Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 122130Z OCT 25 (UPDATE 18)

SUBJECT: RF Kinetic Shaping Continues Theater-Wide; UAF Deep Strike Confirmed on Feodosia; UAV Waves Recommence Post-Strike.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture remains dominated by the RF pre-strike kinetic shaping operation (UAV waves) and the UAF counter-strike campaign against high-value RF logistics.

• Crimea (Deep Strike BDA): RF occupation authorities (Aksenov, TASS) confirm that despite intercepting 20 UAVs over Feodosia, one successfully struck the Feodosia oil depot, causing a fire (FACT - RF/UAF; CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This successful counter-value strike maintains pressure on RF logistics in the Southern Operational Zone.
• Air Activity (IMMEDIATE NEW): The Ukrainian Air Force (UAF AF) reports multiple groups of RF UAVs/drones:
  1. UAVs detected moving on the South-Eastern direction from Eastern Zaporizhzhia (FACT - UAF AF; CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  2. UAVs detected moving southward toward Kharkiv from the North (FACT - UAF AF; CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Clear conditions continue to facilitate both RF UAV operations (which are primarily night operations) and UAF deep strikes.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF PPO assets are currently being activated/redeployed in response to the newly detected UAV waves in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. This confirms the RF operational tempo remains high, immediately seeking to exploit any perceived lull or PPO repositioning following the Crimea strike.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

(CAPABILITIES):

• Persistent UAV Saturation: RF demonstrates the capability to immediately launch new UAV waves following a successful UAF deep strike (Feodosia), sustaining the pressure on UAF PPO assets in multiple operational sectors (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia).
• Hybrid Warfare/IO Integration: RF media and milbloggers (NTP raZVedka, Colonelcassad) immediately and systematically integrate information operations with kinetic events, targeting Ukrainian morale and C2 credibility during the strikes.

(INTENTIONS):

1. Maintain PPO Pressure (IMMEDIATE): Continue the multi-axis UAV saturation to fix and exhaust UAF PPO assets and MFGs in the East and South, maintaining the pre-strike conditions for MLCOA 1 (Strategic Missile Strike).
2. Exploit Feodosia Strike IO: Immediately utilize the Feodosia strike (a legitimate UAF success) to amplify IO narratives of civilian suffering and government inadequacy (metro footage) ahead of the anticipated strategic strike.
3. Monitor US Political Signaling: RF sources are closely monitoring and amplifying statements by former US President Trump regarding potential settlements in Ukraine.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed UAV launches targeting Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia so soon after the Feodosia BDA suggests RF has a pre-planned sequence of operations designed to keep UAF PPO systems constantly reacting, preventing rest or effective redeployment. This is a high-tempo, multi-layered shaping operation.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The confirmed damage to the Feodosia oil depot further compounds RF logistical friction in Crimea and the Southern Front, necessitating increased reliance on the Kerch Bridge and alternative supply routes.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, executing complex, multi-domain operations (UAVs, IO, strategic signaling).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking) (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are successfully executing deep strikes against high-value RF assets while simultaneously battling renewed multi-axis UAV attacks. The readiness state remains heightened across the central, northern, and eastern axes in anticipation of the predicted MLCOA 1.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Deep Strike): Confirmed, impactful damage to the Feodosia oil depot, degrading RF sustainment.
• Challenge (PPO Strain): UAF PPO is immediately placed back under stress by renewed UAV activity in two distinct operational sectors (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate need for PPO interceptors remains the most significant constraint. Every UAV shot down reduces the available arsenal for countering the predicted massed missile strike (MLCOA 1).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain) (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narrative of Abandonment (Immediate): RF milbloggers (NTP raZVedka) immediately deploy emotionally charged videos of civilians in Kyiv metro shelters, directly accusing President Zelensky of hiding and failing the population. This is a direct psychological operation aimed at fracturing the relationship between the government and the populace immediately preceding the predicted strategic strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Amplification of Western Skepticism (Strategic): RF state media and affiliated channels are heavily amplifying commentary from former US President Trump regarding a desire for a rapid settlement of the Ukraine conflict and the supposed conclusion of the Gaza conflict. The intent is to signal to the Ukrainian population that international support is weakening and political pressure for a disadvantageous peace is rising. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment in Kyiv and major cities remains highly focused on reliable air defense. The renewed use of metro shelters for political messaging by RF indicates that civil defense measures themselves are becoming a target for IO aimed at generating dissatisfaction and panic.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA 1 (Massed Strategic Missile Strike - Kyiv/Dnipro/Sumy): All kinetic and informational shaping operations are complete or near completion. The current UAV waves are the final pre-strike harassment phase. RF will execute the multi-layered missile strike, likely initiating with a heavy decoy/UAV wave, followed by ballistic and cruise missiles. Strike window remains NLT 131800Z OCT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

