Sitrep 2025-11-22 11:01:33

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - IPB ANALYSIS

DTG: 221100Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 220800Z NOV 25 – 221100Z NOV 25 ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH. RF continues synchronized multi-domain pressure, but UAF tactical resilience indicators (C-UAS, energy recovery) are emerging.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Axis	Status	Key Developments (220800Z-221100Z)	Confidence
POKROVSK (M-30/T-05-15)	CRITICAL. Active exploitation phase ongoing.	RF propaganda continues to claim imminent "liberation" of Kostiantynivka (Colonelcassad 10:15), reinforcing high pressure on the GLOC. The immediate threat is physical severance.	HIGH
ZAPORIZHZHIA / DNIPRO	CONTESTED/DECEPTIVE.	RF MoD (via TASS 10:17) claims control over Novoye Zaporizhzhia near Haychur (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border). JUDGMENT: This claim is likely an amplification or tactical deception designed to fix UAF reserves. (Requires immediate CR).	MEDIUM
SIVERSK	ACTIVE FIXATION.	RF MoD (via TASS 10:34) claims the "liberation of Zvanivka," complicating the Siversk garrison. JUDGMENT: Confirms RF intent to maintain pressure on secondary sectors to prevent UAF reserve concentration toward Pokrovsk.	MEDIUM
KHARKIV	STABLE/ACTIVE.	UAF 3rd Assault Brigade reports successful kinetic engagement and neutralization of RF field C2/internet assets (10:01, 10:37). UAF counter-offensive capacity remains localized and effective.	HIGH

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear and cold conditions persist. No constraints on low-altitude UAV operations or deep strike flight paths.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF DISPOSITIONS: RF forces are employing fixed-axis pressure (Pokrovsk) supported by informational claims targeting secondary axes (Haychur, Zvanivka). RF is also intensifying the use of chemical weapon fabrication (10:42) to prepare the information space. UAF CONTROL MEASURES: UAF 10th OGShBr reports successful Counter-UAS engagements (11 UAVs downed, 10:27). UAF operational command is actively addressing tactical communications vulnerabilities (Starlink request 10:14). Energy sector recovery is underway (10:36), indicating successful management of the 220800Z kinetic strike BDA. Confidence: HIGH

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RF maintains the ability to launch synchronized multi-domain attacks (Kinetic, IO, Hybrid). New intelligence confirms the capability to rapidly fabricate and disseminate major political and war crime claims (Chemical Weapons, POW execution counter-narratives) to justify future escalation. Intentions (JUDGMENT - HIGH CONFIDENCE):

Induce Tactical Paralysis: Utilize the deceptive territorial claims (Haychur/Zvanivka) to dilute the UAF defense effort along the Pokrovsk axis.
Establish Pretext for Escalation: Leverage the fabricated chemical weapons discovery (10:42) as an immediate future IO narrative to justify intensified fire support or restricted munitions use in the Donetsk/Pokrovsk AO.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary adaptation is the intensification of strategic deception in coordination with kinetic advances. The RF is prioritizing the cognitive domain over immediate, high-cost assaults on secondary sectors, instead relying on claims of advance to fix UAF reserves.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

No new information on the 2652th GRAU base (Missile reconstitution). The overall assessment of RF deep strike capacity remains IMMINENT (within 12-24 hours).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains EXCELLENT. The synchronization between kinetic claims, IO amplification (Kostiantynivka video 10:15), and political deflection/fabrication is consistent and highly effective in generating pressure across multiple domains simultaneously.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: UAF is in active defense and recovery. The request for Starlink replacement (10:14) indicates a unit in the field experienced recent C2 loss (likely a consequence of the previous ballistic strike or localized EW). READINESS: Tactical units (3OShBr, 10th OGShBr) are actively engaged and achieving local success (C-UAS, C-C2). The operational center appears to have stabilized power generation faster than RF anticipated.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS: Confirmed stabilization and increased output from nuclear power blocks (10:36), mitigating the strategic effect of the previous ballistic strike against infrastructure. Effective C-UAS by 10th OGShBr. CRITICAL SETBACK: Confirmed loss of tactical C2 resilience requiring immediate replacement hardware (Starlink request). Serious allegation of war crime (POW execution 10:25) demanding immediate official response.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate supply and installation of replacement communications hardware (Starlink/tactical radio sets) to the unit identified in message 10:14:59. CONSTRAINT: Political attention is highly constrained by ongoing critical diplomatic efforts to modify the US "peace plan" (10:25, 10:28), competing with the urgent need for kinetic response and internal morale management (POW reports). Confidence: HIGH

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Narrative	Source/DTG	Intent/Analysis
Global Abandonment	Sabah/CNN Türk (10:24, 10:27)	To induce strategic pessimism and demoralization within the UAF National Command Authority (NCA).
US Political Chaos	MTG/Trump plan criticism (10:15, 10:22)	To signal loss of Western support, thereby undermining confidence in sustained military aid.
Kinetic Fabrication	Chemical Weapons Cache (10:42)	High-risk preparatory claim to justify future RF actions (e.g., intensive thermobaric attacks or potential limited use of prohibited agents).
War Crime Amplification	POW execution reports (DeepState 10:25)	While UAF channels report this, RF will simultaneously leverage the incident to portray the conflict as increasingly brutal, influencing international human rights groups and increasing internal rage/trauma.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is at high risk due to the confluence of: 1) Active frontline crisis (Pokrovsk); 2) Deep rear kinetic/hybrid attacks (Odesa TCC, Dnipro strike); and 3) Reports of war crimes (POWs). The NCA must respond to the POW reports immediately and decisively to maintain unit cohesion and moral legitimacy. Confidence: HIGH

