Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - OPERATIONAL COLLAPSE PHASE (UPDATE 5)

DTG: 232353Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 232315Z NOV 25 – 232353Z NOV 25 OVERALL THREATCON: CRITICAL/TERMINAL STRIKE IMMINENT (T-7 Minutes to NLT 240000Z Impact)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational environment remains defined by the terminal phase of the synchronized RF hybrid attack. The strategic decision window for the deployment and dispersal of Plan 7-B MOD has fully closed. Intelligence confirms the RF is currently executing a combined kinetic-cognitive saturation effort, utilizing low-value UAVs to distract Air Defense (AD) assets immediately preceding the massed ballistic missile strike package (anticipated arrival NLT 240000Z). The immediate objective is zero-hour survival and preparing for post-impact continuity of command.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis: GLOC M-30/T-05-15 severance remains the primary ground objective for RF forces. The lack of reserve movement ensures the immediate tactical situation favors RF exploitation post-strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk C2 Sector: Now the primary target for the imminent ballistic strike package. RF has initiated a drone wave targeting this area (Synelnykivskyi district), confirming intent to saturate AD.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, stable conditions persist, offering optimal conditions for RF precision strike and reconnaissance. No atmospheric interference is predicted for the terminal guidance phase.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF is executing the coordinated final phase of the deep strike operation, characterized by synchronized IO amplification and kinetic AD saturation (UAVs). UAF: Plan 7-B MOD reserve components are presumed static and fixed. No confirmation of the previously recommended decentralized dispersal has been received. C2 is currently facing maximum cognitive and kinetic pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

Capability: RF maintains maximum capability for a synchronized hybrid attack culmination (Kinetic Ballistic Strike + AD Saturation + C2 Paralysis). Intention (Next 7 Minutes):

1. AD Saturation: Utilization of low-value UAVs (Shahed/Geran) traveling toward Dnipropetrovsk to force UAF AD engagement procedures, depleting interceptors or diverting attention from the high-value ballistic threat.
2. IO Paralysis: Further amplification of the "Geneva Framework" narrative via state media (TASS) to confirm NCA focus remains externally/politically paralyzed until impact.
3. Strategic Strike Execution: Guaranteed arrival of massed Ballistic Missile Strike Package (Iskander/KN-23 likely) NLT 240000Z. (CONFIDENCE: ABSOLUTE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed deployment of UAV waves towards critical C2/staging areas in Dnipropetrovsk (23:23:30Z) is the key tactical adaptation in this period. This confirms the RF strategy to maximize the success of the ballistic strike by using expendable assets for terminal AD suppression/diversion.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment is irrelevant for the next 7 minutes, as the operation is kinetic strike culmination. RF AD posture around launch sites (1st AA Regt) remains elevated.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 synchronization remains HIGHLY EFFECTIVE. The precision timing of the new UAV launch and the TASS IO amplification confirms successful multi-domain orchestration leading up to the zero hour. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Static and critically exposed, especially within the strategic reserve staging areas. READINESS: Tactical readiness for post-strike damage control and immediate operational pivot is paramount. Pre-impact C2 is likely non-functional due to IO and kinetic pressure.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setback: Failure to confirm dispersal of Plan 7-B MOD components means the operational setback is now confirmed and irreversible before the strike.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Terminal defense procedures executed immediately. The requirement for decentralized command (J3/Field Commanders) has shifted from movement authorization to Post-Impact Continuity of Operations (COOP). CONSTRAINT: T-7 minutes to strike impact. Time is zero.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO campaign has reached peak effectiveness. New TASS reports (23:23:21Z, 23:27:16Z) falsely claim that the US/UA agree that the "settlement plan answers Ukrainian interests" and that consultations will continue. Impact: This highly dangerous and specific narrative is timed to fix the NCA's attention on an external diplomatic crisis, preventing any last-minute defensive action or C2 clarification before the kinetic attack.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The confusion generated by the synchronized IO campaign combined with new air raid alerts (UAVs) achieves tactical confusion. The psychological goal of diverting focus from the true, high-value threat (ballistic missiles) to the low-value threat (UAVs) is being met.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF IO is achieving strategic isolation of the UAF NCA, suggesting diplomatic efforts are overriding kinetic necessity, thereby justifying the RF strike as a necessary "pre-emptive" measure against supposed diplomatic failures.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 15 Minutes

(ABSOLUTE CONFIDENCE)

1. Terminal Attack: NLT 240000Z, the high-volume ballistic strike package impacts C2 nodes (Dnipropetrovsk/Chernihiv) and the stationary Plan 7-B MOD staging areas.
2. Immediate BDA/Exploitation Prep: RF ISR assets immediately commence Battle Damage Assessment (BDA).
3. IO Shift: RF narratives immediately pivot from "Peace Plan" success to justifying the strike as a response to UAF "escalation" or "terrorist acts," dependent on BDA results.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(ABSOLUTE CONFIDENCE) The successful destruction of static UAF strategic reserves (Plan 7-B MOD) and the decapitation of high-level C2 infrastructure prevents any coordinated operational counter-move. This enables the RF 40th/155th OMBR to rapidly complete the severance of the M-30 GLOC at Rodynske, leading to the collapse of the Pokrovsk axis forward defense and creation of a catastrophic breach line.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The primary mission for the next 7 minutes is Terminal Survival. The primary mission post-impact is Decentralized Continuity of Operations (COOP).

1. AIR DEFENSE COMMANDERS (IMMEDIATE: T-7 MINUTES): ABSOLUTE PRIORITY SHIFT.

   • Action: All Patriot, SAMP-T, and high-value interceptor systems must cease engagement with UAVs (Shahed/Geran) immediately. Conserve all remaining interceptors solely for the NLT 240000Z ballistic incoming wave. Accept limited damage from the Shaheds to save strategic C2 nodes and reserves from ballistic decapitation.
   • Rationale: The UAVs are a low-value decoy designed to deplete or distract our high-value AD assets. Prioritize survival against the threat that will induce operational collapse.

2. J3/OPERATIONAL COMMANDERS: INITIATE COOP PROTOCOLS NOW.

   • Action: Assume the strategic strike will be 80%+ effective against central fixed C2 infrastructure. All Field Commanders, including those commanding static Plan 7-B MOD assets, must immediately activate backup C2 systems and prepare to operate under decentralized, pre-approved rules of engagement (ROE) for 6 hours post-impact.
   • Rationale: Pre-emptively establishing command continuity mitigates the paralyzing effect of a successful C2 strike.

3. STRATCOM/NCA: FIREWALL THE INFORMATION SPACE.

   • Action: Issue an immediate, 30-second emergency alert via all channels explicitly naming the TASS claim as "Falsehood and Enemy Deception." State clearly that this IO is synchronized with the imminent missile bombardment (NLT 240000Z). Do not elaborate; only state the denial and the kinetic threat.
   • Rationale: The time for diplomacy is over; the time for crisis clarity is now. The goal is to break the cognitive link between the IO and the strike, protecting remaining decision-makers from psychological paralysis.

//END SITREP//