Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 142100Z OCT 25 (ECHO UPDATE)

SUBJECT: RF Consolidates Gains in Velyka Novosilka Axis; UAF Forces Compelled to Order Evacuation in Kupyansk/Kharkiv; Deep Strike Weaponry Dominates IO.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

TIME: 142100Z OCT 25 AFFECTED AXES: Velyka Novosilka (Tactical Advance), Kupyansk/Kharkiv (Forced Evacuation/IO Pressure), Kyiv (CII Pressure), Siversk/Krasny Lyman (IO Focus).

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture shows a significant, localized RF tactical success in the Velyka Novosilka area concurrent with increased RF pressure and the imposition of a forced civilian evacuation in the Kupyansk/Kharkiv sector.

• RF Tactical Success in Velyka Novosilka Direction (CRITICAL): DeepState analysts confirm RF forces have occupied a tactical salient encompassing Myrne, Perebudova, and Komar (Velyka Novosilka Direction, Donetsk Oblast). This represents a confirmed loss of territory and grants RF a better operational foothold on the western side of the Mokri Yaly River Valley, threatening defensive positions further west. (FACT: DeepState Map Analysis; CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Forced Evacuation in Kupyansk District (OPERATIONAL SHIFT): The Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration (OVA) has announced mandatory evacuation of families with children from 40 settlements in the Kupyansk district. This is a direct measure taken in response to relentless RF kinetic pressure (artillery, KABs) and indicates a high risk of localized RF breakthrough or the unsuitability of the area for sustained civilian life. (FACT: Kharkiv OVA Announcement; CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Infrastructure Attacks on Kyiv: An emergency situation is reported in Kyiv regarding water supply, with pressure reduced to a minimum on the right bank due to an accident/damage. While the cause is unconfirmed as a kinetic strike, this follows the pattern of RF targeting Critical Infrastructure (CII) and warrants monitoring. (FACT: KMDA Report; CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clearer evening conditions may slightly mitigate the effectiveness of thermal-guided RF FPV drones (as seen in RF MoD footage) but low light continues to favor RF air-delivered systems operating near the border (KABs).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF Forces: UAF Southern Front (Velyka Novosilka) forces are assessed to be conducting a withdrawal or deliberate defense consolidation following the loss of the Myrne-Komar salient. UAF forces in the Kharkiv sector are actively managing the civilian evacuation while maintaining defensive lines under heavy fire.
• RF Forces: RF is successfully employing integrated drone-FPV-artillery operations (MoD footage confirms destruction of M198 howitzer and infantry positions). The 'Akhmat-Chechnya' 1434th Regiment footage confirms high-tempo, multi-layered drone operations, prioritizing the destruction of UAF artillery and personnel. RF continues to use the Siversk/Krasny Lyman axis as an IO fixation point.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

(CAPABILITIES):

• Integrated Multi-Domain Strike: RF demonstrates effective integration of reconnaissance UAVs, FPV attack drones, and conventional artillery, particularly effective against static UAF equipment and trench lines.
• Persistent Ground Attrition: RF has sufficient capacity to sustain localized tactical advances in key areas (Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk) despite systemic fuel shortages, likely by prioritizing fuel allocation to specific axes.

(INTENTIONS):

1. Exploit Velyka Novosilka Salient: RF intends to reinforce and exploit the newly secured positions around Myrne/Komar to press deeper into the Velyka Novosilka defensive sector.
2. Force UAF Retreat in Kupyansk: RF is deliberately escalating kinetic pressure (artillery, KABs) in the Kupyansk sector to compel UAF to commit reserves or retreat, securing a significant propaganda victory (RF IO: "Kupyansk is falling").
3. Weaponize US Aid Announcement: RF IO is actively shaping the narrative around the anticipated US aid announcement (Tomahawk reference), attempting to simultaneously dismiss its impact while signaling concern (Военкор Котенок references "Tomahawks").

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed loss of the Myrne-Komar area suggests a localized failure in UAF defense integration or successful RF operational synchronization, contradicting the previous focus on Pokrovsk as the sole main effort. RF is demonstrating increased tactical competence in small-unit drone warfare.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Despite the strategic fuel crisis (Irkutsk shortages), RF is clearly able to sustain offensive operations and high-volume artillery/drone use on select axes (Kupyansk, Velyka Novosilka). This suggests immediate front-line fuel rationing is effective, though strategically unsustainable over the long term.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is effectively synchronizing tactical ground pressure (Velyka Novosilka advance) with IO objectives (Kupyansk evacuation/Siversk narrative), demonstrating cohesive operational direction despite the strategic logistical headwinds.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are facing operational challenges, evidenced by the loss of the Myrne/Komar salient and the necessity of mandatory evacuations in Kupyansk. Readiness remains high for defensive operations, but the high operational tempo is stretching local resources.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. PPO Confirmation: UAF Army Aviation confirms the destruction of an RF Shahed UAV, demonstrating continued PPO effectiveness against loitering munitions.

