Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - IPB ANALYSIS UPDATE

DTG: 220600Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 220430Z NOV 25 – 220600Z NOV 25 ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH. The RF strategic paralysis campaign (Pokrovsk assault, hybrid terror, IO synchronization) remains on the imminent timeline. New intelligence confirms UAF advanced SHORAD deployment and heightened capital security protocols.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

STATUS: POKROVSK AXIS: ACTIVE EXPLOITATION CONTINUES. The Krasnoarmeysky direction remains the focus of RF ground maneuvering, driving the critical threat to the Kostiantynivka GLOC. KEY TERRAIN: The immediate threat window (0-2 hours) for Spetsnaz/DRG interdiction of the Kostiantynivka GLOC is currently active.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear and cold conditions persist. Favorable for continued high-altitude ISR and kinetic drone operations. No significant changes affecting the operational tempo.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF DISPOSITIONS: Assessed elements of the 'Center' Group continue mechanized exploitation west of Mirnohrad. Strategic missile assets at 2652th GRAU remain in the assembly/preparation phase for the MDCOA. UAF CONTROL MEASURES (NEW):

• Kyiv Security Protocol (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Temporary road restrictions imposed in central Kyiv due to unspecified "security operations." This indicates an elevated capital defense posture, likely pre-positioning against anticipated strategic strikes or potential follow-on hybrid/sabotage actions (consistent with the Odesa TCC profile).
• AD assets maintain pre-positioned ABM posture.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains the ability to synchronize decisive kinetic action (missile strike) with strategically impactful political and psychological operations. Intentions (JUDGMENT - HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF intent remains achieving strategic paralysis through simultaneous military and cognitive pressure.

1. MDCOA Execution (12-24 hours): Strategic missile strike wave (2652th GRAU assets) targeting infrastructure/C2 nodes.
2. Cognitive Interdiction (IMMEDIATE): Intensify IO campaign (diplomatic friction/abandonment narrative) to maximize internal political "srach" and public demoralization prior to the main strike. (Reinforced by TASS messaging.)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No new tactical changes on the ground reported in the last 90 minutes. The RF focus has shifted slightly in the information domain: INFORMATION LEVERAGE (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF state media (TASS) is actively pushing the narrative that the Ukrainian NCA is "bluffing" regarding peace negotiations, specifically targeting President Zelensky's credibility to the international audience and undermining domestic confidence in the nation’s ability to secure Western support.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The critical logistical indicator remains the preparation of the strategic missile package at 2652th GRAU. The overall logistics posture supports the anticipated MDCOA timeline.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, rapidly integrating high-level diplomatic friction narratives (TASS claims) into the psychological warfare campaign concurrent with ground maneuvering and strike preparation.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: AD posture is evolving. Confirmation of new advanced Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) deployment. READINESS: Internal security readiness in Kyiv is demonstrably heightened (traffic restrictions), validating the need for proactive counter-hybrid measures in critical urban areas.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS (TECHNOLOGICAL): Adversary sources confirm the sighting of the MSI-DS Terrahawk Paladin self-propelled anti-aircraft gun (SPAAG) system on the battlefield. This highly mobile system is optimized for countering low-flying threats (UAVs, cruise missiles), a significant enhancement to layered AD capability. SETBACK: The strategic-level psychological setback from the Ternopil tragedy (32 fatalities) continues to divert resources and attention.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate constraint is optimizing the new SHORAD assets to preserve high-value ABM interceptors for the MDCOA, while simultaneously managing the escalating internal security demands (TCCs, capital defense).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

ACTIVE CAMPAIGN (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF IO is currently driving the narrative of:

1. Political Weakness: Claiming UAF NCA is seeking a "better deal" from a "losing position" (TASS quoting Trump).
2. Military Inevitability: Asserting ground success in the Pokrovsk direction.
3. Domestic Terror: Exploiting the Ternopil and Odesa TCC incidents.

• Net Assessment: The IO campaign is fully synchronized and designed to maximize decision-making paralysis in the next 6 hours, leading into the strategic strike window.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The need for an urgent, comprehensive counter-narrative (STRATCOM/NCA) to address the compounding terror attacks and political friction remains CRITICAL. The lack of a rapid counter-response in the current 0-6 hour window risks rapid demoralization.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The TASS message confirms that the perception of political friction regarding conflict resolution (The "Trump Plan" rumors) is being weaponized by the RF to enhance the feeling of abandonment among the Ukrainian public and political elite.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. GLOC Interdiction (IMMINENT): RF Spetsnaz/DRG will attempt kinetic action on the Kostiantynivka GLOC between 220600Z and 220800Z to disrupt UAF reserve deployment into the Pokrovsk sector.
2. IO Escalation: Aggressive dissemination of diplomatic friction/capitulation narratives, aimed at maximum psychological effect before the missile strike.
3. Tactical UAV Recon: Pre-strike reconnaissance flights targeting C2 and infrastructure nodes, potentially testing the new AD deployments.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12-24 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Strategic Paralysis)

The synchronized Strategic Missile Strike Wave (anticipated 220600Z – 221800Z) remains the MDCOA. Targets will likely prioritize compounding previous terror effects (Ternopil/Odesa regions) and critical C2 nodes in the capital (Kyiv), simultaneously with a critical push by 40th/155th OMBR in the Pokrovsk axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. AIR FORCE/J7: RAPID SHORAD INTEGRATION AND DEPLOYMENT (FORCE MULTIPLIER).

   • Action: Immediately verify the operational status and location of the newly sighted Terrahawk Paladin systems. Task them (and other highly mobile SHORAD) to establish a layered defense screen specifically around high-value ABM sites (Patriot/SAMP-T) and strategic energy infrastructure (Category 1).
   • Rationale: Maximize the efficiency of new NATO-standard anti-UAV systems to conserve high-value interceptors (ABMs) for the anticipated ballistic and long-range cruise missile component of the MDCOA.

2. J3/J4: DEFENSIVE FIRE FOR GLOC SECURITY (AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-SPN).

   • Action: Task Force Raven must initiate aggressive, pre-emptive fire sweeps in the 5km vicinity of the Kostiantynivka GLOC immediately (NLT 220700Z). Utilize artillery and EW jamming to deny RF Spetsnaz/DRG maneuverability and communication.
   • Rationale: Prevent physical severance of the main operational supply route during the critical 0-2 hour window.

3. STRATCOM/NCA: IMMEDIATE NATIONAL UNITY ADDRESS (D-IO Countermeasure).

   • Action: NCA must deliver an urgent, televised address within the next four hours. This statement must directly address the TASS diplomatic fiction while focusing on national resolve against state terrorism (Ternopil casualties) and reaffirming sovereign control over Ukraine's political trajectory.
   • Rationale: Counter the synchronized RF IO designed to achieve psychological collapse and prevent internal political fracturing ("srach") before the strategic missile strike hits.

4. J2/INTERNAL SECURITY: CAPITAL AND TCC FORCE PROTECTION (LEVEL DELTA).

   • Action: Formalize the security posture of Kyiv C2 and administrative centers, and all Category 1/2 TCCs nationwide, to Condition DELTA (Maximum Force Protection). The Kyiv internal security measures must be mirrored across all major command centers. Deployment of EOD and anti-drone patrols must be maintained against further sabotage vectors (Odesa TCC profile).
   • Rationale: Prevent further internal sabotage that destabilizes the mobilization and command structure concurrent with the strategic missile threat.

//END SITREP//