MLCOA 2 (Sustained Attrition & Localized Assault): RF will maintain high-intensity artillery and KAB pressure along the Eastern Contact Line (Kupiansk/Lyman/Donetsk), synchronized with the strategic strike to fix UAF reserves and distract C2. The confirmed UAV activity in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia supports this attempt to stretch UAF resources immediately prior to the strategic phase. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA 1 (Strategic Air Interdiction/Decapitation - Synchronized Multi-Role Strike): No change. The threat remains that RF integrates long-range, high-supersonic assets (e.g., Kinzhal) targeting national/military C2 nodes while simultaneously launching a high-volume UAV/cruise missile attack to saturate and neutralize PPO defenses. The goal is to maximize C2 degradation during the critical time window. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• UAV Engagement Window: The current UAV activity is anticipated to peak between 122200Z and 130200Z OCT.
• Decision Point (PPO Allocation): UAF PPO leadership must decide on the extent to which the current UAV waves (Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia) are engaged versus conserving interceptors for the MLCOA 1 missile strike (NLT 131800Z OCT).
• Decision Point (IO Counter): Immediate C2 decision is required to counter the RF propaganda related to the Kyiv metro and national leadership (NLT 122300Z OCT).

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Strict PPO Interceptor Management (TACTICAL URGENCY):

   • Recommendation: Given the imminence of MLCOA 1, issue a directive for highly selective engagement of the current UAV waves (Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia). Prioritize using Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) utilizing low-cost ammunition (e.g., AA guns, MANPADS) over scarce high-value interceptors (e.g., NASAMS, IRIS-T, HAWK) for these current targets. Reserve high-value interceptors exclusively for the defense of MLCOA 1's anticipated targets (Kyiv/Dnipro C2).
   • Action: Direct local military administrations (Oblast/Rayon) in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv to immediately activate all PPO MFGs.

2. Immediate IO Counter-Messaging to Mitigate Metro Propaganda (HIGH INFORMATION URGENCY):

   • Recommendation: Rapidly counter the RF propaganda exploiting civilian sheltering in Kyiv metros. The silence amplifies the RF narrative of abandonment.
   • Action: Presidential Administration/General Staff IO to release a short, high-visibility statement within the next hour (NLT 122230Z OCT) acknowledging the RF psychological campaign, thanking citizens for adhering to shelter rules, and confirming that military leadership is fully operational and commanding the defense from secure locations.

3. Reinforce Frontline Defenses Against Attrition (OPERATIONAL URGENCY):

   • Recommendation: Anticipate that the RF will increase pressure on the Eastern axes during the MLCOA 1 missile strike phase. Reinforce command redundancy and counter-battery fire plans in the Kupiansk-Lyman sectors.
   • Action: Pre-position counter-battery assets (e.g., HIMARS, Caesar) to engage RF multiple rocket launcher systems (MRLS) and large-caliber artillery systems used for kinetic shaping (KAB, TOS-1A) to provide fire support to frontline units during the strategic strike period.

//END REPORT//