Situation Report

TACTICAL AND OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 032000Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 031900Z NOV 25 – 032000Z NOV 25 ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Pokrovsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast): CRITICAL SECTOR.

• RF forces have confirmed penetration and are attempting to entrench within the southern quarters of Pokrovsk (as per previous daily report and RF source footage targeting a locality sign possibly reading 'МИРНОГ', suggesting proximity to the Myrnohrad axis or Mirnohrad district of Pokrovsk).
• Actionable Intelligence: Confirmed RF drone footage over a heavily damaged settlement near Pokrovsk ("Красноармейск - Динасовый посёлок") validates the high intensity of the urban battle and RF reconnaissance/fire control capability in this newly contested zone. (FACT - RF Footage / HIGH CONFIDENCE)

Kupyansk Axis (Kharkiv Oblast):

• Area remains highly contested. RF IO and media are pushing narrative of UAF FPV strikes against non-combatants/surrendering personnel near Kupyansk, attempting to generate negative IO leverage. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT: Strike confirmed, intent is IO leverage. HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Low-light/night conditions persist, favoring RF logistical movements (thermal footage of a tracked vehicle near the Southern Front) and continued large-scale UAV/FPV operations by both sides.
• UAF Air Force alerts confirm renewed RF Shahed/Geran-2 UAV activity across Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv Oblasts, indicating multi-vector deep strike attempts continue to exploit night cover.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF AD Posture: New UAV groups are detected:
  • UAVs on the eastern and central axis of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, course west/north-west (toward Zaporizhzhia City or Dnipro). (FACT - UAF AF Alerts / HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAVs on the northeast Chernihiv Oblast, course southwest (toward Mena). This opens a northern-central vector, potentially targeting Kyiv's periphery or critical infrastructure (CI) in the Chernihiv region. (FACT - UAF AF Alerts / HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Fire Control: Repeat launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) reported over Donetsk Oblast, continuing the RF air denial campaign and softening UAF defensive positions, particularly in proximity to Pokrovsk. (FACT - UAF AF Alerts / HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:

• Urban Assault Proficiency: RF forces have successfully inserted into Pokrovsk's built-up area and established a foothold, demonstrating tactical capability to transition from frontal assault to urban combat.
• Integrated Fires and Reconnaissance: RF forces are leveraging precision glide bombs (KABs) and persistent UAV/FPV coverage (as seen in the numerous tactical strike videos) to suppress UAF positions and interdict ground movement effectively.
• Multilayer Deep Strike: RF continues to demonstrate the ability to launch synchronized deep strikes on both central (Zaporizhzhia) and northern (Chernihiv) axes, stretching UAF AD resources.

Intentions:

1. Exploit Pokrovsk Penetration: RF primary intent is to consolidate and expand the breach in southern Pokrovsk to destabilize the entire Donetsk front line.
2. Disrupt Reserves and CI: RF secondary intent is to employ UAVs to degrade CI (power/rail) and logistics capacity in central and northern Ukraine to prevent UAF reserve accumulation.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The shift from generalized shelling to confirmed infantry and drone presence inside Pokrovsk's southern quarters is the most significant tactical adaptation, requiring UAF to shift from linear defense to distributed urban area defense (DAD) doctrine. RF's documented use of drones against individuals attempting to surrender/flee (Kupyansk axis video) indicates a cynical adaptation of IO/PSYOPS to deter UAF forces from attempting capture, and to maximize perceived brutality.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF deep strikes on the Tuapse oil terminal (previous report) and the SSO strikes on the Dovzhansk POL site and Rozkishne MTS depot (previous daily report) collectively impose strategic and operational strain on RF sustainment. However, localized logistical supply lines supporting the Pokrovsk assault appear functional, evidenced by the sustained intensity of the urban attack.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, coordinating simultaneous deep strike operations (UAVs in Zaporizhzhia/Chernihiv) with intense close combat (Pokrovsk KAB strikes and ground forces).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Pokrovsk: UAF 68th Jaeger Brigade is engaged in critical urban defense. The priority is preventing RF forces from widening the breach.
• Strategic Capability: UAF has confirmed the delivery of Storm Shadow missiles (previous daily report) and the development of new domestic missiles ("Flamingo," "Ruta") and drones (Zelenskyy statement). This provides strategic depth and strike options.
• Personnel Policy: UAF MoD is preparing new types of contracts for service members. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT: Signals effort to professionalize and manage personnel rotation/mobilization constraints. HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Confirmed successful SSO strikes on RF POL/MTS depots in Luhansk Oblast, impacting RF operational logistics.
• Capture of an RF saboteur/infiltrator posing as an "Azov" member (previous daily report), confirming successful UAF counter-intelligence action in the rear.
• High morale demonstrated by awarded engineers of the 46th Airmobile Brigade (DSHV).

