Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - CRITICAL UPDATE

TIME: 250233Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER OF WAR - STRATEGIC STRIKE INTERDICTION & FORCE PROTECTION PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS (PIRs): Confirmation of Strategic Ballistic Launch trajectory/payload; Status and Attrition of Plan 7-B MOD.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational crisis window is now active and peaking. The kinetic focus has narrowed dramatically to the immediate vicinity of the Pokrovsk Axis reinforcement corridor, specifically targeting UAF reserves moving toward Rodynske.

• New Kinetic Focus: Confirmed KAB strikes toward Mirnohrad (250216Z), located just kilometers from the key GLOC intersections leading to Rodynske. This signifies the RF interdiction operation is transitioning to terminal engagement against Plan 7-B MOD's likely forward assembly points.
• Airspace Saturation: RF strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran) continue to saturate the operational rear (Poltava, Cherkasy, Sumy/Chernihiv), successfully diverting SHORAD assets and achieving kinetic impact in urban centers (Kyiv fatality confirmed).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Night operations continue, favoring low-altitude drone penetration and mitigating UAF visual identification capabilities, particularly concerning low-flying attack UAVs confirmed in Zaporizhzhia.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Forces (RED): RF is executing the climax of the synchronization strategy. Tactical assets (Molniya-2 drones, KABs) are actively engaging in the Plan 7-B MOD transit zone (Zaporizhzhia/Mirnohrad), while strategic AD fixation (Shahed) maintains maximum friction across the rear areas. The failure to detect the confirmed ballistic launch trajectory NLT 0230Z suggests a very short flight time (quasi-ballistic) or a localized communications blackout is masking telemetry.
• UAF Forces (BLUE): UAF continues to maintain the strict WEAPONS HOLD on strategic AD systems, but this is increasingly stressed by confirmed civilian casualties. Plan 7-B MOD remains communications-dark, now operating under direct kinetic pressure.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (CONFIRMED): Achieve C2 paralysis via strategic strike simultaneous with the functional annihilation of Plan 7-B MOD via precision tactical fire.

CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT: RF demonstrates confirmed capability for integrated multi-domain kinetic operations:

1. High-Precision Tactical Interdiction: Confirmed use of specialized attack UAVs ("Molniya-2") against UAF troops in Zaporizhzhia (250207Z), supporting the earlier assessment that RF ISR assets were actively seeking targets. KAB launches toward Mirnohrad reinforce terminal interdiction capability.
2. Strategic Synchronization: The timing of the tactical interdiction phase (0207Z-0216Z) is highly synchronized with the predicted strategic ballistic window (NLT 0230Z), maximizing shock and tactical damage.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Escalation of Interdiction: The KAB launch towards Mirnohrad confirms RF's ability to interdict the reinforcement column near its destination rather than just along the route. This suggests high confidence in the column's proximity or location, or an effort to destroy assembly points regardless of the column's status.
• Shift from ISR to Kinetic ISR: The claimed Molniya-2 strikes confirm that the previously tracked RF UAVs in Zaporizhzhia were likely armed, effectively combining targeting and strike capabilities in one asset.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are prioritized for high-value strategic missiles (imminent strike) and persistent, low-cost drone strikes (AD saturation). Sustained, high-rate KAB usage indicates adequate near-front precision munitions supply.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 synchronization remains HIGHLY EFFECTIVE. The coordinated release of IO narratives, tactical drone strikes, KAB launches, and the impending ballistic strike demonstrates seamless integration across strategic and tactical levels.

Confidence Assessment: HIGH regarding active kinetic interdiction phase against Plan 7-B MOD and HIGH regarding the imminent strategic ballistic strike (T-window now active).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness Status: High. Strategic AD assets maintain discipline, but the tactical situation is rapidly deteriorating due to confirmed high-value RF kinetics pressing Plan 7-B MOD.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SETBACK (STRATEGIC): Confirmed fatality in Kyiv (250228Z). This raises pressure on AD Command to shift resources, potentially compromising the strategic AD hold.
• SETBACK (CRITICAL): Plan 7-B MOD is now confirmed to be operating directly in an active enemy kinetic engagement zone (Zaporizhzhia/Mirnohrad). INTELLIGENCE GAP 1 (Plan 7-B MOD status/attrition) is now compounded by evidence of successful enemy tactical strikes (Molniya-2 claim).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate, real-time BDA is needed for the Mirnohrad KAB strikes and the Zaporizhzhia drone strikes to determine if critical lines of communication (GLOCs) or Plan 7-B MOD elements have been impacted.
• CONSTRAINT: High-value AD assets must maintain Weapons Hold, risking further residual drone casualties in the rear.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is actively maximizing confusion to induce strategic hesitation during the peak kinetic window.