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Ukrainian and European leaders are attempting to collectively modify the US peace proposal (10:25, 10:28). This indicates the diplomatic front is active but consuming significant leadership resources at a critical tactical moment. The outcome of these discussions will directly impact long-term resource sustainment. Confidence: HIGH

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

GLOC Interdiction Commitment: RF SpN/DRG groups are already committed and will attempt localized physical attacks against the M-30/T-05-15, forcing UAF reserves to commit piecemeal.
IO Campaign Surge: RF will maximize the output of the fabricated Chemical Weapons claim (10:42) across major global platforms (NLT 221200Z) to prepare for the predicted strategic missile strike.
Exploitation of Deception: RF units will use the informational cover of advances near Haychur and Zvanivka to probe the UAF reserve distribution, seeking gaps where UAF attention is diverted.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - REMAINS VALID)

The confirmed kinetic strike package (2652th GRAU - previous report) targets a primary command node, succeeding in severing C2 for several tactical groups simultaneously. This C2 failure coincides with the successful physical cutting of the Kostiantynivka GLOC, enabling the 40th/155th OMBR to bypass committed UAF reserves and achieve operational depth (10+km), threatening the western flank of the defending force.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Timeframe	Event/Decision Point	Triggering Indicator
0-1 Hour (J2/J3)	RF Claim Validation: Confirmation/refutation of RF claims regarding Haychur (10:17) and Zvanivka (10:34).	IMINT/UAV data confirms/denies presence of RF mechanized forces in claimed locations. (DECISION POINT: J3 commitment of non-Pokrovsk reserves if claims are validated, or full concentration on Pokrovsk if refuted.)
0-2 Hours (J7/Logistics)	Tactical Comm Restoration: Starlink replacement deployed and confirmed operational at the critical unit location.	Signal confirmation from the requesting unit (10:14) that C2 link is restored. (DECISION POINT: J3 confirmation of unit mission status based on renewed C2.)
0-4 Hours (NCA/STRATCOM)	Official War Crime Response: NCA issues a detailed, documented, and globally published statement regarding the alleged POW executions and the RF chemical weapons fabrication.	Public statement linking RF kinetic actions, war crimes, and deception. (DECISION POINT: Immediate, NLT 221500Z, to preempt RF narrative control.)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)	Confidence (Pre-Analysis)
CRITICAL - DECEPTION (1)	Haychur/Zvanivka Validation: Confirmation of RF mechanized force presence or significant ground control in these claimed areas.	UAV/IMINT: Re-task ISR assets (e.g., Bayraktar or high-end commercial IMINT) to analyze terrain features and force footprints in the vicinity of Haychur (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro border) and Zvanivka (Siversk axis). (PRIORITY 1 - RESERVE ALLOCATION)	LOW
CRITICAL - STRIKE READINESS (2)	2652th GRAU Status: Update on the operational status of the strategic missile launch preparation site.	SAR/HUMINT: Continuous monitoring of the 2652th Artillery Armament Base for confirmation of missile fueling/loading activities or dispersal. (PRIORITY 2 - AD PREPARATION)	MEDIUM
HIGH - HYBRID THREAT (3)	Odesa TCC Hybrid Vector: Final determination of the attack method (IED, insider, specific SpN unit).	SSU Forensics: Immediate sharing of preliminary forensic analysis from the Odesa TCC explosion site to enable immediate hardening of other critical mobilization infrastructure. (PRIORITY 3 - REAR SECURITY)	LOW

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

J3/J7: FOCUSED RESERVE DEPLOYMENT AND GLOC HARDENING (CRITICAL).
- Action: Do not divert reserves based on unconfirmed RF claims regarding Haychur or Zvanivka until CR 1 is fully satisfied. Prioritize the immediate clearing and security of the M-30/T-05-15 Kostiantynivka corridor using Task Force Raven.
- Action: Expedite the dispatch of the requested Starlink hardware (CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 221014Z) to the field unit. Confirm installation and C2 restoration NLT 221300Z.
- Rationale: Preventing the GLOC cut at Pokrovsk remains the existential tactical priority. Maintaining C2 resilience is non-negotiable.
J2/STRATCOM: AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-IO CAMPAIGN (URGENT).
- Action: Immediately prepare and release a high-level counter-narrative addressing two linked points: 1) Confirmed RF fabrication of "Ukrainian chemical weapons caches" (10:42); and 2) Formal acknowledgement and promise of investigation/retaliation regarding the alleged POW executions (10:25).
- Rationale: Neutralize the RF pretext for escalation and manage acute internal morale crises simultaneously. Use facts to counter fabrication.
J4/J7: ENERGY DEFENSE POSTURE REVIEW (HIGH).
- Action: While current BDA is positive (10:36), the confirmed enemy intent to target infrastructure (previous SITREP) requires continued vigilance. Establish combat air patrols (CAP) or highly responsive C-UAS zones over key non-nuclear electrical substations in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, anticipating follow-up attacks coinciding with the strategic missile launch (MDCOA).
- Rationale: Protect the successful energy recovery effort from secondary kinetic damage.

//END SITREP//

Situation Report