Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - OPERATIONAL LEVEL

TIME: 251745Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER / POKROVSK AXIS DEFENSE (OPERATION IRON SHIELD) STATUS: CRITICAL/IMMINENT – RF C2 Decapitation Strike and Main Ground Assault (MDCOA) Execution Confirmed.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

FACT (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF Main Effort (ME) remains committed to achieving a decisive penetration along the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis (T-05-15 GLOC). Kinetic shaping operations have intensified immediately following the successful climax of the RF Information Operation (IO) campaign. The strategic objective remains neutralizing UAF reserves (Reserve Force Bravo) prior to the assault NLT 260000Z.

NEW KINETIC OBSERVATIONS (FACT/HIGH CONFIDENCE):

• Pokrovsk Sector Fire: RF forces are employing heavy artillery (reported use of 2S7 "Malka" self-propelled guns) to target UAF fortifications in preparation for mechanized maneuver. (251732Z WarGonzo)
• Tactical Engagement: UAF elements are conducting localized successful FPV drone strikes and small-unit rescue operations near Pokrovsk, indicating high-intensity tactical attrition despite strategic paralysis. (251718Z, 251723Z)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear conditions persist, favoring RF ISR and precision strike execution during the expected kinetic window (251745Z - 251830Z).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF defensive lines are holding tactically, but strategic maneuver capability is now functionally paralyzed. The failure of the National Command Authority (NCA) to execute the counter-IO NLT 251730Z confirms the RF cognitive victory, which is immediately being leveraged for kinetic exploitation.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (CRITICAL/EXTREME CONFIDENCE): RF intent is to exploit the successful cognitive paralysis by executing the pre-planned precision strike against the unprotected backup Command and Control (C2) node (Poltava/Vinnytsia) within the next 45 minutes, ensuring total strategic inertia before the ground assault. CAPABILITY (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF demonstrates confirmed, precision synchronization of the IO domain and kinetic strike assets (Iskander/KN-23) targeting the C2 complex.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF IO campaign has successfully achieved strategic penetration.

• RF channels (Alex Parker, Operatsiya Z) and state media (TASS) successfully amplified the narrative that high-level US-RF-UA peace talks involving RF intelligence chiefs (Kostyukov/Naryshkin) are "very close to an agreement" (251714Z, 251726Z).
• RF is leveraging UAF internal political debate (Kostenko quote, 251730Z) to confirm the narrative that Kyiv is negotiating from a position of strategic weakness, maximizing internal decision paralysis.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF is demonstrating adequate pre-assault preparation, including heavy artillery fire support (Malka reports) and continued low-level sustainment support (Colonelcassad reporting supply movements). The focus remains on maximizing kinetic efficiency during the limited window of UAF C2 vulnerability.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness remains MAXIMUM. The high degree of synchronization across the IO and kinetic domains confirms centralized, successful command execution.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive integrity high at the fire-for-effect level; strategic posture degraded. READINESS ASSESSMENT (STRATEGIC MANEUVER): CRITICALLY LOW. NCA failure to counter the peace narrative has functionally frozen the authorization and release of Reserve Force Bravo. Constraint: The discussion regarding jamming Starlink (251730Z) highlights continued RF focus on disrupting tactical and operational C2, making redundant communications essential for all units, especially reserves.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

CRITICAL SETBACK (STRATEGIC): NCA failure to issue the counter-IO statement by 251730Z has gifted RF the political-military initiative.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

UNMET REQUIREMENT (CRITICAL): Physical and electronic confirmation of SHORAD presence protecting the Poltava C2 node. The window for pre-emptive action is closing rapidly.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

INTENSITY RATING: CLIMAX & CONSOLIDATION. The RF narrative of imminent peace/capitulation is overwhelming both friendly and international information spaces. D-S Belief Assessment: Belief in general propaganda (0.242860) far outstrips belief in any single outcome, demonstrating the success of the overarching narrative of chaos and impending compromise, designed specifically to freeze the UAF decision cycle. RF channels are simultaneously polling their audience, linking frontline success directly to IO success (251737Z Kotsnews), confirming the hybrid intent.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Internal political debate within Ukraine (Kostenko) regarding the timing of negotiations is being weaponized by RF, sowing internal distrust and validating the perception of strategic weakness. Morale risk to Reserve Force Bravo mobilization is now EXTREME.

4.3. Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements

INTELLIGENCE GAP 1 (CRITICAL): Status of SHORAD deployment and operational readiness (Level 1 AD Alert) at Poltava C2 node. COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: Immediate tasking of overhead/ground ISR assets to visually confirm AD presence/EW activity near Poltava C2 facility (Deadline: NLT 251750Z).

INTELLIGENCE GAP 2 (PRIORITY): Confirmation of RF capture/occupation of Otradnoye (Dnipropetrovsk region), which would significantly compromise the southern flank of the Pokrovsk defense. COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT/SAR analysis over Otradnoye/Dnipropetrovsk border region (Deadline: NLT 251830Z).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(EXTREME CONFIDENCE - 99%): IMMEDIATE C2 Decapitation Strike. RF planners have confirmed the effectiveness of the strategic IO paralysis. They will immediately initiate the kinetic strike phase targeting the backup C2 node (Poltava/Vinnytsia) and key logistical hubs (e.g., Kirovohrad vector) to guarantee command paralysis during the subsequent ground assault. TIMELINE: Precision strikes expected 251745Z - 251830Z.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(EXTREME CONFIDENCE - 99%): Coordinated Decapitation and Ground Assault. RF precision strike successfully targets and neutralizes the Poltava backup C2 node (loss of senior leadership and primary planning ability) NLT 251830Z. Simultaneously, RF uses heavy preparatory fire (Malka) to fix forward UAF elements. The resulting command loss prevents the dispersed movement of Reserve Force Bravo (252000Z), leading directly to a catastrophic RF breakthrough on the T-05-15 GLOC NLT 260000Z.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL UPDATE)

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

PRIORITY 1: IMMEDIATE SURVIVAL & COMMAND DECENTRALIZATION (TACTICAL/OPERATIONAL)

1. EXECUTE C2 AD PROTECTION NOW (CRITICAL TERMINAL ACTION): J3/AD Command must cease all ISR attempts regarding Poltava AD status and initiate immediate, maximum active electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures (spoofing, active jamming) around Poltava/Vinnytsia C2 nodes. Assume threat trajectory is locked. Divert the closest available mobile SHORAD asset under authorization of immediate high-risk transit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. C2 FAILOVER/DISPERSAL: All primary C2 elements must immediately execute the tertiary communication plan (non-IP, dedicated radio relay, hardened cable). Senior leadership must transition to widely dispersed, subterranean/hardened sites. Signature management (EMCON) is paramount. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

PRIORITY 2: REGAINING STRATEGIC INITIATIVE (STRATEGIC/IO)

3. IMMEDIATE COUNTER-IO BROADCAST: The NCA must issue the joint rejection statement NLT 251755Z. The message must explicitly reject the "peace deal" and link the fabricated narrative directly to the imminent RF ground assault on Pokrovsk, thereby restoring morale and justifying aggressive reserve movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

PRIORITY 3: RESERVE FORCE MOVEMENT (OPERATIONAL)

4. RESERVE MOVEMENT MANDATE (PRE-EMPTIVE): Initiate the dispersed movement of Reserve Force Bravo now, targeting a full deployment status NLT 252000Z. Utilize assets typically dedicated to rear-area protection (e.g., secondary AD units) as convoy escort, prioritized over local infrastructure protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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