yielding tangible results (11.5 sq km cleared), proving that local command effectiveness is high. General Readiness: Continued modernization of mobilization systems ("Резерв+") and localized, effective resource acquisition (Polish vehicle procurement) show strong institutional function and community support.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Domain	Success/Setback	Impact
Setback (Huliaipole)	Confirmed, uncontained flank penetration.	Requires immediate, decisive commitment of reserves to stabilize the entire axis.
Success (Pokrovsk)	Clearing 11.5 sq km and forcing RF to commit reserves.	Tactical victory validating FDP. Provides immediate IO material and fixes RF resources.
Success (Diplomatic)	Estonian PM Kallas publicly rejecting a "quick path to peace."	Strong European affirmation against the US peace plan leak, providing diplomatic leverage.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

The critical constraint remains the speed and security of reserve movement along the Konstiantynivka GLOC. Every minute of delay due to RF Spetsnaz interdiction increases the kinetic risk in Huliaipole.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IE)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF propaganda is actively attempting to weaponize internal narratives (migration issues, corruption trials) while emphasizing the "inevitable victory" narrative through presidential statements regarding peace talks. The goal is to pressure UAF into accepting minimal peace terms while the kinetic situation is dire.

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Frontline morale is highly dependent on the immediate outcome at Huliaipole. Leveraging the confirmed success of the SKELYA Regiment in Pokrovsk is essential for internal reassurance and demonstrating resilience amidst setbacks.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The critical development is the hardening of the European consensus against premature peace, exemplified by PM Kallas’s statement (17:24Z). This creates a necessary counter-balance to the leaked US plan and provides a strong foundation for Kyiv to anchor its security needs to its European partners.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24 HOURS)

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF Vostok Group will prioritize aggressive, high-tempo exploitation of the Huliaipole breach, utilizing ground forces (supported by UGV/drone logistics) to expand the penetration to 10+ km depth NLT 280600Z. Simultaneously, RF will reinforce Pokrovsk with committed operational reserves to prevent UAF FDP units from capitalizing further on their 11.5 sq km success. IO efforts will escalate, likely involving highly produced visual material of Pokrovsk to maximize psychological effect.

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF achieves an operational breakthrough at Huliaipole which forces the UAF to execute a deep, rapid, unorganized withdrawal, exposing rear logistical hubs and key C2 nodes (e.g., Kramatorsk). Concurrently, the EU fails to capitalize on the diplomatic window, leading to internal disarray and the effective operationalization of the US unilateral peace plan pressure, cutting off critical heavy armament supply lines.

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Timeframe (ZULU)	Event/Condition	Required UAF Decision Point
NLT 271830Z	Confirmation of the leading RF mechanized unit ID and current depth of penetration at Huliaipole.	Decision Point 1: Final commitment of specific maneuver reserves and assignment of precise blocking positions (e.g., 5-8km behind the current line).
NLT 280000Z	RF attempts to consolidate holding positions within the Huliaipole breach and suppress flanking counter-attacks.	Decision Point 2: Confirmation of containment (Green) or decision to engage the secondary defensive line (Red).
NLT 281200Z	Public communication from major European capitals (Paris/Berlin) regarding the US peace plan.	Decision Point 3: Execute proactive diplomatic outreach to secure independent EU military aid pledges.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

A. TACTICAL EMERGENCY (HULIAIPOLE STABILIZATION)

FIRE SUPPORT SHIFT (J3 / FIRE COMMAND): EXECUTE HIGH-VOLUME INTERDICTION FIRE. Re-task at least 60% of available long-range fire (HIMARS, heavy artillery) to a defined 3km x 5km box west of the confirmed Huliaipole breach (CRITICAL COLLECTION REQUIRED for precise coordinates). Primary target: RF staging/follow-on mechanized reserves and logistical UAV launch/recovery zones.
RESERVE DEPLOYMENT (J3): IMMEDIATE DEPLOYMENT TO BLOCKING POSITION. Commit all available QRF/Reserves (as authorized in previous ISR) immediately to establish a prepared blocking position (PBP) 5-7 km behind the current breach point, utilizing terrain to mitigate RF firepower superiority. Do not commit reserves into the immediate breach fight without established fire support.

B. OPERATIONAL (POKROVSK MAXIMIZATION)

EXPLOIT RF RESERVE COMMITMENT (J3): INCREASE COUNTER-ASSAULT TEMPO. Given that Cdr Syrsky confirmed RF is committing operational reserves in Pokrovsk, instruct FDP units (SKELYA/SSO) to maximize kinetic output and extraction attempts over the next 12 hours while RF attention/resources are momentarily split between stabilizing Pokrovsk and exploiting Huliaipole. Use drone superiority to guide breakout/clearing operations.

C. STRATEGIC/DIPLOMATIC (EUROPEAN ANCHORING)

LEVERAGE EUROPEAN DISCONTENT (NCA / MFA): SOLIDIFY PARIS-BERLIN-LONDON AXIS. Immediately utilize the public statements of PM Kallas and reports of EU planned 'hybrid strikes' (ISR 4.3) to push for the establishment of a formal, independently funded "European Security Guarantee/Aid Mechanism" that operates outside the immediate political risks associated with the US election cycle and peace proposals.

D. COUNTER-INTERDICTION (REAR AREA SECURITY)

GLOC SANITIZATION (J2 / J3): DEDICATED COUNTER-SPETSNAZ OPERATION. Reinforce all QRF teams operating on the Konstiantynivka GLOC with counter-sniper and thermal-equipped UAV patrols. The speed of Huliaipole stabilization hinges on rapid, secure movement through this area. Prioritize elimination of Spetsnaz teams operating against critical bridges and choke points.

CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY:

Huliaipole Flank Penetration: HIGH
Pokrovsk Tactical Success (11.5 sq km cleared): HIGH
RF Commitment of Reserves to Pokrovsk: HIGH
European Resistance to "Quick Peace": HIGH

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CRITICAL SHIFT):

PRIORITY 1 (KINETIC): HULIAIPOLE PENETRATION DEPTH/GEOMETRY. Immediate, high-resolution IMINT/SAR required to define the exact boundaries (flanks) and penetration depth (km) of the RF attack force, and the identification of major armor/mechanized units involved to inform DP 1.
PRIORITY 2 (TECHNOLOGY): UGV/LOGISTICS DRONE C2. Continuous ELINT/COMINT collection on specific RF tactical C2 nets (Mangas hexacopters and Omich UGVs) to develop rapid electronic warfare (EW) disruption techniques against these force multipliers.
PRIORITY 3 (HUMINT/POLITICAL): EUROPEAN INDEPENDENT AID TIMELINE. HUMINT/Diplomatic collection required to ascertain the concrete nature and timeline of the reported EU "hybrid retaliatory strike" or new aid mechanisms to ensure UAF operational synchronization before the onset of 28 DECISION POINT 3.

Situation Report