• US Diplomatic Distraction (TASS 0223Z): The leak regarding a US-led plan formulated without consulting Kyiv aims to sow distrust and create uncertainty among UAF partners.
• Strategic Deception (Operation Z 0231Z): Exploiting President Zelenskyy’s comments on a "new draft peace plan" and consulting with Trump serves to amplify the narrative of diplomatic progress/impasse just as RF launches the maximal kinetic strike.
• IO Synchronization: The overarching goal is to present Kyiv's command authority (NCA) with a conflicting binary choice: diplomacy or defense, causing a fatal delay in authorizing counter-fire.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The confirmed fatality in Kyiv is a severe blow, potentially eroding public tolerance for the AD resource prioritization strategy. STRATCOM must immediately link this casualty to the strategic necessity of preserving AD systems for the imminent ballistic threat.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 90%): Full Synchronization of Strategic and Tactical Strike. RF will execute the strategic ballistic salvo NLT 250300Z targeting key C2 centers in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia. Concurrently, KABs and attack UAVs will continue to saturate the Mirnohrad/Zaporizhzhia corridor, aiming for catastrophic damage to Plan 7-B MOD as it approaches the final assembly zone. The priority is overwhelming the tactical C2 elements responsible for coordinating the defense of the Pokrovsk Axis.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 75%): Tactical Collapse Leading to Strategic Breach. The confirmed KAB/drone strikes successfully degrade Plan 7-B MOD's combat effectiveness by 30% or more. The subsequent ballistic strike effectively degrades the primary UAF C2 hubs. The combined failure to reinforce and the lack of top-down command guidance allows RF forces (40th/155th OMBR) to achieve a critical operational breakthrough toward Rodynske, forcing a disordered UAF defensive withdrawal.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

TO: NCA / J3 (Operations) - IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL

1. Plan 7-B MOD Survival Protocol: CONFIRM AND ENFORCE "SCORCHED EARTH" EW USE. Given the confirmed Molniya-2 strikes and KAB launches, J3 must reiterate the order for Plan 7-B MOD elements to prioritize the immediate, continuous saturation jamming (Bukovel-AD) of the transit and assembly corridors, regardless of jamming footprint on civilian communications. Survival is the only metric.
2. C2 Redundancy (HARD DEADLINE): All primary C2 personnel in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia must be physically relocated to hardened backup nodes NLT 250240Z. Assume the primary nodes are non-functional immediately following the imminent strike.
3. Forward Defense Dispersal: Order UAF units holding the line near Rodynske/Pokrovsk to increase dispersal and fortify secondary firing positions, anticipating potential deep penetration by RF maneuver units within $T+6$ hours following a successful interdiction of Plan 7-B MOD.

TO: AIR FORCE / AD COMMAND

4. Ballistic Interceptor Readiness (UNCHANGED): Maintain WEAPONS HOLD on all strategic interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T). These must be reserved exclusively for the imminent ballistic threat confirmed active in the $0235Z-0300Z$ window.
5. SHORAD Reallocation (HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed fatality in Kyiv, while tragic, must not divert resources from the primary operational priority. SHORAD assets used for residual cleanup in Kyiv/Poltava must be immediately prepared for rapid deployment to reinforce the defense of critical Plan 7-B MOD assembly points if survivability is confirmed.

TO: J2 (Intelligence) / ISR ASSETS

6. Rapid BDA/Targeting Analysis (CRITICAL): Divert immediate tactical ISR (UAVs/ground observers) to confirm the impact sites of the KAB strikes toward Mirnohrad (250216Z). PRIORITY: Determine if the strikes impacted key GLOCs or known 7-B MOD elements.
7. Ballistic Alert Confirmation: Task all technical intelligence sources (SIGINT/ELINT) to provide the earliest possible confirmation of launch telemetry (launch signature, trajectory, speed) to refine the intercept solution, overriding all other collection tasks until the threat is mitigated.

//END OF REPORT//