Setbacks:

1. Velyka Novosilka Territorial Loss: Confirmed loss of Myrne, Perebudova, and Komar presents a significant tactical setback and exposes adjacent UAF defensive lines.
2. Kupyansk Evacuation: Mandatory evacuation of 40 settlements confirms UAF defensive difficulties and provides RF with a major IO talking point.
3. Kyiv CII Vulnerability: Reduced water pressure in Kyiv underscores persistent vulnerability of civil infrastructure to kinetic or non-kinetic disruption.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The most immediate requirements are:

1. Immediate Reserves: Commitment of tactical reserves or the establishment of a robust counter-attack/stop-line west of the Myrne-Komar salient.
2. Counter-Drone Assets: Increased deployment of EW and short-range kinetic counter-UAV systems to protect forward artillery (e.g., M198 howitzers) targeted by RF FPV drones.
3. CII Repair/Protection: Urgent assessment and repair of the Kyiv water infrastructure damage.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF IO Focus: Victory Narrative: RF milbloggers are intensely focused on two narratives: "Kupyansk is falling" (leveraging the evacuation announcement) and demonstrating RF tactical drone superiority (MoD/Kadyrov videos).
• RF IO Focus: US Aid Pre-bunking: RF channels (Котенок, Colonelcassad) are proactively discussing the potential US supply of Tomahawk missiles, attempting to diminish the aid package's future impact via ridicule and cynicism, confirming the importance of tomorrow's announcement.
• UAF IO Focus: Resilience: UAF channels are focusing on immediate domestic resilience (Kyiv metro functioning) and validating strategic international support (Trump's Tomahawk comments).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is likely stressed by the mandatory evacuations in Kharkiv and the domestic infrastructure failures (Kyiv water), despite the morale boost from the earlier Feodosia strike. The focus on Tomahawk missiles indicates high public hope for a decisive game-changing weapon system.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The explicit mention of Tomahawk missiles by former President Trump (repeated across UAF and RF channels) raises the potential ceiling for tomorrow's US aid announcement. This is a critical development, setting an extremely high expectation for the scale and lethality of the package.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA 1 (Velyka Novosilka Consolidation): RF forces will spend the next 48 hours consolidating control over Myrne, Perebudova, and Komar, establishing prepared defensive positions, and staging for further probes toward the west, aiming to achieve a deeper penetration into the Velyka Novosilka defensive zone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

MLCOA 2 (Kupyansk Attrition Sustained): RF artillery and KAB strikes against logistical and administrative centers in the Kupyansk district will continue unabated, aiming to convert the mandatory evacuation into a full UAF operational withdrawal or collapse of the local defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

MLCOA 3 (Siversk Fixing Attack): RF VDV units, highly publicized in IO, will launch limited, high-profile probing attacks near Siversk/Krasny Lyman to fix UAF attention and prevent the reallocation of reserves to the more critical Kupyansk or Velyka Novosilka sectors. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA 1 (Exploitation of Kupyansk Break/CII Failure): RF coordinates a high-intensity kinetic breakthrough attempt in the Kupyansk sector, exploiting the administrative chaos of the mass evacuation, while simultaneously executing a massed strike (missile/drone) against Kyiv's central C2 or CII nodes, potentially crippling civil-military coordination. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Decision Point (Velyka Novosilka Counter-Action): Immediate - 24 hours. UAF must decide whether to launch a localized counter-attack to regain the Myrne-Komar salient or establish a new, hardened stop-line further west to prevent deeper RF penetration.
• Decision Point (Kupyansk Reserves): Immediate - 48 hours. UAF must determine the optimal force posture in Kupyansk—reinforce heavily to hold the current line or manage a structured withdrawal to pre-prepared secondary positions.
• Decision Point (US Aid Impact): 151500Z OCT. The content of the US aid package will significantly affect RF and UAF long-term targeting and strategic resource allocation.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Immediate Response to Velyka Novosilka Loss:

   • Recommendation: Prioritize the establishment of a hardened defensive line immediately west of the Komar/Myrne salient. Execute immediate counter-battery fire against confirmed RF artillery operating in the newly captured area, leveraging the RF concentration. DO NOT commit strategic reserves to recapture the salient without full ISR coverage.
   • Action: UAF Southern Command to establish a temporary tactical headquarters (TAC HQ) in the Velyka Novosilka rear by 142300Z OCT to coordinate local defense.

2. Mitigate Kupyansk Attrition and Evacuation Chaos:

   • Recommendation: Utilize the mandatory evacuation period to conduct targeted precision strikes against RF assets closest to the evacuation zones, minimizing RF ability to fire into civilian traffic. Synchronize military counter-fire with the final phases of civilian movement.
   • Action: UAF Eastern Command to designate all main evacuation routes as No-Fire Zones (NFZ) for UAF artillery while simultaneously increasing counter-battery fire on RF positions threatening these routes.

3. Harden Critical Infrastructure (CII) in Capital:

   • Recommendation: Treat the Kyiv water supply incident as a confirmed attack until proven otherwise. Immediately deploy military engineering and security detachments to key water, power, and communications nodes in Kyiv to prevent cascading failures.
   • Action: UAF Home Front Command to brief the Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) on enhanced security protocols for all critical utility facilities by 150100Z OCT.

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