Setbacks:

• Confirmed RF penetration into the southern quarters of Pokrovsk. This is the most serious immediate setback.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate constraint is the need for rapid allocation of:

1. Urban Combat Specialists: Reserves trained for DAD to reinforce the 68th Brigade in Pokrovsk.
2. Mobile AD/EW Assets: To counter the multi-vector UAV strike approaching central and northern infrastructure.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Focus (Atrocity Amplification): RF milbloggers (Alex Parker, Colonelcassad) are heavily amplifying video footage claiming UAF drone strikes on civilians/surrendering personnel near Kupyansk. Intent: To discredit UAF forces, generate internal morale decline among RF forces (by discouraging surrender/capture), and apply diplomatic pressure via "sponsoring terrorism" claims (TASS statement). (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT: Classic information operation to generate outrage and deter RF surrender. HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Narrative: UAF messaging focuses on resilience (new defense contracts) and self-sufficiency (domestic missile production).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The confirmed power outage schedules for Kyiv (RBC-Ukraine message) confirm RF's ongoing success in degrading the energy grid, which will impact civilian morale and economic activity. This information must be managed carefully by UAF media to prevent panic while preparing the public for necessary resilience measures.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The confirmation of the new Storm Shadow delivery (previous daily report) remains the key positive international development, directly enhancing UAF kinetic options.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will focus on consolidating the Pokrovsk penetration and maximizing deep strike impact.

1. Pokrovsk Consolidation: RF forces within southern Pokrovsk will utilize night/low-light conditions to fortify their positions, set up ambush points (snipers/ATGM teams), and attempt to push reconnaissance elements toward key intersections within the city center (e.g., in the direction of Myrnohrad road junction).
2. Coordinated UAV Strikes: The detected UAV groups in Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv Oblasts will strike their primary targets (CI, logistics depots, or C2 nodes) between 2200Z and 0400Z.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 48 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Tactical Encirclement of Pokrovsk Center: RF commits heavy mechanized reserves (e.g., tank/BMP elements) to exploit the southern penetration, aiming to cut off UAF forces fighting in the eastern quarters of Pokrovsk and secure the T-0504 highway to the west/southwest.
2. Destruction of Key Central CI: A successful, synchronized RF strike (UAVs combined with potential ballistic/cruise missiles) on a key power generation facility (e.g., Zaporizhzhia or Dnipro region) leading to prolonged, widespread power failure across the central axis, significantly degrading C2 and logistical flow to the Donetsk front.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Ground Forces (Pokrovsk): URGENT URBAN COUNTER-CLEARANCE. Immediately task specialized urban warfare units (if available) and the 68th Jaeger Brigade to initiate night/early morning counter-clearance operations to dislodge entrenched RF forces from Pokrovsk's southern quarters. Prioritize the use of precision indirect fires (mortars/artillery) against RF support/assembly positions immediately outside the penetration zone. (CRITICAL PRIORITY)
2. AD Command (Central/Northern Axis): MAXIMUM INTERDICTION EFFORT. Allocate all necessary mobile AD/EW resources to create layered defense along the flight paths toward Dnipro, Poltava, and Chernihiv/Mena to protect CI and military C2 nodes from the currently inbound UAV waves. (CRITICAL PRIORITY)
3. G2/J3 (Deep Strike Coordination): ACTIVATE STORM SHADOW TARGETING. Given the confirmation of new Storm Shadow deliveries and persistent RF logistics vulnerability (Tuapse, Luhansk depots), immediately execute targeting packages against identified high-value RF C2 or rear-area support nodes that directly sustain the Pokrovsk offensive. (HIGH PRIORITY)

//END SITREP//